NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 6:07 PM EST, 5 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 6:07 PM EST, 5 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
707 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Carolina coast rapidly deepening into a
coastal storm, affecting southern New England tonight into
Tuesday night. This storm will deliver significant accumulating
snow, strong to damaging winds, coastal and marine impacts.
Blustery and chilly weather continues Thursday and Friday
followed by moderating temperatures this weekend. Dry weather
probably dominates late in the week through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 pm update...
Storm structure evolving, deepening off the Carolina coastline.
The N-stream influence, diving S, tucking in behind the closing
low as observed via latest satellite trends. Cyclonic steering
evident, pulling in all the way from the the Pacific, a sub-
tropical connection out of the Gulf, the baroclinic leaf pattern
fanning, its cyclonic stream packing up against the diving
N-stream negatively-tilted trof, also against the rex block /
suppressing wave over SE Canada. Deep synoptic lift evident as
observed from latest WSR-88Ds, especially over Carolinas, though
likely some bright-banding contamination (noting Dual-Pol CC).
Tieing together, the near-term trends exhibiting the surface low
to rapidly deepen S/E of the 40N / 70W benchmark, noting some of
the guidance further out. However the N-stream pull, back to the
W beneath mid-level features, noting some of the model guidance
briefly tugging on the surface low, retrograding back beneath
lower heights with occlusion. Something to watch with respect to
frontogenetical outcomes / snow-banding along with winds that'll
stretch all the way back towards the Berkshires.
For now, E winds enhancing per isallobaric / pressure gradient
response with the surface low deepening off the Mid-Atlantic
during the overnight period. Clouds still on the increase with
mid to upper level decks spreading from S/W with low ocean-
generated stratus drifting in from the E. Lowering and thickening
with time. Dewpoint depressions still remain rather large, and
got the suppressing wave downstream. Precipitation onset closer
to midnight, things get cranking during the early morning hours
4a if the HRRR is correct.
Tuesday...
*/ Highlights...
- Moderate to heavy snow, some locations seeing upwards of a foot
to perhaps two feet total accumulation
- 1-3"/hr snowfall rates at times, producing visibility less than
a quarter of a mile. Winds expected to yield blizzard
conditions to the east coastal shoreline of MA.
- Strong to damaging winds, E gusts up around 65 mph possible for
far E/SE MA coast, brunt of the winds around Tuesday morning
into early afternoon
- Impacting the Tuesday AM commute with difficult, near impossible
travel
- Especially the Tuesday morning high tide, strong E onshore flow
yielding around a 2 to 3+ foot surge, minor to moderate
coastal flooding issues, especially ocean-facing shores,
vulnerable areas impacted by earlier storm systems
*/ Discussion...
Combination of negatively tilted trough pushing thru the Great Lakes
Region and southern stream energy contributing to intense cyclogenenesis
overnight into Tuesday. Operational models indicating low center
pressure drops about 30 mb in 24 hrs, deepening to around 970 mb
and passing just SE of the 40N/70W benchmark around 12Z- 15Z Tue.
The strong cyclogenesis should result in a pronounced lower fronto-
genetical band in the 850-700 mb layer. At this time better shot
for setup of this band looks to be over eastern MA, but can't rule
out another band potentially setting up to the west. Temperatures
cold enough to support snow, except there might be some mixing with
rain for a time on Nantucket Tue morning before turning back to all
snow.
*/ Uncertainty...
Continue to favor a consensus approach with the track of this low
pressure. Thermal profiles increasingly look to favor all snow, with
the exception of Nantucket and the outer Cape where a period of mix
or a changeover to rain should occur. This introduces some uncertainty
on snowfall accumulations.
*/ Snow...
Looking at snowfall totals of 12-18 inches along the Worcester Hills
and far NE CT eastward, with some higher totals around 20 inches
possible. Where the mesoscale banding sets up will ultimately indicate
where the highest snowfall totals will be. Closer to the I-91 corridor
from Greenfield to Hartford and vicinity thinking snowfall totals
will range mainly from 8-12 inches.
