A strong upper level disturbance kicked off a round of thunderstorms Friday evening, with activity occurring mainly from the Interstate 20 corridor northward to the Red River. A few storms produced severe hail and damaging wind gusts.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A strong upper level disturbance kicked off a round of thunderstorms Friday evening, with activity occurring mainly from the Interstate 20 corridor northward to the Red River. A few storms produced severe hail and damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 5:47 PM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFs/ Concerns: Convection at the TAF sites and strong west winds on Saturday. A dryline is marching east into the region and storms are developing along and just east of the front. Strong lift associated with a strong upper level disturbance will continue to support storms along this boundary as it moves east this evening. Thunderstorms are likely to impact the Metroplex airports between 02-04Z. These storms could be severe, and a Tornado Watch is in effect. To the south, the thunder threat appears lower as the best lift will remain to the north, and have opted to only mention a VCSH in the KACT TAF between 03-05Z. However, this may need to be amended for a TS mention depending on trends the next 1-2 hours. Breezy and gusty south winds will continue until the convection passes, and then southwest winds are expected for the remainder of the night. By midday Saturday, breezy and gusty west winds of 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts will be possible for nearly the remainder of the day. This will have some impacts on area runways. Wind speeds are expected to diminish late Sunday afternoon and back to the southwest. MVFR cigs that developed at sunset this evening will become VFR as the dryline passes, and VFR cigs will prevail through the end of the valid TAF period. JLDunn && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 346 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018/ /Tonight Through Saturday Night/ We continue to analyze 3-hourly sounding analysis through early this evening, with a mid-afternoon(or 21z) sounding in the air as we speak. These frequent soundings are helping us dissect our thermodynamic profile for the area, as we already know the southwesterly deep bulk shear profiles of 45-50 knots will exist into this evening, as well as increasing large-scale ascent. Earlier, an 18z sounding indicated only a slight weakening of the elevated mixed layer(EML) or cap aloft with bulk of the moisture either contained below 850mb or above 400mb. Some slight increase of MUCAPE was evident with the steepening of mid level lapse rates aloft. This is likely the reason any warm-sector showers or isolated storms have been relegated within a deeper moist axis from far East Texas into Louisiana and the Ark-La-Tex. Around here, it's been more resistant to development to this point due to it being too dry the 700mb-850mb layer. This layer is critical for the development of deep updrafts and consequently thunderstorms. We should know more after this writing on the extent of weakening of the EML and where best storm initiation will be. At this moment, we still expect the deepest moisture to be across our far eastern counties, where 40-70% POPs will be advertised, with only slight chances across the I-35 corridor and points west. Changes in the SPC risk areas earlier are agreed upon here due to the aforementioned dry and deep EML from earlier today. Current feeling is a shortwave over the New Mexico/West Texas border will continue lifting east toward our area by 5-7 pm with the arrival of a surface trough. Our CAMs (convection activating models) have struggled mightily and now as I write this, the HRRR wants to develop a few supercellular storms further west than what was shown for several hours earlier near Montague Co and across out SW counties. Our other high-resolution models want to wait til closer to mid evening and mainly east of I-35 and with the aforementioned EML overhead in mind, I have leaned toward this solution versus the HRRR with all the storms in the western counties. It definitely bears watching. Otherwise, the strong mid-level shortwave and associated surface trough will track across the area late this evening and through the overnight hours. I have left a chances for storms between midnight and 3 am CST across the far east and southeast counties and with very strong wind shear in place and ascent, even a chance for a severe storm or two in the time window across the areas. As for severe weather modes, all modes of severe weather are possible with any discrete storms through mid evening. Convective activity should congeal more into a semi-linear, broken line of storms or QLCS with a strong LLJ driving more of a damaging winds and marginally severe hail threat. Breezy west-southwest winds and dry air will result in temperatures starting off breezy and cool in the 50s Saturday morning, before gusty west winds 15-20 mph and plentiful sunshine take over for a windy and warm day for December 1st(Saturday). With areas across the western 2/3 of the CWA missing out on the more widespread wetting rainfall, the expected gusty west winds, low afternoon humidity values in the 20s, and warm temperatures will bring an elevated fire weather danger to a good part of the area. Despite the winds, the insolation and westerly flow leads me to believe model blends are trending too cool and have gone more into the lower-mid 70s most areas outside of the immediate Red River valley where cooler 925mb-850mb temperatures will reside. It is possible a low end wind advisory may be needed for especially the northern half of the CWA on Saturday. Mid level flow should continue to deamplify into more of a zonal flow overhead, as our strong shortwave disturbance departs northeast away from the area. The strong west winds will decouple and fall to around 10 mph overnight. Still, the dry airmass in place will allow lows Sunday morning to fall into the 40s areawide. