Heavy rain that fell across Middle Tennessee from December 27 into the early morning hours on December 28 caused minor flooding across eastern Middle Tennessee.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Heavy rain that fell across Middle Tennessee from December 27 into the early morning hours on December 28 caused minor flooding across eastern Middle Tennessee.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 5:29 AM CST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 529 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Another slug of moisture has lifted northward into the southeastern half of the CWA over the past few hours. One to two inches of rain have fallen over the southern counties and along the plateau according to MRMS with an additional half an inch to one inch possible on the Cumberland Plateau. I don't expect any major flooding concerns and the flash flood watch will be allowed to expire at 12z. Winds and gusts over the last 6 hours have decreased including in the area where the wind advisory remained. Given the trend, the wind advisory was cancelled early. The main cold front is still just west of the Mississippi River with a weaker front just east of the Tennessee River. High res models show the heaviest rain moving east of the plateau by 15z with some lingering light showers or drizzle east of I-65 until around lunch time. Temperatures will top out around lunch time before slowly falling in the afternoon behind the front. This is not a major shot of cold air, but will instead take us back down to about normal for this time of year. Saturday will be dry as high pressure over the plains tries to exert influence over the area. Models have not been very consistent with the rain chances on Sunday with the latest suite of models trending drier. A warm front will try to lift northward on Sunday but how fast that will occur is still uncertain. The GFS and the NAM keep most of the area dry through the daylight hours on Sunday with the Euro bringing a chance of some light showers to the whole area. I trended pops down from the previous forecast, but if this trend continues, pops may need to be trimmed further back with the next forecast package. Better rain chances will be around Sunday night through Monday night as an upper level system ejects out of the southwest U.S. There will be some elevated instability on Monday so a couple of storms cannot be ruled out. Rain totals from this system will be in the one to two inch range. Will the rain be gone in time for New Year's Eve celebrations? The answer at this point is maybe. Chances for a dry champagne toast look decent along and west of I-65 but there could be some lingering showers along the plateau at midnight. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as colder air filters in from the northwest. Another upper level trough will eject out of the southwest on Wednesday and slide our direction. The Euro and GFS have some differences with this system. The GFS phases this trough with a shortwave dipping out of Saskatchewan and allows them to develop an upper low just south of our area. The Euro keeps the two separate and the system swings through quicker. Both models show a surface low developing near the gulf coast of Louisiana Wednesday night with moisture working northward into our area. Temperatures could be cold enough to support some light snow showers. This suite of models is the first to show this solution so a slight chance of rain/snow showers was introduced Wednesday night at this point. This system will be worth watching over the next few days. .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. SHRA and MVFR cigs will spread back across airports overnight before improvement to VFR by late Friday morning at all terminals except CSV. South winds early in the TAF period will veer to southwest and eventually west during the day on Friday. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...An area of mainly light showers continues to move across the Cumberland Plateau, with mainly MVFR ceilings still spread across Middle Tennessee. A cold front is currently inching its way through the mid state, and this will push the showers east of the area during the next few hours. Clouds will scatter out from west to east later this morning and afternoon, with winds diminishing after sunset. Look for VFR conditions overnight. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning for Bedford- Cannon-Coffee-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Marshall- Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Van Buren-Warren-White. && DISCUSSION......Reagan AVIATION........08
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 600 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-291200- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson- Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford- Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 600 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Grundy County Emergency Management reported Clouse Hill Road in Pelham was flooded.
Social media reports indicated parts of Skinner Flat Road were flooded.
Social media reports indicated high water covered a part of River Hill Road.
Social media reports indicated Rutledge Ford Road was closed at the Franklin County line due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 798650, 798651, 798653, 798654.