Blizzard Warnings issued earlier today for coastal Essex County MA,
Plymouth County and the Cape and Martha's Vineyard. Elsewhere across
southern New England Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for
overnight thru Tuesday.
*/ Winds...
925-850 East winds 3-5+ standard deviation from normal, with 925 mb
winds 50-70 kts along far eastern SNE. Low level lapse rates indicate
sufficient mixing, when combined with precipitation drag, to generate
very gusty winds along the east coast of MA, particularly the Cape
and Islands. Continuing thinking that N/NE winds will gust up to
60-65 mph for the east coastal MA shoreline, with the exception
of the immediate Boston area. Blizzard Warning area includes the
area where these strongest wind gusts are expected, with the exception
of Nantucket. For Nantucket a switchover or mix with rain should
keep this area from hitting blizzard criteria. Hence a High Wind
Warning has been issued for Nantucket.
Again, the brunt of the winds will be Tuesday morning into early
afternoon.
Have gone with snow/liquid ratios comparable to previous forecast,
which is a model blend. Expecting a mainly dry/fluffy snow for
much of the interior. Plymouth County and the Cape and islands
are at greatest risk for a heavy/wet snow plus strong winds,
yielding some potential tree damage and power issues.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night...
Nor'easter departs, resulting in slowly improving conditions from
SW to NE. Snow showers and clouds may linger along and north of
the Mass Pike.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ Highlights...
- Wednesday, possibly Thursday, scattered snow showers / squalls
- Starting as early as Thursday into early next week, cold and dry
- Monitoring the following week for any storm activity
*/ Overview...
Continued La Nina influence over the N Pacific. Variable Pacific jet
however preferred H5 ridging lending to downstream trof-ridge-trof
pattern across the CONUS (Rossby wave train) continues. Subtle shift
yet energy is bowled over SE Canada round which cold air will pour S
over the NE CONUS, also N stream energy. Prolonged period of colder
than average temperature. Snow shower/squall activity early on, then
mostly dry. However, any N-stream energy timed with any coincident S-
stream energy, potential exists for additional Nor'Easter activity.
Winter is not over yet. Short and sweet discussion below due to the
oncoming storm activity.
*/ Discussion...
Wednesday, possibly into Thursday...
Scattered snow showers, squalls. Cold air advection yielding steep
lapse rates up to H7 beneath cyclonic flow, deep low-level moisture.
Potential exists for convective activity, potential instability, the
likelihood of quick accumulating snows with any activity, near white-
out conditions, sudden impacts to travel conditions. Wind headlines
likely extended along with possible short-fused headlines for snow
activity anticipated.
As early as Thursday through early next week...
Keep it mostly cold and dry. Can't rule out a mild, more seasonable
period in-between when winds become light rather than persistent NW
winds. Definitely will be talking about some cold wind chills for
mid-March, especially Thursday into Friday. An eye on potential Wind
Advisory headlines.
Next week...
With energy continually bowled over SE Canada, suppressed from going
any further E by persistence of -NAO, should N energy rotating thru
become coincident with S-stream activity, encapsulation, interaction
between the two could net further Nor'Easter storm activity. For now
very low confidence given being it's well out in time, however not
ignoring some ensemble signals.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight into Tuesday...
CIGs/VSBYs deteriorating tonight with SN/+SN. Possible RA/SN mix or
period of RA over CHH/ACK for a period of time. By 8z (4a) things
will go downhill quick.
MVFR to start towards 6z (2a), lowering to IFR-VLIFR from 06Z-
10Z and lasting for much of Tuesday. N/NE winds strongest with
gusts up to 60 kts around Tuesday morning along east coastal MA.
Blizzard conditions possible with snowfall rates of 1-3 inches
per hour, requiring Airport Weather Warnings. Expect accumulation
on all runways.
