Above normal temperatures and little to no rainfall continued to maintain high evaporation rates as the pattern of La Canicula, an upper level ridge that suppresses precipitation while keeping or building hot temperatures, dominated the first half of August, followed by a broader ridge that covered much of the Gulf of Mexico and stretched back to Texas for the second half of the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Above normal temperatures and little to no rainfall continued to maintain high evaporation rates as the pattern of La Canicula, an upper level ridge that suppresses precipitation while keeping or building hot temperatures, dominated the first half of August, followed by a broader ridge that covered much of the Gulf of Mexico and stretched back to Texas for the second half of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 11:55 PM CST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1255 AM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Satellite and radar images indicate a weak convective boundary draped across the CWA late tonight with mid to high level clouds across portions of the area associated with the debris clouds from the thunderstorm across northeast Mexico. Ceilings were near 3700ft at KPIL to near 5000ft at KMFE. The 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and the 500mb trough across the east-central United States will bring drier air with increasing subsidence across south Texas Wednesday. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley through the rest of tonight into Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...A weak front is bisecting the NW portion of Deep South Texas and is expected to remain just north of the Rio Grande Valley before dissipating or moving back north as a warm front later Wednesday. Isolated convection is firing either side of the front but the showers and storms are not showing any signs of sustainability which results in a low confidence in adding convection the 00Z TAF package. Flight conditions to remain VFR tonight with circumnavigable isolated convection expected mainly north and west of the TAF sites this evening and into the early nighttime hours. Models do suggest a few showers around sunrise Wednesday but these too are likely to be isolated and will not be mentioned in the latest TAFs. Light southeast winds in advance of the front become light and variable to light northwest overnight as surface high pressure builds across the weakening frontal boundary. The ridge pushes east later Wednesday with winds veering northeast to east and remaining light. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Surface obs indicate that the weak cold front up north has edged down into the NW corner of Deep South TX. Southeast of this boundary, the afternoon sea breeze has started pushing steadily west from the lower TX coastline. As the sea breeze pushes west and merges up with the old frontal boundary, this should provide enough surface convergence in order to start firing off some afternoon and early evening conv over mainly the eastern and and central sections of the area. So will maintain the conv chcs across the region throughout the evening hours. Withe the loss of the daytime heating expect the conv to die off later this evening and tonight. Drier and more stable air will then move into the region from the north on Wed and Wed Night shutting down the conv potential. So will maintain silent 5-10 % pops for these periods. As the atms dries out and stabilizes, plenty of sunshine tomorrow will likely warm up temps to near or above short term max temp guidance for Wed. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): The long term begins with continued troughing across the eastern United States. This doesn't last long because by Friday and especially into the weekend the trough aloft will begin to degrade as higher pressure begins to build in from both the west and the east. Upper level winds will begin to transition from a northerly/easterly flow to a more easterly/southeasterly flow later in the weekend. At the same time, an inverted trough begins to develop over the region. This trough will be the focus for at least some sea breeze convection beginning Friday and especially this weekend. Through the long term period, given the upper level pattern (more favorable for sea breeze activity) can't rule out at least an isolated shower or two each day. However, the greatest potential for rainfall will be Friday through Monday as deeper moisture moves into the region. Toward the end of the cycle, the trough across the east should become re-established. Once again the region will be between ridging across the west and troughing in the east. Continued hot conditions with a slight chance of diurnally driven showers and storms will result. MARINE: (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...A light and variable surface wind regime will likely limit any significant wave growth throughout the short term period. Fairly benign bay and Gulf conditions expected through Wed Night. No SCAs expected. (Thursday through Tuesday): Tranquil marine conditions can be expected to start this cycle. Eventually, surface high pressure will become re-established across the Gulf. This will allow for a easterly/southeasterly fetch to take shape across the Gulf waters. This may be just enough to bump wave heights from 1 to 2 feet up to 4 maybe 5 feet as pressure gradient tightens later this weekend and early next weekend. Toward the end of the cycle, pressure gradient begins to relax once again, which should bring wave heights back down to 2 or 3 feet offshore. Convection may be off and on as an inverted trough develops this weekend. Localized agitated seas can't be ruled out in the stronger storms that develop. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 61/64
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 436 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 TXZ248>257-351-353-012145- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 436 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A few thunderstorms this evening may produce occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds and brief heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected beginning Saturday afternoon mainly east of Highway 281/69C, and Sunday through Monday in all areas. Primary threats will be occasional cloud to ground lightning and brief downpours that may cause nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-012145- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 436 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Gulf waters as well as the Laguna Madre Friday over the weekend and Monday. Primary hazards will include occasional cloud to water lightning and brief downpours reduced visibility and gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
904 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018
TXZ250-251-351-010245-
Brooks TX-Coastal Kenedy TX-Inland Kenedy TX-
904 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018
...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...
At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ricardo, or 8 miles south of Kingsville, moving south at 25 mph.
Outflow ahead of this thunderstorm will produce gusty winds across
portions of Brooks and Kenedy counties.
Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Falfurrias, Sarita, Kenedy County Wind Farms, La Colonia Park,
Airport Road Addition, Falfurrias Junior High School, Pleasant Park,
Kenedy County Sheriffs Office, Falfurrias Fire Station and Cantu
Addition.
LAT...LON 2726 9773 2728 9765 2724 9763 2723 9751
2709 9747 2711 9748 2705 9749 2705 9750
2702 9746 2701 9746 2703 9748 2702 9794
2701 9841 2726 9834 2726 9799 2721 9797
2724 9792 2725 9782 2728 9779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 353DEG 20KT 2739 9791
63The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought maintained its grip on northern Zapata County through the 14th, and expanded slightly into central Zapata County through the 20th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 783350.