Flooding in Kentucky, February 21 to 28, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Temperatures continue to linger right at the freezing mark north
and west of a line from Mt Vernon to Carbondale Illinois, and
onto to Jackson and Van Buren Missouri. Very light glazing on
trees has recently been reported in Pinckneyville. This area is
right on the edge of the persistent light rain, and temperatures
are not expected to change much at all this afternoon, so some
light icing of elevated objects may continue. Given the warm
temperatures the last few days, road surfaces are not expected to
freeze up this afternoon. Will keep the Special Weather Statement
going through the afternoon.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Cold front at 09z is through all but the KHOP area. Initial batch of
rain produced 1 to 2 inches over the past 12 hours across SEMO,
into southern IL. Rainfall rates in this area have been kept in
check, and are lowering, not to mention antecedent conditions were
such that, well, the rain was welcome. No issues so far tonight
anywhere, other than maybe some puddling on roads. Expect similar
to slightly lower amounts into SW Indiana and west KY for the rest
of the night. RAP and NAMNest data have handled the winds and
temperature trends the best, and will continue with those
forecasts through today. Today, temps do get close to 32F from say
Marble Hill northeast to Pinckneyville. So some patchy icing,
mainly elevated cannot be ruled out completely in this corridor.
Not sure that it will be all that impactful. Will monitor.

Extended the Flood Watch through 12z Sunday. Higher confidence for
appreciable areal flooding will be from later Thursday on through
Saturday night which has been messaged for a few days. The long term
discussion will have more on the Friday through Saturday period.
Much lower confidence on the front end through tonight, in
particular for SEMO, southern IL and southwest IN, given lowering
rates, and an axis shift to west KY. Isolated low impact issues
cannot be ruled out I suppose. Will keep a close eye on west KY
through 12z Thursday. Expect a bit of a lull on Thursday before
another surge Thursday night as the boundary pushes back into the
area along with another mid level wave moving across the region.
Select river flood warnings have already been out for several days.
The extended watch expands upon that, once the rainfall really
tallies up.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

The primary concern in the long term continues to be the potential
for heavy rainfall and flooding Friday into Saturday night. While
finer details such as precipitation amounts and the axis of heaviest
rain still require some fine tuning, overall forecast confidence is
higher than average given generally good agreement among forecast
models.

An anomalously moist southwest flow pattern will persist into the
first half of the long term period. Perturbations in the strong
southwest flow aloft will provide the necessary lift to generate no
fewer than three precipitation events during the period. The first
round of rain is expected to carry over from Thursday night into
Friday as energy ripples along a stalled out frontal boundary draped
southwest to northeast across the area. The second round of rain
arrives Friday night into early Saturday as a warm front lifts north
across the area. The third and final round of activity accompanies
the approach and passage of a cold front late Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night.

Some of the rain that falls could be quite heavy with precipitable
water values forecast to be 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal.
The collaborated forecast has 2 to 4 inches of rain over much of the
area from Friday through Saturday night. That's in addition to what
falls prior to Friday. Thunder will also be possible through much of
the period, which will serve to focus even heavier rainfall amounts
in some basins--leading to the potential for flash flooding.

The potential for severe weather will also need to be monitored--
mainly Saturday afternoon into Saturday night--as a deepening
surface low shifts northeast from the Plains into the Quad Cities
area by 00Z Sunday. Atmospheric dynamics including deep layer shear
appear favorable for thunderstorm organization. However, the quality
of surface-based instability will be the greatest variable given the
amount of sky cover and rain forecast. The 21/00Z GFS suggests that
instability will not be a problem, but it is something that we will
monitor as the period comes into the window of near term CAM model
guidance.

The precipitation should taper off abruptly from west to east
Saturday night as the cold front sweeps through. In its wake, dry
and slightly cooler conditions are forecast to start the new week as
high pressure builds in. After unseasonably warm conditions Friday
and Saturday, a return to temperatures still slightly above normal
is forecast Sunday through Tuesday. In fact, even low temperatures
may remain above freezing behind the front early next week.
Generally used a blend of available guidance for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Fairly high confidence forecast with IFR conditions and northeast
winds the general rule through the period. Light rains will
linger through the afternoon and then another round moderate to
heavy rainfall will move through the region in the 03Z-09Z time-
frame. MVFR visibilities are expected with the heavier rains, and
then fog will keep them going into Thursday morning. LIFR ceilings
will be a possibility at this time as well. Northeast winds may
gust at or below 20kts for awhile over west Kentucky during the
heavier rains late this evening into the early morning hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
338 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
338 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain will continue off and on today through tonight. The highest
rainfall totals today through tonight will be across west
Kentucky. Will monitor this area for isolated standing water
issues.

