A line of severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds moved into far northwest North Dakota from Montana, and pushed easterly across Divide and Burke counties. The thunderstorms then weakened as they continued to push east.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A line of severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds moved into far northwest North Dakota from Montana, and pushed easterly across Divide and Burke counties. The thunderstorms then weakened as they continued to push east. The strongest winds were estimated to be 85 mph at Fortuna in Divide County, where the local grain elevator was damaged.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 7:56 PM CST, 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 856 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Severe thunderstorm watch issued by Storm Prediction Center includes 11 counties in northwest and north central North Dakota...including Crosby, Williston, Watford City...east to Bottineau/Minot/Rugby. Increased chances of thunderstorms tonight, keeping the best chances across the northwest and north central. The northern portion of the line of Montana storms have maintained themselves both in strength and in a more continuous line...and continuing to push east towards the northwestern border of North Dakota. The storms in the southern portion of the Montana line have become more isolated and not as strong. The HRRR high res model keeps the line of storms more or less intact as it moves east across North Dakota, while the Experimental HRRR keeps only the northern portion intact as it progresses eastward across northern North Dakota. Thus have highest chances of thunderstorms across the north (where the severe thunderstorm watch is in effect) and lower chances across southwest and south central ND. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Some rather weak convection with mostly showers but some thundershowers developed this afternoon across northwest ND, and have moved east into north central ND. Expect this isolated convection to continue east. Attention turns to our north in Saskatchewan, where this convection appears linked to the north central ND convection, likely associated with upper level impulses riding the h500 ridge - the Canadian convection a bit stronger as the mid-level thermal capping is stronger across North Dakota. This convection should also continue eastward/northeastward. Main attention is focused over southwestern Saskatchewan and central Montana, where a line of strong to severe storms had developed during the mid-afternoon hours. These storms are associated with a set of upper level impulses out ahead of an upper level low pressure system moving east across Alberta into Saskatchewan tonight. Models show the stronger impulses lifting northeast into Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight, clipping northwest into north central North Dakota. Latest iterations of short term high res models would suggest this line of storms arriving at the western border of ND around 9 pm CDT/8 pm MDT. Some of these models show some convection perhaps holding together farther south (going into southwestern ND as well) while others maintain a more northern boundary to the convection in northwestern ND. Later updates should address these trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Severe thunderstorm potential northwest North Dakota headlines the short term highlight. Latest water vapor imagery indicates shows our next 500mb/700mb shortwave trough now located over the chimney stack of Idaho. Associated surface cold front stretching from western Montana south into eastern Idaho. Both features will propagate east this afternoon and evening, reaching western North Dakota by around sunset, and continuing to move across central ND overnight/through early Wednesday morning. Height falls indicated per model data and SPC mesoanalysis are underway across the west, and will fall more noticeably this evening. Latest Convective Allowing Models fairly consistent with a line of severe thunderstorms stretching from western Saskatchewan into Divide and portions of northern Divide counties by around 03z-04z/10PM-11PM CDT Tuesday. They will continue to sweep east into Burke and along the northern border through 08z, weakening as they move farther east. There could be isolated showers/thunderstorms along the front farther to the south, but overall, much weaker instability and shear should inhibit any threat of widespread severe weather. The cold front will be through the James River Valley by 18z-00z Wednesday. Lingering showers and some thunderstorms through south central North Dakota in the morning, then drier air/less humid air will sweep from west to east in the afternoon. Dewpoints will be in the 50s west and central, with lower 70s lingering across the southern James River Valley. A marginal risk for severe weather continues across the southern James River Valley Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Weak cyclonic flow transitions to broad anticyclonic Thursday through Saturday afternoon with mainly a dry forecast. The one exception would be Wednesday night across far southern North Dakota where some shower activity from South Dakota may shift into our far southern counties. Other than that, the next potential severe weather threat looks to come Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as a strong cold front sweeps from northwest to southeast associated with a southern Canadian upper low. Behind it Sunday and through Tuesday, expect much cooler and drier air with highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Threat for thunderstorms highest at KISN/KMOT from 03z through 08z Wednesday. Still some uncertainty if the TAF sites will have a direct impact at this time, but have introduced a tempo group at KISN since storms forecast to reach there around 03z. For now, will maintain a VCTS at KMOT. If something does develop, wind gusts to 65kt and hail to one inch diameter would be the main threats. Rest of the terminals should have a minimal threat at best and will keep any mention of precipitation out of the forecast for now. Vfr cigs/vsbys for now. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...JV
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 917 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 NDZ001>005-009>013-017-120230- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie- 917 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 /817 PM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota and northwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms moving east across northwest and north central North Dakota late this evening and tonight...some possibly severe with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Chances for thunderstorms return Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tonight. NDZ018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120230- Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley- Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger- Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 917 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 /817 PM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. Severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Chances for thunderstorms return Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed tonight. JV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
926 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 AM TORNADO 1 SSW WATFORD CITY 47.78N 103.29W
07/10/2018 MCKENZIE ND NWS STORM SURVEY
*** 1 FATAL, 28 INJ ***
TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR AND EYE
WITNESS REPORTS. EXTENSIVE AND SEVERE DAMAGE
AT AN RV / TRAILER PARK ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF WATFORD CITY. NWS DAMAGE SURVEY
CONFIRMS EF2 TORNADO AND BASED ON THAT
ESTIMATES WIND SPEEDS AROUND 127 MPH. MANY
SINGLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOMES AND RVS
DESTROYED. POWER POLES SNAPPED. STORAGE
BUILDINGS AND VEHICLES DESTROYED.
WEATHER.GOV/BIS HAS MORE DETAILS. INJURIES
AND FATALITY BASED ON NEWS REPORTS.
&&
JP MARTINThe Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 222 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:44 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The top of the local grain elevator main annex where the leg was located was blown off, damaging additional parts of the elevator.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 767254, 767264, 767265.