Flash Flood and Hail in Nebraska, June 6, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
313 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

An upper level ridge remained in place over the central
CONUS today.  Locally, isolated showers and storms continued to
diminish as they drifted across northeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa late this morning.  It was another hot day as temperatures
climbed to around 10 degrees above normal, reaching the low to mid
90s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.  A few areas of
convection were beginning to bubble around 3pm this afternoon
from northwest Iowa through south-central Nebraska.

More showers and storms will continue to develop along an old
outflow boundary from an MCS that moved through Minnesota early this
morning.  CAMs continue to depict storms popping up across central
Iowa shortly before 00Z this evening, and gradually develop west
along the boundary into eastern Nebraska. Storms will then surge
southeast, reaching the northern Missouri border after midnight. The
SPC has placed us in a Slight Risk for severe storms this evening.
Abundant low level moisture will help produce around 4000 J/kg of
CAPE across the region.  While this large amount of instability will
be enough to create intense updrafts, capable of producing some
large hail and strong winds, shear will be a limiting factor these
storms.  With only 20 to 35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, it seems as
though storms may struggle to stay organized, especially in eastern
Nebraska.

Additional showers and storms will develop across west-central
portions of Nebraska and Kansas overnight as an upper level
disturbance tracks along the ridge. Supported by the low level jet,
this convection will likely bring lingering precipitation to the
forecast area through Thursday morning. There may be a brief lull in
convective activity late morning/early Thursday afternoon before
showers and storms are kicked off once again around 00Z Friday. For
now we will remain in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. While the
bulk shear may be slightly better, up to 40 kts, instability is less
impressive.  Relief from the heat will come Thursday with highs only
in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Showers and storms will move out of the region Friday morning,
allowing afternoon temperatures to climb back towards 90.  Yet
another weak disturbance will track along the ridge Friday night,
into Saturday morning, followed by another ripple in the upper level
flow Saturday night. Temperatures over the weekend will remain in
the upper 80s and lower 90s.  The ridge across the nation's
midsection will finally be broken down early next week, as a large
low pressure system pushes into western Canada.  While models
diverge on solutions in regards to precipitation, they do agree that
a cold front associated with this system will bring temperatures
back down into the mid 80s through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon outside isolated TSRA
areas. Some solutions have TSRA near KOMA, while others are
farther north. For now, included VCTS/TSRA mention at both
KOFK/KOMA after 23Z and VCTS at KLNK later tonight. Some 10 to
20kts winds this afternoon form the south at KOMA and KLNK. Also
mentioned gusty winds with the TSRA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...Zapotocny

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
349 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071100-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
349 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible tonight. The
primary hazards will be damaging winds,large hail, lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Wednesday

On and off thunderstorm chances will continue into early next
week with isolated severe weather possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
401 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAZ043-055-NEZ034-062145-
Monona IA-Harrison IA-Burt NE-
401 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONONA...
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON AND EASTERN BURT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Tekamah, or 43 miles south of Sioux City, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tekamah, Mondamin, Pisgah, Blencoe, Magnolia, Little Sioux, Pelican
Point State Recreation Area, Willow Lake Recreation Area, Little
Sioux Scout Ranch and Preparation Canyon State Park.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Iowa...and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4184 9635 4200 9623 4182 9569 4159 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 299DEG 21KT 4189 9621

Heinlein