An Arctic front dropped temperatures into the upper 20s and lower 30s, followed by overrunning precipitation, leading to significant amounts of freezing rain across the northwestern third of the forecast area.
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The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
An Arctic front dropped temperatures into the upper 20s and lower 30s, followed by overrunning precipitation, leading to significant amounts of freezing rain across the northwestern third of the forecast area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 7:54 AM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 754 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... ...Upgrade to an Ice Storm Warning north and west of a Cisco to Bowie line today... The overnight/early-morning round of showers and embedded thunderstorms is just now beginning to lift north and east of the region as the associated jetstreak is moving into Oklahoma. This initial wave has generally resulting in minor ice accumulations on elevated surfaces across our northwest where it's coldest, but overall impacts on roadways have been minimal for the most part thus far. However, the next vort max which earlier moved off the high terrain of Mexico has resulted in the development of new precipitation which is spreading across the Concho Valley/Rolling Plains. Forecast soundings reveal gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with the dynamic cooling from the approaching disturbance with MUCAPE values forecast to increase to around 500-800 J/kg through the morning hours. As a result, this next round of precipitation is expected to be more convective in nature as evidenced by the increased lightning and cooling cloud tops out west. With all of this in mind, we have elected to issue an Ice Storm Warning for our far northwestern counties (Eastland, Stephens, Palo Pinto, Young, Jack, and Montague) after collaboration with WFO San Angelo with indications of impacts quickly ramping up in the Concho Valley due to this convective freezing rain and sleet mix. This warning has been relegated to the counties where the coldest air is forecast to be in place (under 28 degrees) through the morning and afternoon hours. For simplicity, we will let the Ice Storm Warning ride through midnight tonight to avoid having to overlap an additional winter weather advisory, although the most significant icing potential should be over by the mid-evening hours. Carlaw && .AVIATION... /Issued 610 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ IFR conditions are expected to prevail today and and ceilings may fall into the LIFR category tonight. A large band of rain will be moving across the region through 16z. As another upper level disturbance approaches this afternoon, another round of rain, possibly with some isolated thunderstorms, is expected afternoon. Temperatures are key to this forecast as KAFW has already fallen to 32F. KFTW may fall to 31F this morning and KDFW, KDAL and KGKY are expected to bottom out just above freezing. Needless to say, we will continue to monitor temperature trends and make adjustments to the precipitation type if needed. Temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 30s this afternoon and tonight but may fall below 32F at KAFW and KFTW 09-11z Thursday. At Waco, overall similar trends are expected but temperatures will easily remain above freezing through 12z Thursday. 58 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 354 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ /Today and Tonight/ The combination of increasing upper-level diffluence in association with the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak and yet another shortwave moving out of Coahuila, Mexico is resulting in the development of our next wave of precipitation. Recent hi-res guidance seems to be catching onto most of this activity pretty well, which lends confidence to PoPs in the short-term which will be near 90-100 percent for much of the region. Temperatures are obviously one of the more important aspects of the short-term forecast. As of 3 AM, the freeze line extended from near a Bonham to Decatur to Mineral Wells to Comanche line. Any precipitation north and west of here is falling as a mixture of rain and freezing rain. A combination of the colder NAM guidance and the GFS LAMP data actually seemed to be doing a respectable job with regards to temperatures, and this guidance was generally used to depict temperatures today and tonight. With lingering gusty north winds in the wake of yesterday's front and temperatures north of the Red River hanging out in the mid and upper 20s, cold advection will persist through the morning and into the afternoon hours across the region allowing temperatures to slowly fall across the western 2/3rds of the area. This current batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms will persist into the mid-morning hours before gradually peeling away to the east. Up along the Red River, we elected to add Fannin county to the winter weather advisory for this morning activity with temperatures falling to around 30. Locales from near Bonham to McKinney to Dallas and points eastward should actually slowly warm during the afternoon, however, as surface winds become more easterly. Our far north and western counties continue to be where our highest concern is for icing issues, as this is where the combination of the coldest temperatures (falling into the upper 20s) and an additional wave of possibly convective precipitation develops during the late-morning and early-afternoon. Here, roughly west of a Cisco to Gainesville line, some ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch can be anticipated, creating for treacherous travel today. The immediate Metroplex posed the next conundrum. While it seems likely that outlying spots across parts of Tarrant County will fall to below