A weak upper short wave and a surface trough combined to produce a cluster of severe thunderstorms that moved east across portions of the CSRA of GA and Midlands of SC during the late evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CAE wrote it up.
A weak upper short wave and a surface trough combined to produce a cluster of severe thunderstorms that moved east across portions of the CSRA of GA and Midlands of SC during the late evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 22, 6:52 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Columbia SC 752 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A deep upper low will approach from the west through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon over the weekend. Sunday and Monday will be very warm with highs around 100 degrees and heat index values from 105 to 110 degrees. A backdoor cold front will push through the area early next week bringing temperatures closer to normal for the extended term. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Weak short wave trough moving across the Upstate this evening with stronger lift to the north. Storms moving northeast across GA will encounter airmass with weak instability and less wind shear across the Midlands and CSRA. Trend so far has been weakening storms as they approach the forecast area. Still could see some convection move into the area from the west this evening. Will continue chance pops north and west...but dry weather south and east. Any convection should diminish by late evening with loss of heating. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s with less cloudiness than previous night. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper level trough will lift to the northeast Saturday. While the NAM still brings a decent shortwave through the area Saturday morning, the GFS keeps the moisture south. However, synoptic scale lift will be greatest in the morning while the area is under the right entrance region of a jet streak to the north. Therefore, a few showers will remain possible. Much of the upper level support will be out of the area by Saturday afternoon with westerly flow limiting moisture advection. Any storms that do develop will be isolated. Moisture and instability will be greatest over Georgia, so the best chances will be across the CSRA during the evening. Shear will be weak, so the threat of severe weather appears low. High pressure to the south will build back into the region on Sunday. Isolated diurnal convection will still be possible, but limited by downslope flow. This westerly flow will also cause compressional heating, and Sunday may be warmer than Saturday with 850 mb temps from 20 to 22 C. Heat Index values may therefore range from 105 to 110 F, nearing Heat Advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... There are model discrepancies concerning a cold front that is supposed to come through Monday. The GFS brings it in from the north on Sunday night with a decent chance of rain, and then stalls the front near the coast on Monday. Yet the NAM holds it back until Monday evening. As a compromise, have increasing precipitation chances Sunday night and Monday, with the best chances for scattered storms Monday night and Tuesday. Another wave could come in late Wednesday with another round of convection, but there is uncertainty since the ECMWF keeps a bulk of the moisture well north. The ECMWF doesn't bring this disturbance through until Thursday. Increasing onshore flow could fuel diurnal storms on Friday. It will still be hot on Monday, but then somewhat cooler air will work its way into the forecast area as the front stalls near or south of the CSRA. Temperatures will be closer to normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the low 90s, then warm back up into the mid 90s through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Short wave moving toward the region will move through the terminals during the period. Satellite imagery shows dry air over the area which is causing convection moving toward the area to dissipate. Overnight expect convection to remain north and west of the terminals with coverage diminishing due to loss of heating. Potential for any convection at the terminals too low to include attm so will continue to monitor and adjust as needed in upcoming issuances. With some mixing and mid level clouds overnight potential for fog is also too low to include. With heating Saturday morning diurnal cumulus will develop with isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in early morning fog and afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Columbia SC 510 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018 GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-230915- Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield- McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington- Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon- Bamberg- 510 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Low chance of severe storms late this afternoon and evening with damaging downburst winds as the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Heat index values from 105 to 110 degrees are possible Sunday and Monday. A heat advisory may be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
827 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018
GAZ040-SCZ018-025-230100-
Lincoln GA-McCormick SC-Edgefield SC-
827 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018
...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of central Lincoln...
central McCormick and northwestern Edgefield Counties Until 900 PM
EDT....
...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...
At 826 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near McCormick, or 21 miles south of Abbeville,
moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.
IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
unlikely.
Some locations in the path of this storm include...
McCormick, Parksville and Plum Branch.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
Persons in campgrounds should seek shelter until this storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 3387 8251 3403 8232 3397 8230 3402 8225
3398 8221 3397 8217 3399 8215 3398 8209
3386 8198 3370 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 248DEG 22KT 3387 8233The Columbia radar (KCAE), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:07 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees down near Double Spring Rd and Greenwood Hwy (US Hwy 178).
Multiple trees down near Little Mountain and Prosperity.
Public report and photo, received via social media, of one tree down across Holley Ferry Rd near Carolina Ln.
Trees down near the intersection of Holy Trinity Church Rd and US Hwy 176.
Trees down on Clarks Bridge Rd, and power lines down on SC 34 nearby.
Trees down on Reservoir Rd.
SCHP reported trees down on SC 125 in North Augusta, SC.
SCHP reported multiple trees down on Willingham Dr in Clearwater.
SCHP reported trees down on Heritage Rd at Charleston Hwy (US Hwy 78).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, June 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 760529, 760531, 760533, 760535, 760537, 760540, 760538, 760539, 760543.