An incoming cold front brought high winds to some locations in coastal and south central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming cold front brought high winds to some locations in coastal and south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 17, 9:07 AM PST, 6 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
907 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2018
.DISCUSSION...Valley fog is an issue this morning and has brought
visibility down below a mile at both MFR and RBG airports. With
widespread high clouds and overrunning warm front, these two areas
could be slow to improve today. Elsewhere the 12Z guidance is on
track to bring a cold front inland this evening. The South to
North pressure gradients continue to be significant and the
current wind advisory and warning appear reasonable. Mountain snow
starts Thursday morning with the snow levels on Thursday down to
400-4500 foot Cascades west and 5500-6000 feet east. Snow levels
lower to around 2500 feet on Friday. Snowfall accumulation
through mid day Friday is around a foot at Crater Lake and Mount
Shasta (base), and about 9 inches at Mount Ashland (base). Current
forecast covers this trend and no update will be issued this
morning. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...17/12Z TAF CYCLE...Patchy IFR in the west side valleys
this morning, otherwise, mostly VFR today. Main concern continues
to be low level wind speed shear at west side TAF sites due to
strong winds just off the surface and relatively lighter winds at
the ground. Gusty south winds should develop at North Bend by late
this morning with some south to southeast wind also surfacing at
Roseburg and Medford by early this afternoon. Expect conditions to
deteriorate along the coast this afternoon and evening with MVFR
ceilings and rain spreading inland with a cold front. Expect MVFR
overnight into Thursday morning with widespread terrain
obscurations and periods of rain. Freezing levels up around 10000
feet today will lower to around 5500 feet by Thursday morning.
-Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Wednesday 17 Jan 2018...Conditions
will be hazardous to small craft early this morning due to steep
westerly swell and increasing south winds. A strong front will move
through the waters late this morning into this evening with strong
south gales across most of the area and storm force winds and/or
gusts beyond 15 NM of the coast north of Cape Blanco. The front will
move onshore this evening, with a very high and dangerous westerly
swell to follow late tonight into Thursday. Model guidance has been
steadfast, showing the swell peaking at around 28 feet early
Thursday. Expect a 24-36 hour period of extremely rough surf, making
bar crossings very dangerous. Seas will remain elevated with weaker
systems moving through Thursday night into Friday night. A High Surf
Advisory will likely be in effect once the warning ends. Another
strong front will move through Saturday night into Sunday. Offshore
high pressure will build Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2018/
DISCUSSION...
The satellite is starting to show a pretty impressive low building
this morning out in the Pacific. As the low and front begin to
progress inland, we'll be impacted by winds, snow and rain across
our warning area.
Winds: First, a pretty nice north to south pressure gradient sets
up between Redding and Medford at about 7-8 mb. This should be
enough to produce some windy conditions in the Rogue Valley.
After looking at the higher resolution guidance, we decided to
issue a wind advisory for the city of Ashland and the upper part
of the Rogue Valley. Didn't extend it down to Medford because the
trough isn't negatively tilted and the winds aloft are more south
to southwest instead of southeast.
Elsewhere, the coast, Eastside and the Shasta valley will be
quite windy for the reasons mentioned above. The winds on the
Eastside are still a bit more uncertain because the 700 mb winds
do drop off as the front moves farther eastward. Again would like
to see a larger area of 65-70 knot winds to go with the warning,
but we'll stay the course tonight.
Precipitation: Nothing too extreme here except the bulk of the
rain and snow will come with frontal passage Wednesday night
between 10pm and 4am and again on Thursday night as a short wave
moves onshore. If you add up the rain from 0z Thursday to 0z
Sunday, you see about 3-6 inches of rain along the coast with
about 1 -2 inches in the west side valleys and the Cascades. The
saving grace in this case is that it occurs over a 72 hour period,
so the precipitation rates are not that extreme. The Chetco Bar
burn scar was talked about, but we've already seen precipitation
rates of this magnitude this winter and didn't feel it was enough
to validate a flash flood watch.
Snow: The snow forecast is similar to how precipitation evolves
as this system hangs out in the Gulf of Alaska through Friday
morning. Snow levels ahead of the cold front are around 8000 feet,
but they will drop down to 5500 and 4500 feet behind frontal
passage Wednesday night around 4am. The snow levels will continue
to drop Thursday night down to 3500 feet and perhaps 2500 to 2000
feet Saturday.
Since the flow is continually onshore, we'll see between 12 to 16
inches of snow on the mountains throughout the event through 12z
Saturday. With the continuous onshore flow and low snow levels,
areas in the Kalmiopsis wilderness about 3000 feet will also see a
significant amount of snowfall up to 20 inches in isolated areas because
of the continuous moist onshore flow.
Again, because of the long duration of the event and lack of
impacts on transportation, stayed away from any winter products.
Snow fall rates will be pretty nice and in Western Siskiyou county
as a short wave passes through Thursday night, so will pass along
to the day shift that an advisory may be needed for that time
period.
-Smith
AVIATION...17/06Z TAF CYCLE...Conditions remain mainly VFR late
this evening though with patches of valley IFR, mainly in Josephine
County and Douglas County. A warm front will bring lowering CIGS to
the coast around 8Z, while IFR fog may also develop in other west
side valleys overnight including the Rogue Valleys. But, otherwise,
it should remain VFR across the area through Wednesday evening. The
main concern will be wind speed shear starting around 8Z and lasting
into most of Wednesday morning at which point gusty winds are
expected to develop at North Bend. Wind shear is also likely to
develop at Roseburg and Medford around 13Z and continue into the
early afternoon. The valley low clouds and fog should be shallow and
dissipate during Wednesday morning as surface winds begin to
increase. -DW
MARINE...Updated 250 AM PST Wednesday 17 Jan 2018...Conditions will
be hazardous to small craft early this morning due to steep westerly
swell and increasing south winds. A strong front will move through
the waters late this morning into this evening with strong south
gales across most of the area and storm force winds and/or gusts
beyond 15 NM of the coast north of Cape Blanco. The front will move
onshore this evening, with a very high and dangerous westerly swell
to follow late tonight into Thursday. Model guidance has been
steadfast, showing the swell peaking at around 30 feet early
Thursday. Seas will remain elevated with weaker systems moving
through Thursday night into Friday. Another strong front will move
through Saturday night into Sunday.
Along the coast, a High Surf Warning is in effect beginning late
this evening, but have narrowed the window a bit based on the new
guidance bringing conditions below warning levels a bit sooner (by
Friday morning). Either way, expect a 24-36 hour period of extremely
rough surf, making bar crossings very dangerous. Still expect High
Surf Advisory level conditions after that Friday through Friday
night. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday for
ORZ021-022.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Thursday
for ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Thursday for
ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening
for ORZ026.
CA...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Thursday
for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Thursday for
CAZ081.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Thursday for
CAZ085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Storm Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ370.
FJB/FJB/MAPThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Flynn Prairie RAWS recorded gusts to 60 mph at 17/1613 PST and 17/1713 PST.
The Coffee Pot Flat RAWS recorded a gust to 60 mph at 18/0344 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 727513, 727514.