freezing this morning (the Alliance and Azle areas, for example), guidance supports mainly 31-32 degree readings here, which should help curtail any significant icing issues. Regardless, some elevated roadways may become slick, and a glazing on trees is possible here. Basically, the message here is that while freezing rain is technically occurring at 32 degrees, it typically takes several hours at 29-30 or so to start causing substantial issues. Either way, take it slow this morning where temperatures have fallen to 31-32. It's looking like the most widespread/heaviest precipitation will clear the region by early this evening, but we may have to contend with very light showers/drizzle as the low-level remain quite moist. For this reason, the winter weather advisory was extended through midnight tonight to account for any lingering issues. Otherwise, locally heavy rainfall will persist today, and with yesterday's soaking rainfall, it won't take a lot of additional precipitation to cause some runoff issues. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 354 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ /Thursday through Tuesday/ After a brief respite overnight Wednesday night, another shortwave is expected to approach Thursday. With temperatures expected to be 28 to 32 degrees around daybreak Thursday along and northwest of a Goldthwaite to Glen Rose to Sherman line, have included a mention of freezing rain or rain/freezing rain in those areas. Temperatures should rise above freezing by midday and have just gone with a chance of showers area wide with isolated thunderstorms from Lampasas to Gainesville line. Highs Thursday will range from the upper 30s northwest to near 50 southeast. An unsettled weather pattern will continue into Saturday with good chances of showers and thunderstorms. Fortunately, as a surface ridge moves east, winds will come around to the east and southeast Friday and to the south Friday night. This will result in a warm-up. Temperatures Thursday night will be nearly steady in the mid 30s northwest to around 50 southeast. A warm front will lift northward during the day Friday. Highs will range from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. As a shortwave moves out of the Rockies Saturday, a cold front will sweep through the region, bringing drier air and a temporary end to the rain by Saturday night. Dry weather is then expected through Monday. An approaching shortwave will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the region again overnight Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal Sunday through Tuesday. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 35 33 40 40 61 / 100 40 70 70 80 Waco 38 34 43 43 66 / 100 40 70 70 70 Paris 44 38 50 48 64 / 100 60 80 90 80 Denton 33 32 39 39 57 / 90 40 60 70 80 McKinney 35 33 43 41 61 / 100 50 70 70 80 Dallas 35 34 42 42 63 / 100 40 70 70 80 Terrell 42 35 47 46 66 / 100 60 80 80 80 Corsicana 42 35 46 46 67 / 100 60 80 80 70 Temple 40 34 44 44 67 / 100 40 70 70 60 Mineral Wells 31 31 39 39 56 / 80 30 50 60 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ092>095-102>107-116>123- 130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ092>094-102-103-117-130>132-141. Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for TXZ091-100-101- 115-116-129. && 90/58
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 300 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 300 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through midnight tonight along and northwest of a Comanche to Glen Rose to Denton to Bonham line. Areas in the advisory could receive ice accumulations up to a two-tenths of an inch, which will cause hazardous driving conditions. There is a chance of thunderstorms across all of North and Central Texas through tonight. Cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding will be the main threats. A Flood Watch is in effect along and east of a Killeen to Mineral Wells to Gainesville line through midnight tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Light freezing rain is possible Thursday morning along and northwest of a line from Goldthwaite to Glen Rose to Sherman. Additional ice accumulations of a trace to two-tenths of an inch are possible. Thunderstorm chances will return Thursday afternoon and continue through Saturday. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but additional heavy rainfall could cause additional instances of flooding. Scattered thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time but reports of flooding and freezing rain are appreciated. 58
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter weather, 3 ice storm, 1 sleet. Local standard time, as filed.
A social media report indicated half an inch of sleet on Highway 380 at Highway 281.
Emergency management reported one inch of ice on elevated surfaces in the city of Bowie, TX.
Power outages from ice were reported across parts of Parker, Wise and Tarrant Counties.
Erath County Sheriff's Department reported that tree branches and power lines were down across northern parts of the county.
Emergency management reported several areas of icy trees and power lines, with numerous power disruptions due to ice.
Texas Department of Transportation reported ice covering bridges and overpasses in and near the city of Weatherford, TX.
Texas Department of Transportation reported that FM 2210 in southeastern Jack County was closed due to downed power lines from ice accumulations.
Texas Department of Transportation reported freezing rain in the city of Bowie, TX.
A trained spotter reported five-hundredths of an inch of freezing rain in the city of Dublin, TX.
A public report indicated a hundredth of an inch of freezing rain approximately 4 miles north of the city of Cisco, TX.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 740328, 740340, 740332, 740336, 741213, 741216, 741421, 741422, 740342, 740346.