NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:43 AM PST, 5 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 1:43 AM PST, 5 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
243 AM PDT Mon Jul 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Heat lingers into this evening east of the Coast Range,
while the coast remains much cooler. Inland areas will be hot again
Monday, but slightly cooler than today. More significant cooling is
expected Tuesday and Wednesday as the marine layer deepens and
onshore flow strengthens.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...After a very hot day
yesterday, it is another very warm night. Many Willamette Valley
sites were still in the upper 60s to low 70s as of 2 AM. Portland saw
a record warm minimum temp last night, and temps tonight are
following a similar track.
Given a similarly warm start today, and an airmass that remains close
to as warm as yesterday, it looks to be another very warm day. Expect
highs over the interior lowlands to be a tad cooler, but still within
3 to 5 degrees of yesterday with highs into the mid 90s. The upper
level low that brought considerable convection to southern Oregon
yesterday will be moving onshore today. This will result in
increasing onshore flow through the day. However, the marine layer is
still too shallow for this onshore flow to help provide much cooling
away from the coast. However, it still looks like the southern
Willamette Valley may see a hint of the marine influence, as the fcst
models continue to show some SW flow sneaking in today. Otherwise,
the main change today is the increased stratus coverage at the coast
this morning. Expect the coastal clouds to persist into early this
afternoon.
After the upper low pushes east of the Cascades today, the pattern
will become rather non-descript for the next couple of days. A strong
ridge will remain over the southwest U.S., which a cooler trough will
gradually drop south from the Gulf of Alaska down the B.C. coast. The
influence from the trough will become more pronounced each day,
starting on Tue. This will mean gradually increasing onshore flow and
a deepening of the marine layer, with progressively cooler temps.
Highs Tue should remain up around 90 for the lowlands. But by Wed, we
should see highs closer to average in the low 80s. The marine layer
may be deep enough by Wed morning for some marine stratus clouds to
push into the interior lowlands. Pyle
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trough
will move slowly down the B.C. coast through the second half of the
week. This will bring moderate onshore flow to the Pac NW. Expect
highs generally right around normal on Thu and Fri. Marine stratus
should form along the coast each night, then push into portions of
the interior lowlands Thu and Fri morning. As the upper trough pushes
inland over the weekend, the strong upper level ridge over the
southwestern U.S. looks to gradually rebuild toward the Pac NW again.
This should result in another warming trend and decreasing starting
Sat and continuing into early next week. Pyle
&&
.AVIATION...Upper low over southeastern Oregon will maintain weak
southerly flow over the region this am, with variable high
clouds. But, will see increasing southwesterly flow later today
and tonight. Still, stays VFR across the region with just
scattered high clouds at times. But, will maintain weak onshore
flow along the coast, with stratus persisting along the coast
into late morning or early afternoon, then reforming again this
evening. Still, this low level onshore flow remains too weak to
push clouds past the coast mtns today or tonight.
PDX AND APPROACHES...High pres remains over the region, with VFR
today and tonight. Rockey
&&
.MARINE...Not much change. High pres sitting over the coastal and
offshore waters, while thermal low pres hugs northwest Calif.
This will maintain moderate pres gradients, with gusty winds over
the outer waters today into the early evening. Seas on the outer
waters, or 20 to 60 miles offshore, are still somewhat choppy and
steep at times, running 6 to 7 ft, and with with periods of 7 to
8 sec. Seas and winds will ease back later this evening. Closer
to shore, seas and winds much more benign closer to shore.
Gradients relax a bit more for Tue, with less wind. But, overall
pattern remains in place, with the high offshore strengthening
later in the week. This will bring back gusty northerly winds on
the waters, with gusts 25 to 30 kt in afternoons/evenings from
Thu through next weekend. These gusty winds will make for some
choppy and potentially steep seas of 6 to 9 ft at times. Rockey
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central Columbia
River Gorge-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland
Metro Area-Western Columbia River Gorge.
WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central Columbia
River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-Western Columbia River
Gorge.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds today and this evening on
the outer coastal waters, or Cape Shoalwater to Florence
from 10 to 60 nm offshore.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon today
on the outer coastal waters, or Cape Shoalwater to Florence
from 10 to 60 nm offshore.
&&
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is
commonly referred to as the CWA or forecast area.