After Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph and a minimum central pressure of 919 mb on Wednesday October 10th, it weakened to a tropical storm as it tracked northeastward through Georgia and South Carolina. The tropical storm then tracked across North Carolina and southeast Virginia Thursday and Thursday night, October 11th, emerging…
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
After Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph and a minimum central pressure of 919 mb on Wednesday October 10th, it weakened to a tropical storm as it tracked northeastward through Georgia and South Carolina. The tropical storm then tracked across North Carolina and southeast Virginia Thursday and Thursday night, October 11th, emerging back into the Atlantic Ocean early Friday morning, October 12th. Ahead of the tropical storm, the strong low level wind field combined with some instability ahead of the storm to generate bands of showers and thunderstorms, one of which became severe. As the system passed south of the region, heavy rain then caused instances of flooding, and strong winds brought down trees. Across Virginia, maximum sustained winds reached 35 mph, peak wind gusts reached 46 mph, and some rainfall totals were observed in excess of 6 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 11, 9:08 AM EST, 5 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1008 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today before passing
through tonight. Tropical Storm Michael is expected to pass
southeast of the area tonight. High pressure will build toward
the region Friday, but an upper-level disturbance will pass
through Friday night into Saturday. High pressure will return
for later Saturday into Sunday before low pressure and its
associated cold front impacts the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is situated across eastern Ohio this morning as
Tropical Storm Michael resides over South Carolina, moving northeast
at 21 mph. The bulk of shower activity this morning has moved north
of the Mason Dixon Line into Pennsylvania. KLWX is still detecting
some fast moving and widely scattered showers pressing off to the
northeast at around 35 mph. The 12z IAD sounding sampled an
anomalously moist atmosphere with a daily record PWAT of 2.17
inches, besting the old record of 1.92 inches. South southwesterly
flow at the surface and aloft dominates, which will continue to
pump in tropical moisture across the region. Cloudy skies will
persist today for much of the region, with a few breaks
possible over southern MD and central VA. With plenty of cloud
cover in place, temperatures will range from middle 70s to near
80 degrees this afternoon. On going forecast remains on track
with no significant changes needed at this time.
Previous discussion follows:
By late afternoon, lift associated with the mid to upper level
jet along the approaching cold front will move overhead.
Virtually all guidance is in agreement with this, and a low-
level deformation zone extending north from Michael interacting
with the cold front. Models differ, however, in just how
productive this deformation zone is given the fact that
northwest dry advection will be taking place as the front
crosses. Believe that there will be at least scattered heavier
showers and thunderstorms along the front, with the most likely
area for widespread and persistent heavy rain across central
Virginia to southern and central Maryland. Generally 1 to 3
inches of rainfall is expected across this area, with locally
higher amounts of 6 inches possible over southern Maryland
(where the periphery of the main precipitation shield of Michael
is most likely to cross ). A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
this afternoon and tonight for these areas.
Generally up to an inch with some locally higher amounts are
expected for much of the rest of the CWA. More isolated instances of
flooding are possible outside the watch area. Further expansions are
possible depending on how near term trends evolve today.
A northwest gradient behind the cold front will combine with the
peripheral wind field of Michael resulting in gusty winds of not
purely tropical origin tonight. Winds gusts of 30 to 45 mph are
expected, with around 50 mph over the central and northern Virginia
Blue Ridge Mountains and portions of Southern Maryland, where a Wind
Advisory is in effect. Gusty winds combined with saturated soil will
bring down some trees, possibly resulting in a few power outages.
Any embedded convective elements aided by the interaction between
the periphery of Michael and the cold front could enhance gusty
winds late this afternoon and evening. The most favorable right-
front quadrant dynamics ahead of Michael should remain largely to
our south, but a brief spin up can't be completely ruled out over
the southern-most reaches of Maryland. For these reasons, SPC has
place much of the area under a Marginal Risk.
The front and Michael will depart into the western Atlantic after
midnight, with rain chances diminishing from west to east. We should
be virtually dry by daybreak Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will begin building toward the region from the
Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. Much more seasonable temperatures
akin to mid-October are expected, with highs in the upper 50s and
60s and lows in the 40s and 50s both days.
Aloft, a rather sharp mid/upper shortwave will pivot across late
Friday night. Isolated to scattered showers seem plausible with the
approaching trough late Friday night into early Saturday morning,
most likely across the Potomac Highlands. The highest elevations of
3000+ feet over the Allegheny Front could see a few wet snowflakes
mix in late Friday night as 850 mb temps drop below freezing.
With surface high pressure solidly overhead by Saturday evening, dry
and mainly clear conditions are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will move offshore Sunday while low pressure and
its associated cold front move through the Great Lakes. An
upper-level ridge will be centered over the southeastern CONUS
during this time while a an upper-level trough extends from the
northern Plains into the Rockies. A southwest flow will allow
for high and mid-level clouds to return for Sunday. An isolated
shower/sprinkle cannot be ruled out either, but much of the day
should be dry.
