Flood in Ohio, November 2 to 3, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
937 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast from the Ohio valley this
evening into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday morning. A trough
will remain over the area through Friday, before high pressure
builds east across the region Friday night into Saturday. High
pressure will move northeast to New England on Sunday before a
front moves into the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Removed mention of thunder for the 930 update. Currently low is
just SW of Columbus with the 3 hour height falls centered over
WRN NY state. Low will track across NE OH and NW PA, then move
NE of the forecast area after midnight. Heaviest rains will be
NW of the low. Looks like up to another inch is possible
overnight.

Original discussion...
Active near term period as low pressure moves northeast across
the area tonight. Solid area of rain is over the local area
right now, and will begin to transition to a more
showery/variable intensity rain this evening. As the low tracks
northeast into the area, a bit of instability will lift
northward into the area, and have expanded the slight chance
thunder mention north and west around and shortly after 00Z.
Hi-res guidance suggest a quasi-broken line of more intense
showers/t-storms quickly lifting northeast across the area
during this time frame. A bit of a dry slot will work northeast
through the area behind this line around/after 06Z, with some
lingering light rain across northwest Ohio associated with mid
level shortwave trough ejecting northeast through the Great
Lakes. This, in combination with a lingering surface trough
draped east/west along/south of the Lake Erie shoreline, with
continue rain shower chances across the area through much of the
day on Friday. Much drier air will move into the area Friday
night as surface high pressure approached the region, however
left some linger slight chance/low chance pops across the
eastern part of the forecast area Friday night as a deeper
southern CONUS trough ejects northeast through the Ohio valley.
Low temps will be in the low to upper 40s tonight, while highs
on Friday will struggle to reach 50 degrees. Lows tomorrow night
will be a bit cooler, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough will continue to move east out of the region
with upper level northwest flow for Saturday. A few lingering
showers will continue over northeast OH and northwest PA into as
late as Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below
normal on Saturday, with daytime high temperatures in the mid
to upper 40s, around 10 degrees below normal.

Brief upper level ridging will build over the area on Sunday with
dry weather and a significant warming trend. Temperatures on Sunday
will be between 5 and 10 degrees warmer than those on Saturday.

A broad upper trough will move slowly east toward Ohio late Sunday
into Monday, drawing up abundant moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico ahead of a warm front. Rain will begin to spread from
west to east Sunday evening into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Next storm system and its swath of rainfall will move into the
region Monday night and continue into Tuesday afternoon. The steady
rain will then shift east of the region with some wrap around and
lake effect showers anticipated into Wednesday night. High pressure
should gradually increase its influence on Thursday with any
lingering lake effect showers ending across NE Ohio and NW PA.

Tuesday looks to be the warm day ahead of a cold front with highs
around 60 degrees for most locations. Cooler Wednesday into Thursday
with highs dipping back into the 50s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Low pressure near CVG will track across extreme NE OH this
evening. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through
the overnight. Gusty NE flow will gradually turn to the NW and
diminish as low tracks to the NE.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continuing through Friday with scattered
showers. Areas of non-VFR lingering into Saturday NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ012>014-023-033-089.
     Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ009>011-019>022-
     028>032-036>038-047.
PA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...DJB/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Riley
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Riley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
517 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

OHZ009>011-019>022-028>032-036>038-047-020930-
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Crawford-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
517 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Increasing northeast winds on Lake Erie today will cause water levels
to rise, mainly on the western and central basin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012>014-023-033-089-PAZ001>003-020930-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
517 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-020930-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Wyandot-
517 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are forecast to fall through
Friday morning. Rises are expected on area rivers, streams, and
creeks. Strong northeast winds on Lake Erie this afternoon and
tonight will also lead to rising water levels on the western basin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-020930-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
517 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong northeast winds on Lake Erie this afternoon and tonight will
lead to rising water levels, especially on western and central Lake
Erie.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1021 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2018

OHZ029>031-037-038-047-020300-
Holmes-Richland-Ashland-Morrow-Wayne-Knox-
1021 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2018

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN RICHLAND...ASHLAND...
EASTERN MORROW...WESTERN WAYNE...WESTERN HOLMES AND KNOX COUNTIES...

At 1018 PM EDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Lexington to near Martinsburg. Movement was
northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Wooster, Ashland, Mount Vernon, Millersburg, Ontario,
Lexington, Loudonville, Fredericktown, Gambier, Creston, Utica,
Bellville, Centerburg, Shreve, Danville, Killbuck, Hayesville,
Holmesville and Glenmont.

Brief heavy rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
add to the ponding of water on area roadways. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8274 4028 8275
      4035 8275 4035 8277 4065 8278 4092 8227
      4099 8189 4045 8192 4045 8218 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 236DEG 48KT 4060 8264 4023 8253 3995 8260

Mullen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1120 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2018

OHZ011-013-020>022-031-032-020400-
Summit-Geauga-Portage-Stark-Medina-Cuyahoga-Wayne-
1120 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2018

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PORTAGE...GEAUGA...CUYAHOGA...
EASTERN MEDINA...STARK...SUMMIT AND EASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 1119 PM EDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near North Royalton to Massillon. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible with these showers.

Brief heavy rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
add to the ponding of water on area roadways. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Medina, Ravenna, Chardon, Parma, Cuyahoga
Falls, Cleveland Heights, Strongsville, Brunswick, Massillon, North
Royalton, Kent, Barberton, Green, Solon, Alliance, Hudson and
Wadsworth.

LAT...LON 4067 8165 4067 8168 4121 8187 4138 8183
      4157 8148 4157 8130 4162 8129 4164 8111
      4166 8110 4169 8101 4099 8103 4099 8109
      4073 8109 4072 8123 4065 8124 4066 8146
      4064 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 235DEG 53KT 4128 8176 4079 8154

Clark