Widespread moderate to heavy rain developed across western North Carolina on the 27th in advance of a strong cold front. The rain persisted through much of the 28th before tapering off late in the day.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Widespread moderate to heavy rain developed across western North Carolina on the 27th in advance of a strong cold front. The rain persisted through much of the 28th before tapering off late in the day. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches occurred across the mountains, with locally higher amounts in excess of 7 inches. This resulted in flooding of the French Broad River and some of its larger tributaries, as well as on a few other streams.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 27, 9:59 PM EST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
959 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and moist frontal system will slowly move over our
area tonight through Friday, producing significant rainfall. The
associated cold front will stall to our south on Saturday, bringing
us temporarily dry weather, but another system will bring additional
moisture to the region Sunday. The stalled front will retreat
north as a warm front Monday as another strong cold front slides
east. This cold front will slowly move into our area and may stall,
keeping our region unsettled through much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 9:40pm EST: Rain has moved in from the west, as expected, and
most of the CWA now has light to occasionally moderate rain. Surface
winds show northeasterly wedge flow southeast of the mountains
persists, but has become weaker and more disorganized, and winds
over the higher terrain are more southerly in response to strong
850mb flow aloft. As the night proceeds, wedge will gradually break-
up, and southerly flow is expected to prevail everywhere.
Considerable moisture continues to stream into the area above the
wedge and ahead of a frontal system that produced strong convection
in Mississippi and Alabama earlier today. Rain will continue
through Friday until the front passes the area Friday night. The
heaviest period of rain is expected to be during FROPA from late
Friday morning through the afternoon. With warm advection, Friday's
high temperatures will warm into the 60s, and some CAPE is expected
to develop, especially over the southeastern half of the forecast
area. CAPE is limited, though with rather strong vertical shear,
there is an outside chance of severe weather, per the MARGINAL SPC
risk categorization. However, heavy rain with the risk of flooding
continues to be the main threat with this system.
Precipitable water values across the board remain above normal.
Additionally, SBCape from both the NAM and GFS continue to climb
ahead of the front on Friday. We could have some very heavy rainfall
rates if the CAM guidance and longer range guidance materializes.
Temperatures tonight will have a non diurnal trend as the wedge
breaks down tonight. Therefore coldest in the evening, and warmer
Friday morning. We have gone with the slightly warmer suite of
temperatures guidance Thursday, per a number of model sources.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Thursday: The system currently impacting the region
will be moving away from the GSP forecast area on Friday night as
surface high pressure briefly builds into the area. However, strong
mid level ridging centered over the Caribbean will prevent an
associated cold front from clearing moisture out of the region.
Another in a series of impulses will move out of the 4 corners
region which will act to push the moisture back north and into the
forecast area. Expect rain to begin again on Saturday night
continuing into Sunday and into the long term portion of the
forecast. Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough for an all
rain event this weekend. Will need to monitor for additional
potential flooding issues for this weekend system.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: Models are consistent in bringing
additional rainfall to the region early next week. This will be due
to a series of impulses acting on a frontal boundary across the
region. While the rainfall does not currently look extreme, the
continuation of rain across saturated areas will likely require
close monitoring for flooding.
The 12z GFS indicates a pattern shift to drier and cooler conditions
by the middle of next week. However, the 12z ECMWF continues
rainfall across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Current widespread MVFR conditions due
mostly to low ceilings are expected to deteriorate overnight,
reaching IFR to LIFR ceilings after midnight. Showers are
increasing from west to east as synoptic system with a well-defined
surface trough crosses the region. Heaviest period of showers is
expected to be Friday afternoon to evening as main trough crosses
the area. Some thunderstorms are possible at sites near I85 (KCLT,
KGSP and KGMU) early to late Friday afternoon.
Current wind pattern has northeasterly flow in wedge flow southeast
of the mountains, and southerly flow over the mountains as trough
approaches. As trough passes, wedge flow will be disrupted, and
winds are expected to shift from easterly to southwesterly. Fairly
strong winds at 850mb will produce gusty southerly winds to 25kts
near and behind the front for much of the day on Friday, and LLVL
vertical windshear of 30 to 40 kts in the lowest 2000 feet primarily
in the morning.
Outlook: Expect heavy rainfall across the area Tonight and Friday,
with areas of significant restrictions developing. While VFR may
briefly return thereafter, unsettled weather will redevelop over the
weekend as additional waves of moisture move through the southeast.
Confidence Table...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT Med 66% Med 67% High 87% Med 68%
KGSP Med 70% Med 79% High 81% Med 62%
KAVL High 83% High 87% High 83% Low 59%
KHKY Med 73% Med 77% Med 79% Med 66%
KGMU Med 68% High 83% Med 73% Med 68%
KAND Med 60% Med 65% High 83% Low 57%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As previously advertised, a significant concern heading into what
may be a lengthy wet pattern is the very wet antecedent conditions
across our area. Precipitation totals over the past two weeks are
running 150 to 300 percent of normal across most of the region,
with some of the highest deviations from normal occurring across
the flood-prone Blue Ridge Escarpment. While most river systems
have receded to well-below bankfull levels following the heavy
rainfall event last week, ongoing rainfall is occurring over soils
that remain nearly if not completely saturated due to a insufficient
period of dry weather. With soils unable to absorb much additional
rainfall and vegetation entering winter dormancy, it will take
less rain than normal to produce substantial runoff. Given the
active pattern ahead, these conditions will only worsen with each
successive rain event until a prolonged period (at least 7-10 days)
of dry weather arrives.
