What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 12:40 AM EST, 1 hour earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 12:40 AM EST, 1 hour before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1240 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably mild, moist air in place, until a cold front
crosses early Friday morning. High pressure Friday night. Low
pressure late Saturday/Saturday night. High pressure Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 10 PM Thursday...Added the mention of a slight chance of a
thunderstorm. Instability should remain just strong enough
overnight to see some embedded thunderstorms into early Friday
morning.
As of 825 PM Thursday...Tweaked PoP again with this update.
Shower activity is becoming more widespread in Ohio just out
ahead of the approaching cold front and will be progressing
eastward of the next few hours. This front is oriented from WSW
to ENE and it is very slowly moving to the SE. As such, heavy
rainfall will move very slowly across the region late tonight
and through Friday morning out ahead of the front. The cold
front will press across SE Ohio around sunrise and eventually
reach our eastern mountain counties by Friday afternoon. Still
looking at widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across
the Northern CWA and about an inch in the south.
As of 330 PM Thursday...Updated PoP through midnight with main
swath of rain generally to the north through then. However,
isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the south
this evening, but much lower chances here. Thereafter, went
with a HRRR Ensemble method for PoP through the overnight as
the front progresses southward into Friday morning.
As of 200 PM Thursday...
The airmass at the low levels continues saturated causing low
clouds and periods of rain showers. Radar images show the
rainfall activity has moved north across PA and WV border.
However, more scattered showers are evident on ILN radar, moving
east toward our area. Expect these rain showers to affect
southeast OH and portions of WV by 21Z. Models suggest plenty of
QPF mainly across the northern third of the area. In fact, WPC
has the same area under Slight risk for excessive rainfall
Friday. A cold front will squeeze the available moisture into
moderate to heavy rain showers. With the soils already
saturated, and some rivers or streams have reacted from previous
rain, the threat for river flooding continues. Therefore, the
Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening.
Low temperatures tonight will be warm, in the mid to upper 50s.
The high temperatures forecast for Friday will occur during the
early morning hours, with a non-diurnal trend under cold air
advection through Friday afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...
By Friday night, maybe just a few upslope snow showers across
the mountains, but overall things will be fairly quiet. Rain
will push back into the area on Saturday as another wave of low
pressure moves east. Guidance is in fairly good agreement now
with keeping the heaviest rain with this across SW Virginia and
Eastern West Virginia. These areas were recently hit hard just
last weekend with over 3 inches of rain, so although this
system should only drop a half inch to an inch of rain, it could
still cause some problems due to the wet antecedent conditions.
Also, in the mix with this system will be the cold air hanging
around in the Northern West Virginia Mountains for wintry
precipitation to fall. Expecting to see a wintry mix with
possibly just all snow in the higher elevations. 2 to 4 inches
of snow is not out of the question for the highest terrain and
some icing with a freezing rain/sleet mix will also be possible.
High pressure builds back in over the area on Sunday and brings
at least a brief period of dry conditions to end the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...
Forecast guidance really diverges after Sunday. Ensemble and
operational guidance does keep on the periphery of a Bermuda
High pressure, with very warm conditions expected with deep
southwesterly return flow. This will also keep plenty of
moisture readily available in the area, but timing and tracks of
several waves next week will determine how wet the forecast is.
GFS is currently much more active and wet than the Euro through
the week, with several waves pushing through the area. With the
uncertainty, have leaned heavily on a blend of ensemble and
operational guidance for the long range forecast. Will have to
continue to monitor as we head into next week, as the pattern
does suggest that more heavy rain and flooding could be
possible.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Friday...
Line of convective showers now pushing into the Ohio River.
Expecting strong gusts with this line upon passage, but below
40kts. Brief IFR likely at the onset of the rain for some
locations, but otherwise, winds should keep visibilities MVFR
in rain without mist or fog forming simultaneously. Ceilings
down to IFR on passage of the cold front in the cold air
advection. Watch for the wind shifts with the frontal passage as
well. Current winds strong enough at the surface that LLWS
should not be an issue in the mild southwesterly flow.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes will likely vary
and is dependent on heavy rainfall.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 02/16/18
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M L L M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H M L M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H L M H H M H M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L H M L L M H L
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Periods of IFR possible in rain, fog and/or stratus early Saturday
and Saturday night.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...26Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 3:34 AM EST, 22 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
334 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018
KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-160845-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
334 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
Additional rounds of heavy rain are expected this weekend and next
week. Additional flood watches may be necessary.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Feb 15, 11:45 PM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1145 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018
OHZ075-083-084-160515-
Jackson-Athens-Vinton-
1145 PM EST THU FEB 15 2018
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
WEST CENTRAL ATHENS AND VINTON COUNTIES...
