A strong cold front crossed central Pennsylvania during the evening of January 12, 2018. The front was preceded by near-record warmth, and accompanied by showers and gusty thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A strong cold front crossed central Pennsylvania during the evening of January 12, 2018. The front was preceded by near-record warmth, and accompanied by showers and gusty thunderstorms. Temperatures dropped quickly behind the front, with precipitation changing over to a wintry mix and eventually snow. Several ice jams were reported over northern Pennsylvania.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 7:36 AM EST, 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 736 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front will push southeast into Pennsylvania today. A developing wave of low pressure on the front will track across southeast Pa late tonight. A deep upper level trough will swing through the region this weekend into the middle of next week, then lift out by the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10Z radar loop showing the steadiest/heaviest rain falling across northwest Pa in region of fgen forcing within jet streak right entrance region. HREFV2 and latest HRRR indicate this area of heaviest rain will lift north of the border by mid morning, with showery/mild weather remaining across central Pa the rest of the day. Deep southerly flow ahead of approaching cold front will continue to flood the region with unseasonably mild air today, with highs from the 50s north to mid 60s over the southeast portion of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Latest models continue to indicate a ptype changeover to mixed precip across northwest Pa this evening, as low level cold air undercuts deep/moist southerly flow in advance of shortwave lifting up the Appalachians. As surface low tracks across southeast Pa late tonight, confidence increasing in a period of heavy snow across northwest Pa in association with fgen forcing within thermally direct jet entrance circulation. 00Z HREFV2 supports a high confidence of around 6 inches across Warren/Mckean counties, with a few hours of 1 inch/hour rates likely around midnight. Based coordination with neighboring offices, have added Potter/Elk/Cameron to the warning, but confidence in reaching the 6 inch criteria is not as high in this area. The heavy snow will be preceded by a transition from rain to wintry mix which will shift to the southeast with time. The shallow cold air will initially undercut the warm/moist air with a significant icing zone possible over parts of Central PA before changing to snow as cold air deepens through the column. Based on model soundings and WPC guidance, believe fzra will be fairly short-lived with sleet a more predominant ptype before eventual change to snow early Sat morning. A very messy start to the weekend for sure, with a glaze of ice and coating of snow/sleet possible as far southeast as the Lower Susq Valley. Expect any lingering light snow/flurries to taper off by late Saturday morning, as upper level shortwave and associated surface low rapidly lift northeast of Pa. Much colder air will pour into the state on northwest flow in the wake of this system Saturday. SREF plumes indicate very little rise from early AM temps and highs only in the teens over the NW Mtns to low 30s across the southeast counties. Dry, arctic air and low inversion heights should limit lake effect activity to mainly just flurries across the western mountains Saturday afternoon and night. Main concern will be low wchills Sat night. Current indications are for apparent temps close to advisory levels over the northern mountains Sat night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Winter conditions for much of the extended. Cold and windy Sunday with temperatures below average everywhere. Cold for the first half of the work week. Will keep low pops for light snow across the western half of area. Next weather system later on Wednesday with a period of snow possible for much of the region. Some snow accumuations are possible with this. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread restrictions ongoing over Central PA will continue through tonight as a slow moving cold front pushes southeast across the CWA. Periods of rain along with MVFR to IFR restrictions and gusty south winds will graudally changeover to a wintry mix then snow from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. Winds too will shift from south/southeast to northwest with the passage of a strong cold front. LLWS everywhere this morning will impact mainly eastern half from midday onward. Low ceilings and reduced visibilitiesexpected to persist into Saturday as well as gusty NW winds, with improving weather for later in the weekend. Outlook... Sat...AM rain/low cigs poss east. AM snow/ice poss central/west. Sun...No sig wx expected. Mon...PM light snow poss west. PM low cigs poss east. Tue...Morning snow ending. Becoming VFR south and east, lingering snow showers and restrictions over the mountains. && .HYDROLOGY... A mild surge in temperatures combined with 1-3 inches of rain will produce significant rises on rivers and streams with the potential for ice jams and low-lying flooding. Streamflows are currently low, but many waterways are choked with ice. The greatest risk of flooding is in the Watch area over north- central PA where snowmelt will be a contributing factor today. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday evening for PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ012-017>019-024>027-033-037-041-042-045-046- 049>053. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ028-034>036-056>059-063>066. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ006-010-011. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ004-005. && SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Ross/RXR AVIATION...RXR HYDROLOGY...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 450 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 PAZ012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-131000- Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- 450 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ028-034>036-056>059-063>066-131000- Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 450 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ024>027-033-131000- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Somerset- 450 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ004-005-131000- Warren-McKean- 450 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ006-010-011-131000- Potter-Elk-Cameron- 450 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM FLOOD 3 N LEWIS RUN 41.91N 78.66W
01/12/2018 MCKEAN PA 911 CALL CENTER
ICE JAM REPORTED ON MINARD RUN ROAD. ONE HOUSE AND ONE
VEHICLE FLOODED. JAM IS RECEDING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CTP1800041
CRPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN BRADFORD REGIONAL 41.80N 78.64W
01/12/2018 M1.74 INCH MCKEAN PA ASOS
&&
EVENT NUMBER CTP1800042
CRThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter storm, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Ice jam reported on Minard Run Road. One house and one vehicle was flooded.
A winter storm produced 5 to 7 inches of snow across McKean County.
A winter storm produced 5 to 7 inches of snow across Potter County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, January 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 736884, 730103, 730104.