A deep low pressure system lifted across the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest while an inverted surface trough passed over North Dakota. Widespread snow developed over the region, with the heaviest snow noted over the southern James River Valley.
Every event with a place to put it; 31 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A deep low pressure system lifted across the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest while an inverted surface trough passed over North Dakota. Widespread snow developed over the region, with the heaviest snow noted over the southern James River Valley. Over southwest North Dakota, strong winds developed in a tight pressure gradient which led to widespread blowing snow and blizzard conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 4, 11:38 PM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1138 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1138 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Previous discussion/updates to forecast continues on track for the rest of the overnight period. Expect a quick uptick in precipitation around/just after daybreak Monday as the latest water vapor imagery depicts a potent mid level circulation now over north central Nebraska, moving north with time. This shortwave is expected to interact with an inverted surface trough and tighten up an existing baroclinic zone which stretches into south central and into north central ND Monday morning and continue through the afternoon. Winter weather headlines on track at this time. UPDATE Issued at 942 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Again, no major changes this evening. We did adjust pops/qpf for the tonight period, mostly after midnight with much lower pops/qpf west. Latest NAM and RAP keep minimal ice aloft tonight and into tomorrow morning across most all of the forecast area. However, think latest satellite and radar imagery, with surface reports indicate there is enough ice in the far north to generate snow. We used a blend of the latest NAM/RAP for ProbIce present but manually bumped up the ice in the north where we are seeing snow. This kept mainly light rain or light freezing rain/drizzle tonight most areas with snow increasing/ fzra decreasing Monday morning. As for overall snow amounts, this changed very little as we did not adjust Monday pops and this is where most of the QPF occurs. UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Main update was to lower pops during the evening period over the southwest. We also lowered temperatures this evening central. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast. Updated text products will be sent shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 434 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Currently, the upper level and mid level low was over eastern Montana. The surface low over eastern Colorado/western Kansas and Nebraska, with an inverted trough extending northward into eastern South Dakota and arcing back into western North Dakota. Fog and drizzle continued in the southwest, but convection with rain, freezing rain, and snow with scattered thunder developed this afternoon in an arc from Beach/Medora across north central North Dakota, into Jamestown/Fargo area. Hail was reported at Stanley, with pea sized hail in Minot. The upper low moves southeast towards eastern South Dakota by Monday afternoon. Meanwhile the surface low lifts northward into eastern South Dakota and becomes stacked with the upper low by Monday afternoon. This stacked system then moves southeast into Iowa by Tuesday morning, continuing east into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Weather headlines for western and central ND have been adjusted as follows: Winter Storm Warning in currently in effect from Crosby/Williston/Beach/Dickinson to Bottineau/Minot/Garrison. A Winter Storm Warning for Mandan/Bismarck to Jamestown/Ashley to Rugby begins daybreak Monday morning. A Blizzard Warning begins daybreak Monday morning for the far southwest and far south central including Slope/Bowman/Adams/Hettinger/Grant/Sioux counties. Expected snowfall map has been sent to our web page and social media, but basically has 2 to 5 inches over the far southwest, to 8 to 12 inches over the rest of western and central ND. Some locally higher amounts up to 15 inches or so are possible across central North Dakota once the snow tapers off Tuesday afternoon. The strongest northwest winds are forecast to develop in the southwest, where gusts to 50 mph are expected daytime Monday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 434 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Mainly zonal flow aloft develops after the main storm system is off to our east in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes area. A minor shortwave in the flow may bring a slight chance of light snow Wednesday, then again Thursday, then another quick shortwave Friday night/Saturday. Expect highs in the 20s and 30s. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night zero to 15 above, with lows later this week in the teens. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 Ifr/lifr cigs and lifr/vlifr vsbys expected this taf period with fog, snow, and blowing snow from 12z Monday through 06z Tuesday. A mix of light freezing drizzle and snow will continue at KMOT until 12z Monday before transitioning to all snow thereafter. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001>004-009>011-017>019-021-031>033. Blizzard Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday to 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ040>045. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for NDZ005-012-013-020-022-023-025-034>037-046>048-050-051. && UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...JV AVIATION...KS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 956 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-060400- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells- Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder- Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan- La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 956 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018 /856 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow northwest and north central. Chance of rain or freezing rain southwest and south central. Various warnings and watches are in effect. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday The winter storm continues Monday and Tuesday. Widespread hazardous weather is not expected after the winter storm exits the area on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Your snowfall and liquid precipitation reports, and storm totals will be much appreciated during this upcoming multi-day storm.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
26 heavy snow, 9 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Locations north of Williston received 12 inches of snow.
Columbus received 11 inches of snow.
Locations north of Plaza received 12 inches of snow.
Watford City received nine inches of snow.
Northwestern Dunn County received an estimated nine inches of snow.
Southern Divide County received an estimated ten inches of snow.
Ellendale received 19 inches of snow.
Kulm received 15 inches of snow.
Ashley received 13 inches of snow.
Garrison received 13 inches of snow.
Locations northwest of Streeter received 12 inches of snow.
Hazelton received 12 inches of snow.
Locations east of Wilton received 12 inches of snow.
Locations west of Gackle received 11 inches of snow.
Lansford received 11 inches of snow.
Locations south of Minot received ten inches of snow.
Sherwood received nine inches of snow.
Locations north of Velva received nine inches of snow.
Harvey received eight inches of snow.
Locations northwest of Huff received eight inches of snow.
Locations northeast of Nanson received eight inches of snow.
Southwestern Foster County received an estimated nine inches of snow.
Southern Pierce County received an estimated eight inches of snow.
Northeastern Sheridan County received an estimated eight inches of snow.
Northern Mercer County received an estimated ten inches of snow.
Northern Oliver County received an estimated ten inches of snow.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
Ongoing snow and strong northwest winds combined to produce a blizzard.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, March 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 743886, 743890, 743891, 743897, 744719, 744720, 743865, 743866, 743867, 743868, 743869, 743885, 743889, 743893, 743894, 743895, 743896, 743898, 743899, 743901, 743902, 744716, 744717, 744718, 744721, 744722, 744726, 744727, 744728, 744729, 744730, 744731, 744733, 744732, 744734.