Drought in South Dakota, July 1 to 10, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

An area of rain showers is currently affecting the southern
portion of the CWA, and is not having any luck making it further
north. Adjusted POPs to fit this current situation. No changes
made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The main challenge through Sunday will be pcpn chances, and
temperatures. The S/W currently over WY will swing east across NE
and southern SD late tonight into Sunday morning. The models are
all relatively similar with this prognostication. UVM a head of
the feature will support showers/isolated storms forming over
parts of southern SD later this evening, and then tracking
northeast across the eastern part of SD overnight. However, severe
weather is not expected given lack of any decent post frontal
instability. Showers may linger into Sunday morning before
clearing out of the region. Temperatures on Sunday should eclipse
today's highs by a few degrees given moderating airmass, and
expectations for more solar insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Upper trough will lift northeast and out of the region on Sunday,
leading to the initial building ridge that will produce above normal
temperatures through next week. But as that occurs, another
elongated surface low/trough will be stretched from southern WY and
through SD and into northwestern MN through the first half of the
work week, leading to some opportunities for rain over portions of
the region. The main questions will be if there is enough moisture
for development of storms and when/where the cap will be broken
across the area. While an upper trough to the west will bring sw
flow aloft, not seeing much for weak waves moving through. With the
weakly forced setup, think storms will be fairly isolated on Monday
and the best chance may come from the nose of warm air advection
over the northeast part of the CWA during the afternoon/evening. One
other item to mention for Monday is the breezy conditions east of
the surface trough and mainly along and east of the James River
valley. Wind gusts will depend on amount of mixing, but looks like
gusts to the 25-30mph range seems reasonable for now. Tuesday's
setup looks fairly similar for convection, but there is better low
level moisture to the east of the surface trough over eastern SD.
Still limited forcing except right along the surface trough and the
CAP does look present for much of the day. Once again, would likely
be isolated/scattered storm development over eastern SD during the
late afternoon and evening. Wednesday is another repeat, but there
may be a little more of upper level support across the area and
especially closer to ND.

The upper trough will lift out of the area on Wednesday night, as a
more amplified trough approaches the west coast of the CONUS. This
will build the ridge over the western US/Canada through the rest of
the work week before shifting the ridge axis over the Northern
Plains next weekend. This will bring a brief break to the precip
chances as high pressure moves through on Thursday, but could see a
wave rounding the upper ridge on Friday into Saturday as the high
shifts off to the east.

Finally, temperatures throughout the period will be above normal
(looking like upper 80s and lower 90s for highs most days), as the
axis of warmest 850-700mb temps generally stay to the south and west
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

VFR condition will prevail across the area overnight and through the
day Sunday. Rain showers will affect portions of the south central
and eastern CWA overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
334 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

SDZ003>007-009>011-015>018-012045-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-
Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-
334 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018 /234 PM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the region during the
early to middle part of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-019>023-033>037-045-048-051-012045-
Traverse-Big Stone-Roberts-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
334 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018 /234 PM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, with lightning
being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the region during the
early to middle part of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.