Local and diurnal effects resulted in the development of showers and thunderstorms across the northwest quadrant of PR during the afternoon hours.
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The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Local and diurnal effects resulted in the development of showers and thunderstorms across the northwest quadrant of PR during the afternoon hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 11:09 AM AST, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1109 AM AST Wed Jul 25 2018 .UPDATE...Made changes to the forecast package to lower probability of precipitation over U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern half of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Latest radar obs and satellite images still show a band of showers moving quickly west across the USVI and Vieques and Culebra associated with the weak tropical wave that is currently moving across the region. However...high resolution models dissipate most of this shower activity by the time it reaches the big island of Puerto Rico as much drier air rush behind the wave. Will keep however scattered to numerous showers over western interior and northwestern PR as the little moisture associated with the wave reaches the area during the maximum heating time of the day. Will expect most of the activity from Mayaguez north, but will not rule out a few showers affecting the southwest portion of the big island. Rest of the forecast package looks reasonable and on track so will not introduce additional changes at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 452 AM AST Wed Jul 25 2018/ SYNOPSIS...Tutt low will continue to meander north and west of the region through the period. Strong surface high pressure across the north central Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeast winds across the forecast area. A weak tropical wave will move across the region today through Thursday slightly increasing moisture content and instability. However, a surge in Saharan dust will quickly follow and this should again limit significant shower activity across the region. A drier air will move into the area after the passage of the wave, promoting mostly fair weather and hazy skies through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. SHORT TERM...Today through Friday... A surface and mid level ridge will hold across the region through Friday. The surface ridge of high pressure will continue to promote moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the area through Thursday. The MIMIC products shows a dry slot currently over Puerto Rico this drier air will continue to move to the west this morning. Right on the hills of the dry slot is moisture from A TUTT induced wave that will move well to the north of Puerto Rico today. Recent analysis of cross-section, SJU-GFS model replaces the drier air with a moist environment by 25/12Z. This also is depicted by the relative humidity and dew point at 1000-850 mb and 500-700 mb. Showers will develop over the U.S. Virgin Islands soon and will continue to progress to the west across Culebra and Puerto Rico later this morning and into the afternoon. Due to the lack of upper level support thunderstorms are not expected across the area today, and area wide heavy rain is not expected either due to the lack of instability and dry mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. The higher rainfall amounts will be over the northwest and western Puerto Rico which could see 0.50 inch of rain with higher amounts possible in isolated areas. Thursday some low level moisture mixed with Saharan dust will move over the region this combined with the meandering TUTT low north of Puerto Rico, will aid in the development of scattered showers across the eastern areas of the region during the morning, then convection will develop over western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon. Friday the TUTT low continues to meander to the southwest of the area but remains slightly northwest of Puerto Rico. Diurnal and locally induced effects will help in the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of northwestern Puerto Rico, and scattered showers across the eastern areas. LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... Shallow patches of trade wind moisture are expected to move through the area through the weekend supporting locally and diurnally induced afternoon convection each day. Model guidance continue to suggest precipitable water values to fluctuate between 1.50-1.75 inches through Sunday but increasing by Monday and Tuesday with the approach of the tropical wave. Therefore, expect periods of locally and diurnally induced convection, with the heaviest rainfall expected during the afternoons and mainly over parts of the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. A few showers may also form and stream across parts of the San Juan metro area and on the west end of the U.S. Virgin Islands, with periods of moderate to heavy downpours possible in isolated spots. Recent NAAPS Aerosol model guidance continued to suggest increasing Saharan dust particulates across the region once again over the weekend. This in turn will limit shower activity across the forecast area. Easterly winds will persist through the weekend , but should shift and become more southeasterly and increase again on Monday and Tuesday with the passage of the aforementioned tropical wave and accompanying moisture and instability. Improving conditions expected by Wednesday of next week. AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through 25/16z. VCSH are expected across TIST, TISX and TJSJ this morning will clearing likely by 25/16Z. SHRA/VCSH is expected over terminals TJBQ and TJMZ by 25/17Z with cleaning expected by 25/22Z. Sfc winds out of the east to southeast at 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts. MARINE...moderate to fresh east-southeast trade winds will continue with periods of mostly scattered showers over the regional waters. Seas will remain choppy with seas of 3 to 6 feet in exposed waters. Small craft advisories are not expected for next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 30 20 STT 89 80 88 79 / 30 20 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && SHORT TERM...RGH LONG TERM....RGH
Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 1114 AM AST miercoles 25 de julio de 2018 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-261515- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior- Norte Central- Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad- Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe- 1114 AM AST miercoles 25 de julio de 2018 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Tronadas...Existe la posibilidad de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y vientos en rafaga breves esta tarde a traves de sectores del noroeste de Puerto Rico. .Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes pudieran resultar en inundacioens urbanas y de riachuelos a traves de sectores del noroeste de Puerto Rico. .Vientos...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 MPH a traves de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico. .Olas...Oleaje picado/vigoroso de hasta 6 pies se espera mayormente para las aguas del Atlantico. .Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para algunas de las playas locales en Puerto Rico. .Calor...Vientos alisios del sureste resultaran en temperaturas por encima del promedio e indices de calor de 102 a 107 a lo largo de la costa norte y sur de Puerto Rico. .Dias dos a siete...jueves a martes El riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas continuara por los proximos dias mayormente a traves a traves de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y los pasajes locales. El polvo del Sahara se quedara en la region con parchos de humedad periodicos moviendose desde el este. Una vaguada en la altura serpenteara al norte de Puerto Rico durante el periodo a largo plazo, como resultado, se esperan aguaceros a traves de sectores del este de Puerto Rico en la manana y sectores del oeste de Puerto Rico en la tarde. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-261515- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 1114 AM AST miercoles 25 de julio de 2018 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es para las Islas Virgenes Americanas y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas para algunas de las playas del norte y este de Santa Cruz. .Dias dos a siete...jueves a martes El riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas continuara por los proximos dias mayormente a traves a traves de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y los pasajes locales. El polvo del Sahara se quedara en la region con parchos de humedad periodicos moviendose desde el este. Una vaguada en la altura serpenteara al norte de Puerto Rico durante el periodo a largo plazo, como resultado, se esperan aguaceros a traves de St. Thomas y St. Cruz durante las horas de la manana.. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
The San Juan radar (TJUA), 119 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:01 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm caused damage to a zinc roof in a house in Barrio Carrizales, Sector Tablonales, located along Road PR-115, KM 25.1. The family reported damage to their furniture.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 776710.