NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 10:49 PM CST, 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 10:49 PM CST, 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1149 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018
.UPDATE...
Zero to 1 km mixed layer CAPE around 900 joules/kg in areas
southwest of Madison and 400 joules/kg far southeast. zero to 1 km
shear around 30 knots until it weakens around 1 am. RAP soundings
have low level shear decreasing as low level winds become more
south. CAPE diminishes overnight.
&&
.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...
Bands of showers continue to move across the area with scattered
thunderstorms. Ceilings will fall to MVFR, and then IFR early
tomorrow morning. IFR/MVFR will then persist for much of Friday,
Winds will be southeasterly, becoming more southerly this
morning. Some gustiness is also possible, especially closer to
Lake Michigan. As low pressure moves across winds will become
north mainly Friday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 907 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018)
UPDATE...
Zero to 1 km mixed layer CAPE around 900 joules/kg in areas
southwest of Madison. EHI values increase to around 0.5 in these
areas, but the highest EHI's remain across Iowa and northern
Illinois, where the severe threat is higher. A few storms in
northeast Illinois have some weak/moderate rotation. RAP soundings
have low level shear decreasing rather quickly as low level winds
become more south in areas southwest of Madison. CAPE diminishes
late evening and overnight.
MARINE...
Southeast winds will increase tonight into Friday morning, with
gusts between 20 and 25 knots Friday morning. Waves will build in
response, reaching 3-5 feet by tonight, and 4-7 feet by tomorrow
morning. The highest winds will be north of Port Washington
between sunrise and mid day Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect starting at midnight tonight through Friday afternoon.
As the surface low moves overhead on Friday, winds will initially
decrease, and then will increase from the north as the low pushes
east. This will result in waves building once again on Saturday,
with 2-4 foot waves expected Saturday afternoon and night,
especially near open waters.
PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 541 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018)
UPDATE...
Zero to 1 km mixed layer CAPE continues to increase with around
1200 joules/kg in areas southwest of Madison. EHI values increase
to around 0.5 in these areas, but the highest EHI's remain across
Iowa and northern Illinois, where the severe threat is higher.
CAPE then diminishes late evening and overnight.
AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...
Bands of Light rain to continue to move east across the area.
isolated thunderstorms, especially south and west of Madison.
Initially, ceilings will be VFR, but will fall to MVFR this
evening, and IFR overnight into early tomorrow morning. IFR will
then likely persist for much of the day tomorrow, though brief
improvements to MVFR are possible.
Winds will be southeasterly today, becoming more southerly
tomorrow morning. Some gustiness is also possible, especially
closer to Lake Michigan.
PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018)
SHORT TERM...
Rest of this afternoon and tonight...Forecast confidence high.
An initial band of light rain is pushing to the east through the
forecast area this afternoon. Progress has been slow, with an
appreciable amount of ambient dry air limiting its progress.
Additional bands of rain, along with a few thunderstorms, will
develop behind this initial band later this afternoon and tonight
as the upper low gets closer. Waves of precipitation will then
continue overnight.
Temperatures this evening will fall into the 70s, with overnight
lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds will remain rather breezy
tonight as well, as surface low pressure approaches.
Friday through Saturday...Forecast confidence medium to high.
Friday and Friday evening look to be rather dreary, with numerous
showers and thunderstorms in the area. Rainfall rates won't be
terribly heavy, but much of the area could pick up between a
quarter and half inch of rain by the end of the day. Temperatures
will be in the low to mid 70s on Friday.
North winds pick up Friday night as the surface low pushes into
lower Michigan. Saturday will be quite breezy, with north winds
gusting to 20-25 MPH during the afternoon. Scattered showers are
also expected to continue Saturday, with a slow diminishing trend
Saturday night as the upper low pushes further southeast.
LONG TERM...
Sunday and Monday...Forecast confidence medium.
A few showers will persist Sunday morning, before the upper low
finally pushes far enough to the southeast to bring precip chances
to an end. Surface ridging will build into the area by Monday,
along with a slightly drier airmass. Highs on Sunday look to be
in the upper 70s, with readings in the low 80s by Monday.
Tuesday through next Thursday...Forecast confidence low.
The region becomes situated in an area of fairly swift zonal to
slightly northwesterly flow aloft by mid week next week as the
western US ridge strengthens a bit and shifts south toward Baja.
Some frontal passages look likely during this stretch, though
exact timing and strength (and available moisture) are difficult
to pin down at this point. Such a pattern would suggest
temperatures at or below normal during this time.
AVIATION(21Z TAF Update)...
Light rain continues to slowly move east into the area. Initially,
ceilings will be VFR, but will fall to MVFR this evening, and IFR
overnight into early tomorrow morning. IFR will then likely
persist for much of the day tomorrow, though brief improvements to
MVFR are possible.
Winds will be southeasterly today, becoming more southerly
tomorrow morning. Some gustiness is also possible, especially
closer to Lake Michigan.
MARINE...
Southeast winds will increase this evening into Friday morning,
with gusts between 20 and 25 knots Friday morning. Waves will
build in response, reaching 3-5 feet by tonight, and 4-7 feet by
tomorrow morning. The highest winds will be north of Port
Washington between sunrise and mid day Friday. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect starting at midnight tonight through Friday
afternoon.
As the surface low moves overhead on Friday, winds will initially
decrease, and then will increase from the north as the low pushes
east. This will result in waves building once again on Saturday,
with 2-4 foot waves expected Saturday afternoon and night,
especially near open waters.
BEACHES...
Onshore flow and building waves will result in a high swim risk
tonight and through the day on Friday. Rip currents will be
possible, along with dangerous currents near piers and breakwalls.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for WIZ052-060-
066-071-072.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LMZ643>646.
&&
Update...Hentz
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Friday Night through Thursday...Boxell