A vigorous cold front crossed the region on Saturday afternoon and evening, producing measured gusts up to 52 mph.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A vigorous cold front crossed the region on Saturday afternoon and evening, producing measured gusts up to 52 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 20, 2:36 PM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
336 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Potent weather disturbance over Michigan will drive a strong
cold front through the Ohio Valley early this evening with a few
showers, and very gusty winds. A few snow showers can't be ruled
out before precipitation ends later this evening in some areas. Strong
high pressure builds into the central United States on Sunday
and will bring a long stretch of dry, cool weather, likely
lasting much of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weather-packed near term period thanks to potent shortwave
trough bringing a great deal of changeable weather and potential
through sunrise as detailed below.
Observational analysis - GOES East water vapor loops are
extremely impressive this afternoon showing compact/strong
shortwave trough driving east through lower Michigan, in the
left exit region of a 120+kt 500 mb jet streak over Illinois
which itself is beautifully represented by an axis of
darkening/drying on water vapor. Strong low topped convection
has been racing across southern Michigan with near-severe wind
gusts /see recent SWOMCDs and SWODY1 from SPC/ and will largely
stay north of the ILN CWA. A few deeper cumulus are now
developing immediately of the cold front over northern IND/OH -
which are the early stages of showers which will pass through
parts of the CWA. Surface pressures are falling in earnest over
northeast Ohio /3mb per 3 hour/...with a sibling pressure rise
couplet /6mb per 3 hours/ over Wisconsin. In response to these
mass fields, surface winds have been steadily increasing all day,
with a wide swath of observed wind gusts now from 35-45 mph from
western Ohio back through Indiana, Illinois, eastern Iowa, and
southern Wisconsin, which perfectly lines up with a RAP-analyzed
925mb-850mb low level wind maximum of 40-45kts. Immediately on the
cool side of the strong cold front, low level lapse rates are
pretty much dry adiabatic to 750mb amidst a very strong low level
cold advection maximum. These areas /eastern Iowa, southern
Wisconsin, northern Illinois/ have already seen wind gusts to 45
to 50 mph, and the system is still deepening. As of 19Z, the trop
fold /pressure of the 1.5 potential vorticity surface/ is ~675mb
over northern Illinois, and this will lower to about 700mb by the
time it makes it into the ILN CWA.
Wind threats/impact - as 200+dm 500mb height falls spread across
Ohio into West Virginia, the potent shortwave trough will
continue to deepen as the 500mb jet streak rotates southeast
through Kentucky. Given the system is still deepening, mass
response will continue to increase as well, most notably seen
in an acceleration of the potent low level cold front, sharpening
of the low level pressure gradient over Ohio, and increase in the
low level wind maximum to rotate through the forecast area. Wind
will impact the CWA in two ways - first and in the most widespread
fashion - the large 925-850mb layered low level jet will spread
across the forecast area atop the strong cold front. Ahead of the
front, this will produce widespread wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph
through about 4 or 5 PM. Behind the cold front, where cold
advection is juxtaposed with the leading edge of strong
isallobaric forcing /pressure rises increasing to 8mb per 3
hours/, steep lapse rates, and 45kts of wind at 850mb, gusting
will increase and become much more efficient given many downward-
focused transfer parameters will be in place. This setup will last
a few hours at any given spot, and will give most areas more than
enough window of opportunity for 45-50mph gusts. A second, and
admittedly little more concerning way that impact winds will be
seen, is focused a little later in the evening /after 00Z til
about 03Z/ north of the Ohio River and particularly in central
Ohio, where the 20.12Z HRRR ensemble, and recent RAP and NAM runs
agree that a secondary pressure rise couplet will develop and move
through central/northern Ohio as surface low pressure deepens off
Lake Erie into nwrn PA. A renewed 50-55kt low level jet develops
and curves into central Ohio amidst very strong cold advection and
a much stronger pressure gradient. Forecast soundings almost get
borderline High Wind Warning looking in this area for an hour or
two, and am banking on the onset of darkness to keep strongest
gusts at bay, but would not at all be surprised to a few 55 mph
gusts especially in central Ohio this evening. HRRR ensemble probs
of 50kt gusts certainly peaks here, and seeing it
deterministically in RAP/HRRR runs too.
Thunder chances - have all but pulled thunder from the forecast
late this afternoon/evening, save for the far northern portions
of the forecast area. Given forecast soundings, EQL temps really
struggle to get to -15C or -20C /enough for charge separation/,
and if they do, is only for an hour or so at any one spot. Have
kept thunder mention relegated to the far north where best
potential overlap of frontal intrusion into daytime meager
instability is maximized.
Snow Showers - To compound things there will also be a
mesoscale band of moderate rain showers pivoting through central
Ohio at about the same time as the second region of strong winds,
which may turn to snow briefly. If anyone saw southern Wisconsin
today /Madison/, this potential was realized with a quick
snowburst and minor slushy accumulation. While we have snow
showers in the forecast in central Ohio this evening, we don't
offer up any accumulations given things will have to come together
just right, but it is not out of the realm of possibilities,
either - and this would be in that 8PM-11PM timeframe for
Columbus/Delaware/Newark areas. An SPS for a brief slushy snow
burst may be needed at some point, and thankfully road temps will
support quick melting for all but the very heaviest rates.
Something to definitely watch amidst a much larger and more
important signal of strong winds.