Temperatures will drop to near 32 degrees today from around Marble
Hill Missouri to Pinckneyville Illinois. This may result in some
light freezing rain mainly on elevated surfaces. Confidence is low
with respect to potential impacts on road surfaces. We will
monitor conditions through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of
heavy rain to the entire region Thursday night through Saturday
night. The flooding concern will increase with each round of heavy
rainfall, culminating with the cold frontal passage Saturday night.
Please refer to the Flood Watch for more details.

The potential for strong thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night will also need to be monitored closely. The greatest
limiting factor may be the availability of surface based instability
with the amount of cloud cover and rain forecast.

Continue to monitor the latest river flood warnings for impact
messaging and forecast stage information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

We request spotters report rainfall totals along with any
observed area flooding over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1020 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE BUSH              37.83N 89.10W
02/21/2018  M1.62 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1026 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W CARBONDALE          37.72N 89.25W
02/21/2018  M1.59 INCH       JACKSON            IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S HERRIN              37.76N 89.03W
02/21/2018  M1.57 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE BELLE RIVE        38.25N 88.73W
02/21/2018  M1.52 INCH       JEFFERSON          IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST FRANKFORT          37.90N 88.93W
02/21/2018  M1.60 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1035 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S BLOOMFIELD          36.86N 89.93W
02/21/2018  M1.58 INCH       STODDARD           MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N CAPE GIRARDEAU      37.34N 89.55W
02/21/2018  M1.73 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W DEXTER              36.79N 90.00W
02/21/2018  M1.84 INCH       STODDARD           MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MARBLE HILL             37.30N 89.98W
02/21/2018  M1.85 INCH       BOLLINGER          MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE CAPE GIRARDEAU     37.30N 89.54W
02/21/2018  M1.87 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW JACKSON            37.37N 89.67W
02/21/2018  M2.07 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SSW CAPE GIRARDEAU      37.31N 89.55W
02/21/2018  M2.23 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE PERRYVILLE         37.74N 89.86W
02/21/2018  M2.33 INCH       PERRY              MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AROUND 7 A.M. LOCAL TIME.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1058 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     FLOOD            MURPHYSBORO             37.77N 89.34W
02/21/2018                   JACKSON            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HARRY RAY DRIVE AT MURPHYSBORO HIGH SCHOOL IS CLOSED DUE
            TO A WASHED OUT CULVERT. RELAYED VIA FACEBOOK AND A
            FOLLOW UP PHONE CALL WITH EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1111 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     FREEZING RAIN    PINCKNEYVILLE           38.08N 89.38W
02/21/2018  U0.00 INCH       PERRY              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE ON TREES. RELAYED
            VIA NWSCHAT.

&&

DWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1154 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ILZ075-080-084-MOZ076-086-087-100-107-212300-
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-JACKSON-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
WAYNE MO-CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, PINCKNEYVILLE, CARBONDALE,
MURPHYSBORO, PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON,
PIEDMONT, AND VAN BUREN
1154 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Light Freezing Rain to Continue This Afternoon...

Temperatures will hover near the 32 degree mark through the
afternoon, and as light rains continue off and on, some freezing
rain can be expected from Pinckneyville and Murphysboro Illinois
to Perryville, Marble Hill, Piedmont, Greenville and Van Buren
Missouri. Light glazing is expected on elevated surfaces such as
trees, fences and vehicles, and the potential exists for a few
slick spots to develop on bridges and overpasses. Motorists should
exercise caution when driving over any elevated road surfaces
this afternoon. Most road surfaces as well as parking lots and
sidewalks should not become slick this afternoon. Temperatures are
expected to slowly warm up this evening, bringing an end to the
freezing rain.

DRS