High Wind in Oregon, January 17 to 18, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
306 PM PST Wed Jan 17 2018

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday. A deep upper low centered
near 48N/135W will track east-northeast toward northern B.C.
tonight. The low will force a strong cold front east of the Cascades
tomorrow. Surface winds ahead of the front are gusting to 45-50 mph
in the southern Grande Ronde Valley, and a wind advisory was issued
earlier for this area in effect until 8 AM Thurs morning. Gusts to
35-45 mph will continue in the northern Grande Ronde Valley and just
along the base of the OR Blue Mountain Foothills east of Milton-
Freewater and Pendleton tonight, and these winds are just shy of
advisory criteria.

The cold front is well organized, and QPF amounts of 0.25-0.6 inch
are forecast for most of the area ahead of the front. Snow levels
will also lower significantly behind the front. Snow levels will
range from 4500-5500 feet early Thursday morning lowering to 2500-
3500 feet behind the front Thursday afternoon and evening.  The
front will approach the eastern slopes of the WA/OR Cascades around
sunrise, across the Basin and the Columbia Deschutes Plateau during
the morning, then across the remainder of the forecast area during
the afternoon. Despite the cold air and lowering snow levels,
precipitation will taper off behind the front.  From Thursday night
through Friday morning, precipitation will mainly be orographic
mountain snow showers with around 1-3 inches of accumulation in the
populated mountain areas and around 5-10 inches over the highest
peaks of the Elkhorns, Wallowa Mountains, and the Strawberry
Wilderness.

From Friday through Saturday, there will be two weak shortwave
troughs bringing scattered snow showers over the mountains and
isolated snow showers elsewhere. Elevations below 2500 feet will see
light rain or light rain/snow mix. Precipitation amounts will be
light with only 1-3 inches of new snow possible in the mountains
with each shortwave. Afternoon temperatures during this time will be
in the 30s over the mountains and 40s in the lower elevations which
is near average for this time of the year.  Wister

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday morning...An active
weather pattern continues as a series of waves around the low in the
Gulf of Alaska continue to move through the region. At the outset of
the period weak ridging in the trough-ridge-trough pattern will be
over the region. This will quickly move off to the east ahead of the
first impulse associated with the aforementioned Gulf of Alaska low
entering the area during the day on Sunday. Precipitation will taper
off during the day on Monday as transient ridging builds back in for
Monday night/Tuesday with the next significant shot of energy
entering the region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Snow
levels during the periods of heaviest precipitation associated with
each warm front will be 3000-4000 feet, falling to around 2500 feet
with passage of the cold front with each system. Both systems should
result in some helpful additions to the mountain snowpack, but will
also include impacts to those transiting the passes. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above period through the extended. Breezy
conditions will be possible late Sunday night/Monday morning as
trough crosses local maximum of 850mb winds along the Columbia
River, but given timing with convective mixing at a minimum may be
more of a localized threat for downslope favored areas and
ridgetops. 74

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...At this hour there is still a little patchy
stratus/light fog in the lower Columbia Basin and Yakima valley and
this may continue to drift in and out of PSC/YKM through early
evening. A cold front moving through the region beginning late this
evening will bring precipitation and MVFR/low VFR ceilings to the
terminals. Cig will rise to 5000-10000ft behind the front in the
afternoon. Winds will be generally less than 10KTs except in central
Oregon where a few gusts into the 20s this afternoon will slowly
weaken into the evening and in the immediate vicinity of the
northern Blue Mountains where winds will gust 25-35KTs with
downslope enhanced winds primarily affecting ALW. 74

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  42  49  35  46 /  40  80  30  10
ALW  42  50  36  47 /  50  90  30  10
PSC  40  50  35  47 /  60  60  10  10
YKM  38  48  31  44 /  70  40  10  10
HRI  43  50  35  48 /  50  70  10  10
ELN  34  44  28  40 /  80  40  10  20
RDM  40  45  27  42 /  60  60  30  20
LGD  41  46  32  42 /  10  90  60  40
GCD  43  47  29  40 /  10  80  60  30
DLS  42  51  35  47 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 8 AM PST Thursday for ORZ049.

WA...None.
&&

85/74/74