Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 25, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

A cold frontal boundary was pushing south through northern and
northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado early this afternoon,
partially aided by outflow from overnight/early morning thunderstorms
across Nebraska. Strong heating has pushed temperatures into the
mid 90s across much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints
mixing out into the upper 50s to low 60s. Resulting MLCAPEs have
increased to 1000-2000 j/kg especially across the western half of
the forecast area. In addition, deep layer (0-6km) shear has
increased into the 30-40 knot range mainly over central and parts
of west central Kansas.

Isolated thunderstorms were forming over north central Kansas early
this afternoon in an area of enhanced low level convergence.
CAMs show this trend continuing with storms developing farther
west into west central Kansas and southeast Colorado. Given the
instability and shear, thunderstorms will initially be capable of
producing hail up to golf ball size along with damaging wind
gusts to 70 mph. As we move into the evening hours, thunderstorms
should continue to become more numerous and move south across the
remainder of southwest Kansas overnight. Strong to damaging winds
will become the main severe weather threat, especially if storms
are able to become organized into bow/line segments. Think that by
midnight, the severe threat should be diminishing considerably as
the front/outflow pushes through the region. There will be a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms into the late night
hours as a mid level shortwave disturbance moves out over the
High Plains.

Thursday will be quite a bit cooler as a cooler airmass pushes
into the central High Plains behind the front. Chances for
additional showers and thunderstorms will be fairly small to
negligible as the stable airmass overspreads the region. Highs on
Thursday should top out in the low to mid 80s, depending on how
much lingering cloud cover there is.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Thursday night will be noticeably quieter across western Kansas.
The greatest instability will be shifted west into the Colorado
Front Range where afternoon thunderstorms will initiate. Don't
have a lot of confidence they will reach the Kansas border but
will maintain some slight chance pops in the far southwest just in
case. There could be some lingering showers and possible
thunderstorms along the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas as
well.

On Friday, the surface high pressure slides off to the east with
moist low level return flow setting up across the western High
Plains. Another weak fast moving shortwave disturbance is progged
to move out of the northern Rockies out over the central High
Plains late Friday. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to suggest
afternoon thunderstorm development over the eastern slopes that
organizes into a convective complex that move out over western
Kansas Friday night.

The upper level pattern of somewhat cyclonic northwest flow aloft
continues through the weekend which will keep conditions favorable
for repeated nighttime thunderstorm complexes. By early next week,
the upper ridge builds back toward the central High Plains which
should bring a decrease in the wet weather pattern across the
central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity is expected to
affect all terminals this period. Best time frame will be mid to
late evening hours. After midnight (05Z), much of the activity
will be shifting to the south with an overal weakening trend,
although some scattered showers/weak thunderstorms may continue
through about 08-10Z. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will become
northeast late in the period behind all the storms. Stratus will
also probably exist in the cooler/moist airmass, although there is
not a high degree of confidence in extent and ceiling. Some
MVFR/IFR may be possible Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  83  63  84 /  80  30  10  20
GCK  66  82  62  83 /  80  30  10  20
EHA  64  83  64  85 /  60  20  20  20
LBL  65  84  65  85 /  80  20  20  20
HYS  66  81  63  84 /  60  40  10  10
P28  70  84  66  87 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
255 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018 /155 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening and
tonight. Storms will begin across the northern counties during the
5-7 pm timeframe, and propogate southward through midnight. The
strongest storms will be severe, producing hail up to golfball
size and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Locally very heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning can be expected.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm hail: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday.
Models continue to focus the most widespread activity, and the
highest risk of flooding rains/damaging winds during the Friday
night/Saturday morning time frame. Additional thunderstorm
complexes are expected periodically through the weekend.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected to be required, mainly across the
northern counties, this evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
629 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

KSZ061-062-260015-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
629 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT/615 PM MDT/...

At 629 PM CDT/529 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 17 miles north of Kendall, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hamilton and northwestern Kearny Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM
CDT/midnight MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3826 10160 3826 10117 3794 10138 3814 10168
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 300DEG 10KT 3818 10155

JJOHNSON