At 1145 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Hocking Hills State
Park to near Cynthiana. Movement was east at 40 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Mcarthur, Lake Hope State Park, Chauncey, Zaleski, Allensville,
Creola, Eagle Mills and Byer.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.
LAT...LON 3937 8275 3937 8252 3940 8251 3939 8229
3943 8228 3942 8208 3905 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 290DEG 36KT 3939 8267 3910 8337
12Special weather statement, Feb 16, 12:16 AM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1216 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018
OHZ075-083>086-160545-
Jackson-Athens-Meigs-Gallia-Vinton-
1216 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MEIGS...
NORTHERN GALLIA...JACKSON...SOUTHERN ATHENS AND SOUTHEASTERN VINTON
COUNTIES...
At 1216 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles south of Lake Hope State Park to
near Lucasville. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Wellston, Oak Hill, Rio Grande, Albany, Coolville, Rutland,
Tuppers Plains, Hamden, Coalton, Vinton, Wilkesville, Mabee,
Radcliffe, Dyesville, Darwin, Petersburg, Salem Center, Harrisonville
and Dexter.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.
LAT...LON 3906 8280 3928 8230 3924 8172 3922 8173
3884 8241 3886 8276 3894 8275 3895 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 297DEG 35KT 3923 8233 3895 8303
12Special weather statement, Feb 16, 12:45 AM EST, 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018
OHZ075-076-083-085-086-WVZ007>011-017-019-020-031-160615-
Jackson-Washington-Athens-Meigs-Gallia-Doddridge-Wirt-Wood-Jackson-
Harrison-Ritchie-Mason-Pleasants-Tyler-
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018
...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MEIGS...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
NORTHERN GALLIA...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN ATHENS...
WIRT...NORTHERN JACKSON...WOOD...NORTHERN HARRISON...PLEASANTS...
RITCHIE...NORTHERN MASON...DODDRIDGE AND TYLER COUNTIES...
At 1244 AM EST, radar indicated gusty, heavy showers were located
along a line extending from near Middlebourne to Oak Hill. Movement
was east at 70 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these showers.
Locations impacted include...
Parkersburg, Belpre, Point Pleasant, Gallipolis, Harrisville, St.
Marys, Pomeroy, Oak Hill, Rio Grande, Elizabeth, Middlebourne,
Racine, Coolville, Rutland, Forked Run State Park, Vienna,
Ravenswood, Shinnston, Salem and New Haven.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 141 and 184.
Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 69.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.
LAT...LON 3947 8071 3943 8054 3947 8048 3943 8028
3940 8020 3882 8184 3886 8275 3960 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 274DEG 60KT 3953 8082 3890 8254
12Special weather statement, Feb 16, 1:33 AM EST, 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
133 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018
WVZ008-016>020-029>031-039-040-160700-
Barbour-Calhoun-Jackson-Doddridge-Roane-Harrison-Ritchie-Wirt-Upshur-
Lewis-Gilmer-
133 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018
...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN RITCHIE...
SOUTHEASTERN DODDRIDGE...GILMER...LEWIS...NORTHWESTERN UPSHUR...
SOUTHEASTERN WIRT...CENTRAL ROANE...CENTRAL BARBOUR...EAST CENTRAL
JACKSON AND SOUTHERN HARRISON COUNTIES...
At 132 AM EST, radar indicated a line of heavy, gusty showers was
located along a line extending from 8 miles south of West Union to
near Ripley. Movement was east at 70 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these showers.
Locations impacted include...
Weston, Philippi, Spencer, Glenville, Grantsville, Jackson Mill,
Arnoldsburg, Cedar Creek State Park, Stonewall Jackson, Lost Creek,
Jane Lew, Reedy, Sand Fork, Auburn, Newberne, Stumptown, Tanner,
Camden, Volga and Lorentz.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Interstate 79 between mile markers 83 and 112.
Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 128 and 135.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.
LAT...LON 3887 8059 3890 8061 3888 8070 3866 8108
3871 8181 3875 8181 3918 8079 3921 7982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 270DEG 61KT 3917 8074 3875 8173
12NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 732187, 734165, 732139, 734156, 734160, 734161, 734162, 733484, 733480, 734171, 732197, 732135, 732192, 732236, 733481, 732161, 732208, 734157, 732225, 734178, 734873, 734863, 734868, 734862.