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /Issued 346 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018/ /Sunday Through Thursday/ Another mid level shortwave arrives Sunday and Sunday night and will amplify the flow aloft enough to support a cold front into the area late in this period(mostly Sunday night). This will bring the normal early December chill back to the region for the first half of next week and have leaned toward colder European and NAM temperatures for this time frame. Highs Monday and Tuesday will likely struggle to get out of the 40s with the expected strong low level cold advection and increasing cloud cover associated with this second shortwave disturbance. A few models are indicating enough frontogenesis within the mid levels from the Red River Valley into Oklahoma that some very light precipitation could develop. Unfortunately, much of this would struggle to reach the surface with much of the atmosphere below 700mb expected to be pretty dry. In addition, temperatures(even lows Monday morning) will remain above freezing, thus no wintry precipitation is expected. Freezing temperatures with continued brisk north breezes continue for Tuesday morning, however by this time all the frontogenetical and isentropic forcing will have exited the area well beforehand. Otherwise, a slow-warming trend occurs after a chilly start Wednesday and continues through the end of the week, as the cold and broad surface ridge slowly shifts east of the area with southerly low level flow and surface winds returning to the area. A strong mid level low or trough will organizes just off the Southern California coastline during this time with increasing low level warm advection and periodic disturbances arriving within the confluent, faster flow aloft over North and Central Texas. I have left a persistent forecast with increasing chances for a cold rain or showers, as highs struggle into the 50s and remain just under seasonal normals for first week of December. At this time, we do not expect any wintry precipitation for the end of the week. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 75 47 66 41 / 30 0 0 0 5 Waco 53 75 47 72 44 / 30 0 0 0 0 Paris 54 70 45 63 39 / 70 0 0 0 10 Denton 52 73 44 64 38 / 30 0 0 0 5 McKinney 53 72 44 64 39 / 40 0 0 0 5 Dallas 56 74 48 67 43 / 30 0 0 0 5 Terrell 53 74 46 67 41 / 40 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 54 74 47 69 43 / 40 0 0 5 0 Temple 53 75 47 72 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 51 73 43 66 37 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 82
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 521 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011145- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 521 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a threat for severe thunderstorms mainly northeast of a line from Jacksboro to Granbury to Waco to Hearne. Hazards include damaging winds, large hail, as well as isolated tornadoes. The risk for tornadoes will be highest to the north and east of the DFW Metroplex where wind shear and instability are greatest. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. An elevated fire weather threat is expected on Saturday generally west of the I-35 corridor. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening across parts of north and central Texas.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018
TXZ091-101-102-010030-
Montague TX-Wise TX-Jack TX-
539 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 539 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Jacksboro, moving northeast at 50 mph.
Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bridgeport, Jacksboro, Alvord, Chico, Bryson, Sunset, Runaway Bay and
Lake Bridgeport.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for north
central Texas.
LAT...LON 3343 9743 3300 9810 3301 9843 3323 9842
3347 9809
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 234DEG 45KT 3312 9814
HernandezSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018
TXZ100-115-116-010100-
Palo Pinto TX-Stephens TX-Young TX-
608 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 608 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Crystal Falls to near
Breckenridge. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.
Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Graham, Breckenridge, Crystal Falls and Possum Kingdom State Park.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for north
central Texas.
LAT...LON 3301 9894 3338 9842 3301 9842 3300 9840
3293 9842 3259 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 230DEG 50KT 3298 9887 3272 9897
HernandezThe Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:09 UTC.
9 hail, 6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported that a dead tree was blown onto a parked car in the city of Breckenridge, TX.
Fire and rescue reported quarter-sized hail in the city of Runaway Bay, TX.
A trained spotter reported nickel-sized hail approximately one mile north of the city of Argyle, TX.
A trained spotter reported nickel-sized hail in the city of Pilot Point, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter sized hail in the city of Crossroads, TX.
A trained spotter reported half-dollar sized hail in the city of Prosper, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter sized hail approximately 4 miles south of the city of Van Alstyne, TX.
A social media report indicated nickel sized hail in the city of Midlothian, TX.
Amateur radio reported half-dollar sized hail near the intersection of Route 69 and FM 513, approximately 13 miles northeast of the city of Quinlan, TX.
Amateur radio reported a 60 MPH wind gust approximately 3 miles south of the city of Quinlan, TX.
A trained spotter reported a 60 MPH wind gust near the intersection of FM 751 and FM 276 east of the city of Quinlan, TX.
Hopkins County Sheriff's Department reported a 60 MPH wind gust in the city of Miller Grove, or approximately 7 miles south-southeast of the city of Cumby, TX.
A 62 MPH wind gust was measured at the Terrell, TX Automated Surface Observation System.
A 62 MPH wind gust was reported near the intersection of Interstate 20 and Highway 557 in the city of Terrell, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter sized hail on the south side of the city of Sulphur Springs, TX.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 793419, 793401, 793429, 793430, 793402, 793403, 793404, 793431, 793405, 793420, 793421, 793422, 793424, 793428, 793406.