A small complex of showers and strong thunderstorms moved across southwest Middle Tennessee during the early morning hours on July 16. One report of wind damage was received.
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The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A small complex of showers and strong thunderstorms moved across southwest Middle Tennessee during the early morning hours on July 16. One report of wind damage was received.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 5:16 AM CST, 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 616 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Absolutely quiet across Middle TN at forecast time, but I have a feeling that as quiet as it is, we're bubbling under the surface and on the verge of storms starting to fire up. I've been trying to find something to key in on, and while GOES-16 water vapor is pretty muddled, SPCs mesoanalysis page is showing a moisture convergence axis running from northern MS into out western Middle TN counties. While no guarantee, any little perturbation in the northwest flow aloft would be enough to work with this moisture convergence and spark some thunderstorms. Without any other real synoptic feature, it's going to be difficult to say whether or not any storms that develop will continue into the later morning hours, but in this environment, they'd be likely to feed off one another, so I'm going to carry a 50-60 PoP in the morning hours and then begin to taper things off towards this evening. The northwest flow aloft is going to continue to present a forecast challenge into Monday night and Tuesday. Without great confidence in either direction, I have to maintain the chance PoP into Tuesday before ending PoPs Tuesday night. Until the chance exits the area though, any storms that develop will run the risk of locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Yes, I said ending PoPs. If for only a couple of days, models continue to filter dry air into Middle TN Wednesday and Thursday under a northerly boundary layer flow. Dew points should fall off into the 60s and I really think we're going to experience unseasonably cool morning lows Wednesday and Thursday morning. Nothing record breaking by any means, but at least a respite from the 70+ degree morning lows. By Thursday night, however, things start to get cranked up again and there are a couple features that have one of my eyebrows raised. First, moisture starts working its way back into Middle TN. Southerly return flow should have dew points back into the 70s by Friday morning. The more interesting feature is the unseasonable closed low that digs out of the Midwest and ramps up our shear values Friday afternoon and evening. 40-50 kts of deep layer shear and plenty of helicity is nothing to sneeze at in the middle of summer. We will need to watch the evolution of this system closely throughout the week. If these parameters hold together, at least some severe weather will be possible Friday ahead of yes, a cold front, Friday evening. Lingering showers and storms will be possible on Saturday if this solution pans out, with a dry Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Middle Tennessee finds itself on the cusp of a slow frontal passage during the next 24 hours or so. In addition, a weak shortwave coming down the northwest flow aloft will keep at least scattered showers and storms in the forecast today. A cluster of storms is moving very slowly into the southwest corner of Middle Tennessee as of this writing, but the HRRR shows these cells weakening considerably after crossing the Tennessee River, so they are not expected to affect any of our terminals. The best chance for convection will be during peak heating, so am including VCTS remarks in the TAF's for the afternoon. It is possible that radiation fog will develop in some areas after 06Z. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && DISCUSSION......Unger AVIATION........08
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-171015- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson- Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford- Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Strong storms will be possible for all of Middle TN, especially during the afternoon and evening. The main concern will be strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Strong storms will be possible again Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening. The main concern will be strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely not be needed.
The Nashville radar (KOHX), 128 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:09 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree fell on a fence and several branches were blown down along the Natchez Trace Parkway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 777235.