Low pressure will pass by well to the north Sunday night through
Monday and its associated cold front will approach Sunday night
from the west before passing through Monday. Showers are
possible ahead of the cold front during this time. The boundary
will stall out overhead or just to the south for Monday night
through Tuesday before another weak wave of low pressure rides
along the boundary. More unsettled conditions are possible
during this time. High pressure will likely return for the
middle portion of next week as the boundary drops farther south.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Seeing improving conditions at the terminals this morning as
the bulk of shower activity has moved off to our north. MVFR/VFR
CIGs will persist for many of the terminals through early
afternoon. A cold front will approach from the west later this
afternoon as Tropical Storm Michael nears but remains southeast
of the terminals. This will induce widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening,
with episodes of IFR conditions returning with any heavier
showers/storms as the cold front crosses the area and Michael
passes to our south and east.
Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the cold front this
evening, most likely beginning between 00z and 02z near KMRB and
from 02z-05z for the rest of the terminals. Gusts around 30 to
35 knots are likely late this evening and overnight. Gusty
northwest winds will continue Friday as well with 20 to 30 knots
most likely. Winds will diminish Friday night as high pressure
builds overhead. VFR conditions are expected from later this
evening through Friday.
An upper-level disturbance may trigger a few shower late Friday
night into Saturday with possible MVFR conditions. High pressure
will return for later Saturday through Saturday night.
VFR conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday night. A cold
front may trigger showers and brief MVFR conditions later Sunday
night and Monday. Southwest winds ahead of the boundary Sunday
night and Monday will shift to the north and northwest behind
the boundary late Monday or Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Intermittent SCA gusts this morning across the lower Tidal
Potomac and MD portion of the lower Bay given a stronger
gradient. As a cold front approaches the waters this evening and
Tropical Storm Michael nears to the south and east, strong
gusty winds to gale force are anticipated for all waters this
evening and persisting through Friday morning. Storm force winds
are expected for a time late this evening into the overnight
over the lower tidal Potomac and lower Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay. There will be the potential for waterspouts in
an outer rain band over these lower marine zones, but the most
favorable right-quadrant dynamics ahead of Michael should stay
mainly to the south.
In addition to strong winds tonight, waves will build to 5 to 8
feet over the open parts of the Bay, making navigating the
waters difficult and dangerous.
Winds will gradually subside Friday afternoon through Saturday,
but Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed before winds
go completely light by Saturday evening thanks to high pressure
building overhead.
A cold front will approach the waters from the west Sunday night
into Monday before passing through late Monday or Monday night.
Winds may reach SCA criteria during this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A southerly flow will continue through this afternoon, and
possibly into this evening. Elevated water levels will persist
during this time with minor flooding expected for sensitive
areas. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Washington DC,
Annapolis, and Straits Point in St Marys County through this
evening. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed for this evening
for Alexandria, Baltimore and other locations, but confidence is
too low at this time since the high tide will be occurring
around the same time a strong offshore flow is developing.
Strong northwest winds will develop late this evening and
overnight behind a cold front and also as Michael moves offshore
to our south and east. Tidal blowout conditions are possible
Friday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for DCZ001.
MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late
tonight for MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for
MDZ017-018.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017.
VA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late
tonight for VAZ036-037-050-055>057-508.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for
VAZ507-508.
WV...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534-
537-543.
Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ533-534-537-543.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ533-534-537-
543.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BKF/DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/BKF/DHOF
MARINE...BJL/BKF/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>The Sterling radar (KLWX), 137 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:32 UTC.
11 flood, 7 strong wind, 4 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Fifth street SW was closed due to flooding between Brockwood Drive and Cherry Avenue.
A large tree was blown down in the 11400 block of Catharpin Road between Catharpin Landing Road and Piney Branch Road.
Trees were blown down onto Tye River Road near Falling Rock Road.
Nearly half a dozen trees were blown down across Albemarle County.
Water was covering Monacan Trail Road at numerous intersections.
US-1 Jefferson Davis Highway was closed due to flooding near Telegraph Road.
Old Plank road was impassable due to flooding near the intersection with Gold Dale Road.
Water was flowing over Mine Road and the roadway was impassable.
Route 3 was closed due to standing water near the intersection with Pilgrim Church Road.
A car was stuck in water along West Catharpin Road near Pamunkey Road. The road was closed due to high water.
Brock Road was closed due to flooding near the intersection with Herndon Road.
Wintergreen lane was closed due to flooding near Shelton Shop Road.
Poplar Road was closed due to flooding near Mountain View Road.
Harrell Road was closed due to high water.
There were reports of flooded roads across the entire county, including near the intersection of U.S. 301 and Sunset Lane.
Several trees were blown down, including in Dogue, Passapatanzy, and Fairview Beach. A 40 knot (46 mph) gust was measured near Dahlgren.
Several trees were blown down, including across I-95 between Lorton and Fredericksburg. A 37 knot (43 mph) gust was measured at Quantico.
Several trees were blown down, including across I-95 between Lorton and Fredericksburg.
Several trees were blown down, including along US-50.
Several reports of tree damage were received. A 40 knot (46 mph) gust was measured at KDCA (Washington National Airport).
Albevanna Spring Road was closed at Pat Dennis Road due to high water.
Mallorys Ford Road was closed at Shelton Lane.
Port Conway Road was washed out at Powhatan Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 790452, 779214, 789751, 789752, 790453, 790454, 790455, 790456, 790457, 790458, 790459, 790460, 790461, 790448, 790462, 789753, 789754, 789755, 789756, 789757, 790449, 790450, 790451.