A strong low pressure system lifted northeastward into central North Carolina ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. There was fairly substantial lift over the region thanks to a strengthening low level jet and increasing diffluence aloft supplied by a 140 to 150 knot jet streaking northeastward across the OH Valley.
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The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A strong low pressure system lifted northeastward into central North Carolina ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. There was fairly substantial lift over the region thanks to a strengthening low level jet and increasing diffluence aloft supplied by a 140 to 150 knot jet streaking northeastward across the OH Valley. All that combined with precipatable water values in the 1.5 -1.7 inch range set the stage for flash flooding across portions of central North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 12, 8:55 PM EST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 855 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure system will move southwest to northeast through the Southeast U.S. tonight through Tuesday, followed by passage of a strong cold front Tuesday night. Cold high pressure will return Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will approach central NC from the southwest Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 850 PM Monday... ...Minor flooding expected in the urban areas, along with small streams and creeks in the Triad and Triangle areas through the overnight... Rainfall has been a widespread soaking today into this evening. Most areas have now seen 1 to 2 inches as of 800 PM, with the heaviest totals in the Piedmont. Greensboro reported 1.80 through 800 PM, Raleigh 1.75, and Burlington 1.72. Stream gauges in the Greensboro area have been rising especially around Buffalo Creek, Horsepin Creek, and Ryan Creek were nearing flood stage. Urban and small stream flooding is already occurring there. Same deal with Chapel Hill with some streams reported near bankfull already. Rivers are also now rising with the Haw River at Haw River and at Bynum expected to reach minor flooding later tonight. These are areas that typically flood in a flood plain and are near streams and creeks in urban areas. The flash flood guidance has been lowering and was now in the 1.5 to 2 inch range in 6 hours. Radar and satellite data indicate plenty of rain to come, with several waves noted in the flow from Augusta GA to Columbia SC to near Greensboro. These waves will continue aid in the dynamic lift within the low to mid level SSW jet a top our ongoing CAD event. We are lucky that the instability is NIL due to the cool stable pool over all of our region, even in the SE Coastal Plain. With the coastal front likely stalling very near the coast or possibly just inland, the very heavy rain with convection is not expected in our region, except for a possible brief elevated storm or two around Fayetteville and Goldsboro may enhance hourly rates later tonight. Widespread flash flooding is not expected at this time due to the stratiform rain event - up to 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch per hour in the heavier frontal bands. With additional rains of 1 to locally 2 inches still to fall, there will still be lots of runoff, just not as it would be in convective rains in excess of an inch or more per hour. Models are also suggesting the rainfall will be heaviest through 400 am in the NW before the banding of heavier rains shift more east of the Triad into central and eastern parts of NC through 700 or 800 am. With the CAD in place, lows will remain nearly steady in the upper 30s and 40s in the Piedmont. Temperatures in the Coastal Plain should rise into the 50s to near 60 as the coastal front nears. Temperatures will fall again on Tuesday in the SE as the front gets pushes back offshore as the low pressure passes by. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday... Anomalously high PWs will hold over our area early Tue, before being shunted to the SE and S late Tue into Tue night. The southern portion of the mid level trough will close off over NE TX while the northern portion remains progressive over SE Canada. While the mid level flow will veer slightly in response, we'll still keep a steady stream of mid and high level moisture over the state. In the low levels, both the low level jet and the surface low that forms along the E NC front will both track quickly up the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast early Tue, allowing the front to ease eastward during the day. The surface high attempting to build in from the W will be initially hindered by the higher terrain, such that we'll be left with abundant low level moisture and weak low level flow that will serve to keep clouds locked in for much of the day. While forcing for ascent won't be as strong or deep as today, the presence of the upper jet from OH NE through the Maritimes will keep at least weak upper divergence over our area, necessitating a continuation of high pops Tue, trending down NW to SE Tue night as the front settles just to our SE. Expect chilly highs from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Lows from the mid 30s to lower 40s with partial clearing possible in the far NW late. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 PM Monday... Wednesday we will get a little break from the heavy precipitation as a surface high pressure moves across the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic states. Most of the area should remain dry, especially north of US-64 but the GFS never does clear out precipitation across the southern areas. That being said both the NAM and ECMWF do in fact clear the state so will only carry slight chance across the south. Cold air advection around the front of the high will bring northerly flow and high temperatures only topping out in the mid 40s. By Thursday morning both the GFS and the ECMWF bring the surface high into northern New England and introduce precipitation across central during the early morning hours. With the high not able to filter enough cold air in from the north in time, temperatures in the Triad and the VA border counties should stay slightly above freezing and keep precipitation all liquid with the exception of a few inconsequential sleet pellets. One thing to keep an eye on however is that the NAM becomes a bit of an outlier by Thursday morning in a key way as it is further south with the surface high across the mid-Atlantic which keeps precipitation out of the area till after 12z Thursday but as a consequence, filter colder air into the Triad and NW Piedmont. Looking at forecast soundings, this would present an opportunity for a couple hours of freezing rain in the Triad. With antecedent temperatures well above freezing, it is likely that even in this scenario, any ice accrual would be very minimal but it is worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of model cycles to see if it falls more in line with the GFS and the ECMWF. For the forecast, have kept temperatures slightly above freezing and all precipitation liquid at this time. Rain will continue through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night before clearing out before 12z on Friday. Rainfall amounts looks to be slightly lower than the early week system and so have a storm total QPF of between 1.5 and 2 inches at this time which should put us somewhere between 4-5 inches for the week. Will need to keep an eye on how much rain we get in our river basins to identify any potential for river flooding later in the weekend as water works its way downstream. Low temps should be in the mid 30s but if the precipitation clears out quicker, the Triad could drop into the lower 30s. Clearing will commence on Friday with high pressure moving into the area which will remain in place through the weekend. Highs in the 50s with lows in the mid 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 740 PM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Poor/adverse aviation conditions are expected to continue over central NC over the 24 hour TAF period, as a strong storm system continues to moves SW to NE through the region tonight, bringing a large shield of rain and associated IFR/LIFR conditions. Low level wind shear will also be possible between 00Z-08Z tonight, particularly at FAY/RWI where light winds at the surface will strengthen to 35-45 kts from the SE at 1500-2000 ft AGL. Marginal LLWS will be possible as far west as KRDU. Continued poor aviation conditions will lingering into Tuesday afternoon, with cigs possibly lifting to low end MVFR by late in the TAF period with periods of drizzle and light rain still possible. Outlook: High pressure is expected to build into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a brief period VFR conditions expected on Wednesday. Another low pressure system is expected to move in from the SSW and brings a return to IFR/LIFR conditions and high rain chances Wed night, lasting through Thu night. VFR conditions will follow on Fri/Sat as high pressure builds in from the SW. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Raleigh NC 349 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-131000- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 349 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue over central North Carolina through tonight, particularly over the Piedmont. This rainfall could lead to extensive ponding of water on roads and some flooding of creeks, drainage ditches, and underpasses. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Another round of moderate to heavy rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. This additional rainfall may lead to some minor flooding of rain-swollen creeks. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:11 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain resulted in flash flooding throughout the city of Chapel Hill. Multiple roads were flooded, including Umstead Road, Estes Drive, Cleland Road and Old Mason Farm Road.
Heavy rain resulted in flash flooding in the city of Greensboro. The intersection of Yanceyville Street and E. Cornwallis Drive was flooded, as was Eckerson Road at Private Drive.
Heavy rainfall resulted in flash flooding along the New Light Creek in northern Wake County. Water from the New Light Creek was flowing over bridge on Mangum Dairy Road, making the road impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, November 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 794738, 794739, 794740.