Tuesday night...Light snow tapers off, MVFR/IFR CIGs gradually
improve to VFR from S to N.
KBOS Terminal...Snow will accumulate quickly on runways by about
9-10z (5-6a) as N winds increase. Near-blizzard conditions, white-
out. Airport weather warnings will likely be issued for snowfall
rates of 1-3"/hour. Impacts to Tuesday AM push definite.
KBDL Terminal...Snow moving in closer to midnight. Light at first,
picking up in intensity towards the early morning hours Tuesday.
Moderate, heavy at times, looking at IFR-LIFR with accumulations
closing in on 1"/hour at times. Accumulating immediately on
runways. Impacts to Tuesday AM push definite.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with local gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts to
30 kt.
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.
A rapidly intensifying storm will pass just SE of the 40N/70W
benchmark on Tuesday. This storm is expected to achieve a
central pressure as low as 960-970 mb. We expect storm force
winds over most of our waters with gusts as high as 60 kts over
the SE outer waters. Waves will build to between 20 and 25 feet
by late Tuesday morning and possibly to 25 to 30 feet east of
Cape Cod and Nantucket. Snow along the near-shore waters will
reduce visibility to well below 1 mile late tonight and much of
Tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.
Wednesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of snow showers, slight
chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Thursday Night through Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Tuesday morning high tide is the one of concern. Astronomical
high tides are quite low for early this week, and there is fairly
limited time to enable the build up of surge and waves by the
time of high tide. Nevertheless, extremely rapid intensification
of a coastal storm and associated rapid increase in surge and
waves have raised concern for the Tuesday morning high tide
cycle along east coastal Massachusetts.
Latest computer model runs point to a very intense storm that
will pass just southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark. The combination
of slightly stronger conditions and concern for existing shoreline
vulnerability have prompted us to upgrade the Coastal Flood Advisory
along the Hull to Plymouth and Sandwich to Dennis stretch of coastline
to a Coastal Flood Warning. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect
for the ocean side of Cape Cod and Nantucket.
Ocean Side Cape Cod and Nantucket...
We are fairly confident now of coastal impacts reaching moderate
levels. We anticipate the storm surge in this area to increase
rapidly to near 3.5 feet about Nantucket and along the ocean
side of Cape Cod from Truro to Chatham, including Wellfleet,
Eastham, and Orleans. That surge combined with waves that may
reach 25 to 30 feet just east of Cape Cod and Nantucket will
produce areas of moderate coastal flooding and severe erosion.
We anticipate impacts to be exacerbated by vulnerabilities from
the prior two storms.
Hull to Plymouth and Sandwich to Dennis...
Along this stretch of coastline we anticipate minor to moderate
coastal flooding and areas of significant erosion. We are
forecasting a storm surge of near 3 feet except 3 to 3.5 feet
along the Sandwich to Dennis coastline and 15 to 20 foot waves
across Massachusetts Bay and Stellwagen Bank. Here too,
vulnerabilities created from prior storms may exacerbate
impacts.
Ocean Exposed Coastline north of Boston to Salisbury...
Along this reach of ocean exposed Massachusetts coastline, we
anticipate areas of minor coastal flooding and splash over with
a storm surge around 2.5 feet and waves around or a little over
15 feet east of Cape Ann by the time of the Tuesday morning
high tide. As is the case along the rest of the Massachusetts
ocean exposed east coast, impacts could be more significant due
to the current vulnerability of the coastline.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday for MAZ002>006-008>017-020-024-026.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM to noon EDT Tuesday for MAZ019-
022-024.
Blizzard Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
for MAZ007-018-019-021>023.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ024.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon EDT Tuesday for
MAZ007-023.
RI...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231-232-250-
251.
Storm Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ233-234.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ230-236.
Storm Warning from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237.
Storm Warning from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/NMB
NEAR TERM...Sipprell/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Sipprell/NMB
MARINE...Sipprell/Thompson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX Staff