A weak wedge front extended through the Piedmont, with stratus lasting through the day in the northwest Piedmont. Convection formed along the wedge front, coincident with a weak surface low over the Upstate of South Carolina.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A weak wedge front extended through the Piedmont, with stratus lasting through the day in the northwest Piedmont. Convection formed along the wedge front, coincident with a weak surface low over the Upstate of South Carolina. This then congealed into a curved band of convection which tracked northeastward into southwestern and western central North Carolina. A few of these storms became severe and produced wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 10, 2:30 PM EST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will waver over the Piedmont of NC through Tuesday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Florence will track west northwest across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas and Bermuda through Wednesday, then approach the Southeast U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday... Focus for scattered convection will remain along a weakening sfc boundary draped west southwest-east northeast across our far southern counties. Strong heating has lead to moderate instability across this region, supplying an atmosphere primed for convective development. While support aloft is rather meager across the Coastal Plain, the approach of the inland moving seabreeze should kick off convection after 20Z-21Z, lasting through 00Z. Farther west, encompassing the southern and western Piedmont, a weak mid level trough/shear axis will provide additional lift to initiate and sustain clusters of showers and storms. While storm movement will be steadily to the northeast, training of cells could lead to locally heavy/excessive rainfall. Will continue to highlight isolated threat for flash flooding through the late evening hours. After midnight, areas if low clouds and fog will materialize, primarily across the northern Piedmont and possibly the northern Coastal Plain. Overnight temperatures generally near 70-lower 70s. && SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... Tuesday through Wednesday will basically be a persistent forecast as a moist unstable air mass will remain in place. This atmosphere will give rise to scattered convection during the afternoon and evening hours. The convection may be more prominent/numerous across the western counties which will be in closer proximity to a weakening mid level trough/shear axis. Similar to this afternoon/evening, mean flow will be unidirectional Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to showers/storms training across the same locations. This may result in pockets of flash flooding, primarily over urbanized areas. Afternoon temperatures will vary from the mid-upper 80s across the NW (where low clouds will linger the longest), to near 90-lower 90s across the southeast half. Overnight temperatures generally near 70 to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 255 PM Monday... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: As of Monday afternoon, Hurricane Florence has strengthened to a category 4 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. There remains significant spread in the model solutions, making it difficult and too early to tell where the most significant impacts within the state will occur. With the National Hurricane Center anticipating a Thursday landfall the average track error this far out is between 100-150 nautical miles, and so there are many details yet to be ironed out. There is however increasing confidence that North Carolina will suffer significant impacts from Hurricane Florence and preparations should be completed as soon as possible. For residents of central NC, sustained tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane force will be possible. This will likely cause a significant number of power outages and downed trees across the area. The greatest risk to residents of central NC will be with inland flooding. As the storm makes landfall it is expected to slow down, thus increasing the time Florence remains over the state. This will enhance the flooding threat and those who already know they live in a flood prone area need to take appropriate action to make sure they have a safe place to go during the storm. Now is the time to have a plan in place and ready to go and to have your hurricane kits fully stocked. Residents need to be prepared for potentially long periods of time without power or water. Stay tuned to the forecast and to messaging coming from NC Emergency Management for the latest information. You can visit the NWS Raleigh Tropical page at http://www.weather.gov/rah/tropical for information from the National Hurricane Center as well as local statements and forecasts. -Ellis SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: This stage of the forecast remains very uncertain, as all of the forecast is reliant on the eventual track, intensity, and survivability of Florence once it makes landfall. In general, models tend to be in agreement with a rapidly decaying yet nearly stationary tropical system overhead by the weekend. This slow progression will likely keep gusty winds and heavy tropical downpours active across much of central NC, with potentially several inches of additional precipitation possible each day. Pinpointing the areas likely to be hardest hit remains very difficult due to the wide array of model spread that still exists, so please continue to monitor for future developments in the forecast. - JJM && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Monday... Lingering low stratus over portions of the Piedmont, with IFR/low end MVFR ceilings, will lift into a scattered broken cu field by 21z with bases 3500-5000ft. Scattered convection will develop over portions of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont through 21Z. The threat for scattered convection will increase across the remainder of central NC after 21Z, persisting until 02Z. In vicinity of the heavier showers and storms, anticipate IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings, and wind gusts 25-30kts. After 06Z, areas of low stratus and fog will redevelop across the northern half of central NC, leading to IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. The adverse aviation conditions will likely linger through most of Tuesday morning. Comparable conditions expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Thursday, the extremely adverse affects of Hurricane Florence may begin to impact the eastern sections of central NC by Thursday morning, and the entire region by late Thursday, persisting into Friday. Aviation conditions are expected to slowly improve expected by Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...Ellis/JJM AVIATION...WSS
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1015 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 NCZ007-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>086-110930- Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph- Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke- 1015 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms with torrential downpours will track slowly northward across the western and southern Piedmont this afternoon and this evening. These slow moving thunderstorms will be capable of dumping between one and two inches of rain in less than two hours. Rainfall of this intensity may result in brief flash flooding of creeks, streams, and low lying areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hurricane Florence is forecast to be a very powerful, major hurricane on its approach to the coast of the Southeast U.S. late Wednesday through early Friday. The associated risk of life- threatening impacts well inland into central North Carolina, including damaging wind, tornadoes, and prolonged, extremely heavy rainfall, is increasing. Residents of central North Carolina are strongly encouraged to take time now to put together emergency kits and an emergency plan of how best to protect family and pets. Continue to closely monitor the progress and latest forecasts of Hurricane Florence. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed Thursday and Friday. NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-110930- Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston- Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson- 1015 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hurricane Florence is forecast to be a very powerful, major hurricane on its approach to the coast of the Southeast U.S. Wednesday and Thursday. The associated risk of life-threatening impacts well inland into central North Carolina, including damaging wind, tornadoes, and prolonged, extremely heavy rainfall, is increasing. Residents of central North Carolina are strongly encouraged to take time now to put together emergency kits and an emergency plan of how best to protect family and pets. Continue to closely monitor the progress and latest forecasts of Hurricane Florence. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed Thursday and Friday.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
329 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2018
NCZ083-102015-
Anson NC-
329 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ANSON COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sturdivants, or 13 miles southwest of Wadesboro, moving northeast at
10 mph.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Wadesboro, Polkton, Morven, Peachland and White Store.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3515 8028 3521 8026 3516 8023 3516 8020
3486 7990 3484 7991 3481 8003 3482 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 243DEG 11KT 3485 8027
WSSThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 156 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:17 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
One tree was reported down on power lines near the intersection of Pleasant Grove Church Road and Dennis Road.
One tree was reported down on Grassy Island Road.
One tree was reported down in the 1800 block of Hicks Road.
One tree was reported down on Pine Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 800245, 800246, 800247, 800248.