An intense complex of thunderstorms moved across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours of July 19th. Several reports of wind speeds greater than 70 MPH were received.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
An intense complex of thunderstorms moved across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours of July 19th. Several reports of wind speeds greater than 70 MPH were received.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 11:34 AM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1048 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Latest visible imagery shows increasing ACCAS over northwest KS along a weak surface trough/boundary. Meanwhile a very humid airmass continues to heat up over the forecast area with dewpoints holding in the lower and mid 70s and temps already into the 90s. RAP progs show a very unstable airmass developing by the early afternoon with MUCAPE values likely between 4000 and 5000 J/kg. The past several runs of the HRRR have shown isolated to scattered convection developing in the vicinity of where the ACCAS is now and moving east generally along the I-70 Corridor. Because of this I've increased POPs across the forecast area into the 40 and 50 percent range through the afternoon. Storms could impact the area by 2 PM. The bigger concern will be for damaging winds. Although deep layer shear of 50kt would be supportive for rotating updrafts and some risk for large hail as well. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Yesterday evening a midlevel shortwave trough over South Dakota provided the lift for convective activity across northeast and central Nebraska. A few of those storms consolidated into cluster is currently moving southward through eastern Nebraska. The environment ahead of the cluster consist of MUCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear on the order of 50 kt, so embedded updrafts may rotate especially on the southwest flank, which has been forecasted by several CAMs. Given the environment these storms could produce large hail as well as damaging wind gusts. As of now there is a lack of a well established cold pool, but upscale growth is still possible. If that happens the damaging wind threat would increase given DCAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg. There is some concern that warmer temperatures around 750-700 mb will increase the CIN causing the storms to weaken. The greatest chances for severe storms is mainly across northern and northeastern Kansas through the late morning, and there is a watch is effect until 8 AM for those locations. Later this afternoon the midlevel shortwave continues eastward over IA with the trough axis extended southwestward over the region. This along with the midlevel speed max over Nebraska will provide some large-scale lift. Several CAMs are depicting redevelopment this afternoon along the effective outflow boundary that could reside in far eastern Kansas from the morning activity. Also, a weak surface trough orientated west-east will move southward through the forecast area this afternoon. Model soundings suggest a mostly uncapped environment so convective initiation may be possible along that boundary as well. The other concern today will be the temperatures and heat indices approaching advisory criteria. With the potential for convection and increased cloud cover the temperatures and instability may be suppressed in spots. Most locations though should reach 100-105 unless the cloud cover is more expansive, so the advisory continues. If storms do develop MLCAPE will range from 1500- 2500 with 50 kt of effective bulk shear so rotating updrafts can not be ruled out. If temperatures manage to reach the mid to upper 90s the boundary layer will mix up to about 2 km so damaging wind gusts will certainly be a threat. Large hail is also possible given the relatively straight elongated hodographs that could favor splitting cells. This is supported by the high-resolution models that paint helicity swaths in east central Kansas. Tonight the boundary pushes just south of the forecast area allowing the potential for isentropic lift. The model solutions vary widely for this time frame so have kept chances through the overnight. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Saturday, the upper low across southern Lake MI at 12Z SAT will amplify as it digs southeast towards the central OH River Valley. An upper level ridge across TX/NM border will amplify northward into the Central High Plains. The weak surface ridge will continue to build southward across KS during the afternoon hours. Highs on Saturday may be slightly cooler with light north- northeast winds. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Saturday night through Tuesday, the upper low across the central OH river valley will dig southward towards the central Gulf Coast, and become detached from the main mid level H5 jet across the northern Conus. The upper ridge across the southern and central High Plains will retrograde slowly west into the Southwestern US. Expect mainly dry conditions with a near stationary surface ridge axis extending from the upper Midwest into central TX. Expect mostly dry conditons with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tuesday night through Thursday, the upper ridge across the southwest US will amplify which will cause the mid and upper level winds to become more northwesterly across the central plains. Minor perturbations may be embedded within northwesterly mid-level flow and may provide enough ascent for a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the western and northern counties of the CWA. Highs may be a bit cooler with mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Focus is on convection this afternoon. The convective allowing models have not been very good recently, but feel like TS are likely to impact the terminals given large amounts of instability. Have a tempo group in for the most likely window and will amend as the TS timing becomes more apparent. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ026-039-040- 054>056-058-059. && UPDATE...Wolters SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...Gargan AVIATION...Wolters
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 1056 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201600- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 1056 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over north central Kansas and move east early this afternoon, generally along and south of the interstate 70 corridor. These storms could be capable of producing damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph, as well as some large hail possibly up to the size of golfballs. Heat index values are expected to reach 100 to 105 degrees This afternoon afternoon across east central Kansas. A Heat Advisory is in effect for this area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be needed by 2 PM across north central Kansas and continuing through the afternoon over east central and parts or northeast Kansas. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep Wolters
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:47 UTC.
44 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gust was estimated by a trained spotter.
Wind gust was estimated by the public.
Multiple reports of medium-sized tree limbs down.
The wind gust was estimated.
A tree trunk in 1-2 feet in diameter was snapped at the base of the trunk. The report was received via a social media photo.
Wind gust was estimated.
Wind gust was estimated.
Social media picture showing a tree approximately 1 foot in diameter snapped.
City of Manhattan Municipal Government social media page posted a picture of a metal pole for a large street sign/stoplight that stretches over an intersection breaking at the base of the pole.
Very large tree limbs reported down. Estimated size was 10 inches in diameter.
Estimated wind gust report.
Measured wind gust at the Manhattan airport.
Estimated wind gust report.
Estimated wind gust report.
An 8 inch diameter tree limb was reported down.
Estimated wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph.
Several tree limbs up to 10 inch in diameter were down.
Estimated wind gust report.
One foot diameter tree were uprooted.
Social media pictures of a large tree down on a house near 31st and Fairlawn in Topeka.
Numerous trees and large tree branches down, some blocking roads.
Three foot diameter tree 20 to 30 feet tall were split and were blocking traffic.
Social media pictures of multiple business signs and power poles down on 29th street between Fairlawn and Wanamaker.
The wind gust was observed at Billard Airport.
Thunderstorm wind gust report from 1 mile southeast of Pauline (Forbes Field).
Large 1 to 2 foot diameter tree branches were snapped.
The wind gust was estimated.
Estimated wind gust report.
A roof was blown off of a house.
Wind gusts of 60-70 MPH with pea size hail.
Estimated wind gust.
Estimated wind gust.
Small tree snapped near the base of the tree trunk.
Estimated wind gust.
Wind gust observed at the Lawrence airport.
Medium to large tree limbs were reported down.
Medium to large tree limbs were reported down.
Tree and building damage was reported across town. The size and extent of the damage was unknown.
Shingles were blown off of a house.
Large tree branches were reported down.
Wind gust was estimated.
Estimated wind gust.
Estimated peak gusts up to 90 MPH.
Pictures on social media of a 10 inch diameter tree snapped.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 776236, 776237, 776240, 776286, 776287, 776288, 776289, 776290, 776291, 776292, 776293, 776294, 776295, 776296, 776297, 776298, 776299, 776300, 776301, 776302, 776303, 776304, 776305, 776306, 776307, 776308, 776309, 776310, 776311, 776312, 776313, 776314, 776315, 776316, 776317, 776318, 776319, 776320, 776324, 776325, and more.