Flooding in Puerto Rico, May 19, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
504 PM AST Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The broad area of surface high pressure, located
across the North-Central Atlantic, that has been the dominant
weather feature across the forecast area for the past several days
will continue to influence our weather pattern through at least
the early part of next week. A TUTT low, currently located
northeast of the Leeward Islands, is expected to remain in that
general vicinity through the next few days and will not have a
significant impact in our local weather conditions. Winds are
expected to remain rather strong through the rest of this weekend
before gradually diminishing by the early to middle part of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...

The shower activity that has been affecting western PR during the
afternoon hours is expected to diminish by early this evening.
During the evening and overnight hours, passing showers embedded
in the strong easterly trade wind flow will at times affect
portions of eastern PR, the USVI, and local waters. On Sunday, a
similar weather pattern to what has been observed during the last
several days is expected with passing showers affecting the
eastern half of PR and the USVI during the morning hours and
showers with possibly some isolated thunderstorms developing
across western PR during the afternoon hours. Model guidance is
suggesting that an area of drier air will move across the
forecast area from the northeast later tomorrow night through the
day on Monday. With this patch of drier air, a fair weather
pattern is expected on Monday across most of the region with
possibly some limited shower activity developing across western PR
during the afternoon hours.

In terms of the winds, easterly winds between 15 and 25 mph
sustained with gusts up to 30 mph is expected to prevail,
especially across coastal regions, through the rest of this
weekend. A slight decrease in the winds is expected by Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...

...PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM AST Sat May 19 2018/

A Surface high pressure system in the Atlantic and TUTT low
will continue to prevail over the area through Thursday. Thursday
the TUTT low lifts off to the northeast and allows ridging aloft
to move into the region. During the long term period expect strong
easterly winds of 10 to 20 kts and fast moving showers embedded
in the trade winds each day. Showers will begin across the U.S.
Virgin Islands, northern and eastern Puerto Rico during the
morning hours; then during the afternoon showers will move across
portions of the interior, northwest and western Puerto Rico
through Thursday. Models have become more consistent in the long
term period starting on Thursday. Thursday Surface winds will be
out of the east southeast across the region. This is typical a wet
pattern for the islands due to east southeast winds plugging into
deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean, but this depends on
the location of the moisture across the Caribbean. At this time
the weekend will likely be wet with scattered showers during the
morning and numerous showers during the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail during the next
24 hours across all the terminals. SHRA over west PR should end by
22z. Passing SHRA will continue across the local waters with a few
showers moving briefly at times across the Leeward/USVI/eastern PR
terminals through Sunday morning. Low level winds will continue from
the east between 15-25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Wind driven seas between 15 to 25 kts will continue to
create hazardous seas across the local waters. Seas will continue
to range between 6 to 8 feet through the rest of the weekend. An
improvement in the seas is expected by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  75  87 /  50  50  20  20
STT  78  79  76  79 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Southeast.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for Culebra-
     Northeast.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for North
     Central-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for St Croix.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Sunday for Anegada
     Passage Southward to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northwestern Puerto
     Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10
     NM-Coastal Waters of Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters
     of Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
     USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Monday for Atlantic Waters
     of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Caribbean
     Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters of
     Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Mona Passage Southward to
     17N.

&&

SHORT TERM...GL
LONG TERM....99

Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
500 AM AST sabado 19 de mayo de 2018

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-200900-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-
Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-
Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
500 AM AST sabado 19 de mayo de 2018

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe la posibilidad de desarrollo de tronadas con
lluvia fuertes y rafagas de vientos esta tarde a traves del oeste
interior y oeste de Puerto Rico.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuerets podrian resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de riachuelos.

.Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos cercanos o un poco sobre 20
nudos a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales con rafagas
cercanos a los 30 nudos.

.Oleaje...Oleaje de 6 a 8 pies a traves de la mayoria de las aguas
locales.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas a
lo largo de las playas orientadas hacia el norte de Puerto Rico, El cocal
en el sureste de Puerto Rico como tambien playas del este de Culebra.
Un riesgo moderado continua  para las playas en Vieques y para el sur y
suroeste de Puerto Rico.

.Dias dos a siete...domingo a viernes

Un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas continuara para el norte de
Puerto Rico y playas del este de Culebra. Riesgo moderado continua
para Vieques y el sur y suroeste de Puerto Rico.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar vientos
fuertes y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en
San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-200900-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
500 AM AST sabado 19 de mayo de 2018

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es para
las Islas Virgenes Americanas y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos cercanos o un poco sobre 20
nudos a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales con rafagas
cercanos a los 30 nudos.

.Oleaje...Oleaje de 6 a 8 pies a traves de la mayoria de las aguas
locales.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas a
traves de las playas orientadas hacia el este y norte de Santa Cruz.
En el resto del area, un riesgo moderado continua.

.Dias dos a siete...domingo a viernes

Un riesgo alto a moderado de corrientes marinas continuara
prevaleciendo a traves de Santa Cruz el domingo. Un riesgo moderado
de corrientes marinas tambien continuara a traves de la mayoria de
las playas del norte de las Islas Virgenes Americanas hasta temprano la
proxima semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar corrientes marinas
al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.