Freezing Temperatures - was on the fence all shift about
needing a Freeze Warning in the south - the portion of our CWA
not yet seeing a hard freeze. Ran a blend of NAM/HRRR/RAP/HREF
2m temps which handle plume of warm flow off Lake Michigan the
best. Unfortunately this plume of warmth bisects the ILN
forecast area, with high probabilities of freezing temps in
southeast Indiana and portions of nrn KY (Batesville down to
Owenton),and also further east across the lower Scioto Valley
and northeast KY. In between, this plume of lake-effect warming
of the boundary layer and possibly a band of low stratus will
complicate the freeze potential for areas like the CVG metro
down into Pendleton County. Consensus of all WFOs neighboring
ILN was to issue a Freeze Warning, so have done so given
background cold temps for most areas. But am pretty confident
there will be a stripe of warmth that could very well involve
the CVG metro where a plume of warmth/low clouds off Lake
Michigan, when combined with the urban heat island, keep
freezing temperatures at bay.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1033mb surface high at 12z Sunday over Missouri will begin to
weaken as quickly builds into and across KY by day's end.
Backing low level flow from northwesterly to southwesterly will
combine with ample sunshine for a cool/sunny autumn day with
light winds. Most areas being held in the 40s owing to 925mb
temperatures well below climo, running around 0C. Clear skies
continue into Sunday night with light southwest winds. Likely
there will be a good deal of frost, but considering growing
season will have likely all but ended in most areas, will keep
frost wording out of the forecast at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A fairly benign pattern with higher than average forecast confidence
is upon the Ohio Valley for this forecast period.
High pressure south of the region on Monday will permit sunny skies
and a southerly flow to warm readings to the mid and upper 50s.
Similar temperatures will be found on Tuesday in the wake of a
southward progressing cold front with ample sunshine. After this,
high pressure over the Upper Midwest will funnel colder air to the
region on northerly winds. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday should
only top out within a few degrees of 50. Temperatures will then
moderate at the end of the week and climb back into the mid and
upper 50s.
Overnight lows will be warmest Monday night with readings at
climatological norms near 40 degrees. Then, generally clear skies
and light nighttime winds will permit mins to drop to the low and
middle 30s for the remainder of the forecast, once again moderating
at the tail end of the forecast period.
As high pressure dominates the forecast, it remains dry with the
possible exception of Friday/Saturday. During this time the surface
high will move east of the region and return flow at the surface
will interact with an upper low tracking east from the mid section
of the country. This solution will eventually win out, but the past
few days has seen this pattern pushed off into the future a little
more with each successive model run. With this in mind, there is a
lot of uncertainty in timing of the next real threat of rain to the
region, and how the particular low pressure systems brining this
rain threat will evolve.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered/broken high based cumulus has formed downstream of a
potent cold front and shortwave trough which will sweep across
the terminals later this afternoon and evening. Expect best
chance of rain showers accompanying this feature at the central
Ohio /LCK and CMH/ terminals where prevailing showers have been
continued, with even a little snow shower in the TAF as
precipitation ends later this evening. Went conservative on
visibilities in said snow shower, but would not be surprised to
see a brief MVFR reduction in visibility as these shift through
central Ohio after dark. Elsewhere, went with VCSH for a few
hours along/immediately behind the front at ILN/DAY, and decided
to remove precipitation from CVG/LUK TAFs based on latest
trends. Think ceilings will mostly be VFR surrounding this event
owing to anemic boundary layer moisture, but after the front
roars through and in the strongest cold advection, there may be
a few hours of MVFR cigs. The primary story is the winds, which
are already gusting to 30kts as of 18Z at a few locations, and
these will hold steady in the 30-35kt range for a few more
hours. Later this afternoon as the front roars through, gusts to
or in excess of 40kts are possible, if not likely at all TAF
sites. Cannot even rule out a gust approaching 50kts,
particularly at DAY/CMH/LCK early this evening when strongest
pressure rise couplet moves through and low level lapse rates
are most supportive of momentum transfer. Think this will be
very isolated if it occurs, and the early onset of darkness
should help stabilize things just a bit. Otherwise, the only
concern later in the evening and overnight will be plume of
lake-effect clouds streaming off Lake Michigan in the cold
advection. These will be narrow in space but may impact
CVG/LUK/DAY/ILN for a time, though confidence is extremely low
on where the fine band of lower /MVFR/ clouds sets up. Expect
decreasing winds through the night after midnight. On Sunday,
flow becomes light as high pressure builds in, backing to
westerly and southwesterly as the day wears on.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ077>079-081-
088.
KY...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ089>099.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for INZ073>075-080.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Binau
NEAR TERM...Binau
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...BinauHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 KYZ100-OHZ081-088-211945- Lewis-Adams-Scioto- 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky and South Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Freeze Warning. Winds this evening will be out of the northwest with gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Freeze Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ082-211945- Pike- 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Winds this evening will be out of the northwest with gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible. Temperatures will drop to around freezing tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 080-211945- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Highland- 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ077>079-211945- Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton- Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown- 341 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Freeze Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Freeze Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 209 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 KYZ100-OHZ081-082-088-210200- Lewis-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Vanceburg, Tollesboro, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 209 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING... Wind gusts out of the northwest up to 40 or 45 mph are possible between 6 PM and midnight in the lower Scioto Valley of south-central Ohio, as well as adjacent areas of northeast Kentucky. These winds may cause minor tree damage and isolated power outages. Secure loose outdoor objects. Drivers of high- profile vehicles or trailers should exercise caution. Binau
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were blown down on several roads across the county.
The airport at Washington Court House measured a 46 mph gust of wind. A metal roof was torn from a garage in Jeffersonville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 785794, 785795.