While model guidance and the official forecast depicts an overall
downward trend in total precipitation with this first event
tonight through Friday; high rainfall accumulations of 2-4" are
still expected, albeit primarily confined to the southern Blue
Ridge Escarpment due to the prevailing flow. Perhaps as much as
50-75% of this rainfall will occur over a 12-hour period tonight,
which, when combined with the antecedent conditions, will result
in reasonably quick responses in the headwaters of the Chattooga,
Cullasaja, Little Tennessee, Nantahala, Tallulah, Tuckasegee, and
upper French Broad River basins basically from Rabun County, GA and
Macon County, NC east towards Henderson County, NC. Rises along
these rivers and associated tributaries are still expected to
cause areas of Minor flooding, which primarily affects low-lying
areas adjacent to streams including farmland, water crossings,
parks, and boat-access areas. The current rainfall forecast has
fortunately reduced, but not eliminated, the likelihood of more
significant flooding, at least through this first event. However,
there is still some uncertainty with exact rainfall totals and
placement and residents are still encouraged to closely monitor
any Flood Warnings and follow the latest river forecasts at:
https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp.
Elsewhere, significant stream response is still expected to cause
isolated Minor flooding. Furthermore, reservoirs remain high,
especially across the Catawba River system, and prolonged high
pools and resultant shoreline flooding appears likely given the
persistently wet pattern ahead. High pools and resultant reservoir
releases may also occur throughout several other systems including
along the Tallulah and Saluda Rivers. Regardless of how this
current event unfolds in terms of overall flooding, each successive
rainfall event will renew the flooding concerns through much of
next week.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
062-063.
SC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for SCZ001>014-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...TS/WJM
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...WJM
HYDROLOGY...Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 452 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510- SCZ001>014-019-282200- Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan- Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains- Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 452 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Additional heavy rainfall will be possible across the region Sunday through Monday night, possibly causing more flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-282200- Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe- Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- 452 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Flood Watch. Additional heavy rainfall will be possible across the region Sunday through Monday night, possibly causing more flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency manager reported flooding along the Green River and some of its tributaries resulted in several road closures in locations around Lake Adger and point downstream. 3 to 4.5 inches of rain fell in the basin in about 24 hours.
Stream gauges near the headwaters of the French Broad River as well as multiple tributaries, including Davidson River and Little River, exceeded their established flood stages after 4 to 6 inches of rain fell throughout the basin from the afternoon of the 27th through the 28th. The French Broad River flooded portions of Hannah Ford Rd and Island Ford Rd, as well as Depot St and Highway 276 in Rosman. Davidson River flooded Davidson River Rd and Wilson Rd in Pisgah Forest. Little River also flooded Merrill Lane. While flood waters receded on most streams by late on the 28th, flooding persisted on the Little River for another day, while river flooding continued on the French Broad downstream of Brevard and Pisgah Forest until January 1st.
Stream gauges and county comms reported small stream flooding across central and northern Henderson Counties after 4.5 to 5.5 inches of rain fell across the county in about 24 hours. A gauge on Mud Creek near Hendersonville indicated flooding of parking lots and side streets on the south side of downtown Hendersonville, near the intersection of South Church St and South King St. In Fletcher, Cane Creek flooded parts of Howard Gap Rd and Hendersonville Rd.
Stream gauges along the Swannanoa River in Buncombe County exceeded their established flood stages after 3 to 4 inches of rain fell throughout the basin in about 24 hours. Low spots on the campus of Warren Wilson College were inundated. The primary impacts were in Biltmore Village in Asheville. The river, along with backwater effects into smaller tributaries flooded and closed multiple streets, including Garfield St, Decatur St, Caledonia Rd, Glendale Ave, Swannanoa River Rd, and Thompson St. Water entered the lower levels of a couple of businesses on Decatur St and Garfield St.
County comms reported the Little Tennessee River overflowed its banks and flooded several low spots, including on Riverside Rd, Needmore Rd, and Carnes Rd. 3.5 to 5 inches of rain fell in the basin in aboout a 24 hour period.
A stream gauge on the Johns River north of Morganton exceeded its established flood stage after around 3 inches of rain fell throughout the basin in about a 24 hour period. Flooded roads included Johns River Loop Rd, Old Johns River Rd, and Valley View Cir. In addition, Warrior Fork overflowed its banks and flooded the intersection of Spainhour Rd and Bost Rd, while Bristol Creek flooded part of Highway 64 in the Chesterfield community.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 798857, 798254, 798866, 798255, 798863, 798856.