Hail in North Carolina, May 7, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT Mon May 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves off the Carolina coast early tonight.
Expect mountain showers and thunderstorm chances to continue Tuesday
and Wednesday on the upslope side of weak high pressure which will
keep temperatures near normal through mid-week.  Greater precip
chances arrive for Thursday with an approaching front and scattered
diurnal showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend
as temperatures warm to well-above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday: Synoptic scale guidance keeps the bulk of
the convection this afternoon and evening across the mountains while
the CAM guidance shows a secondary max developing across the NC
foothills moving into the NC piedmont and eastern Upstate during the
early evening. Have kept the highest PoP across the mountains where
there is good agreement, but did allow chance PoP to spread across
the NC foothills to the western Piedmont but just short of most of
the CLT metro area. Slight chance PoP spreads across most of the
rest of the forecast area before retreating to the mountains and
upslope Blue Ridge areas overnight. CAPE values currently remain
weak but are approaching moderate levels across the mountains. DCAPE
values remain weak with low bulk shear values. The low freezing and
wet bulb zero levels still keep an isolated severe storm in play,
but overall chance is low. Slow moving or training cells are a
possibility, but chance of excessive rainfall is also low.

As mentioned above, precip chances will retreat to the mountains and
upslope areas of the Blue Ridge overnight. This follows the passage
of a weak back door cold front and high pressure building in from
the northeast behind the front. A moist easterly low level flow
develops as the high moves in and low level moisture lingers across
the area. There will be an increase in low clouds across those areas
as well which may spread east and south through daybreak before
lifting and scattering during the day. Precip chances will continue
to favor the mountains and Blue Ridge during the day as low level
moisture and upslope flow remain in place and drier air and a weak
subsidence inversion develops outside of the mountains. Lows tonight
will be near normal mountains and around 5 degrees above normal
elsewhere. Highs Tuesday will be near to a couple of degrees below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday: A shortwave ridge will ripple across the
area on Wednesday, with a following trough right behind it for
Thursday. The forecast area looks fairly stable with just 200-300
J/kg of SBCAPE across the high terrain on Wednesday. Despite this,
guidance still has slight CHC to low-end CHC PoPs, and this may be
overdone. Highs will be slightly above normal.

A cold front associated with the upper trough will approach the area
from the NW on Thursday and should provide some moisture and forcing
for better coverage of convection in the aftn. Models generally
agree on SBCAPE reaching 800-1200 J/kg in the mountains with lower
amounts in the foothills and piedmont. Bulk shear still looks
unimpressive (generally 20-30 kts in the 0-6 km layer). So severe
potential doesn't look that great. But cannot rule out a few
marginally severe storms. Temps will continue their warming trend,
with highs in the mid-UPR 80s across the piedmont and some LWR 80s
in the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Monday: Per latest guidance, continue to anticipate an
unsettled weather pattern through the medium range forecast period,
which begins Thursday night.

As an upper trough continues to spin and push eastward north of the
Great Lakes and New England Thursday night into Friday, sfc trough
is expected to push through the Carolinas overnight, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms becoming isolated in nature. As the
subtropical ridge builds in across the Southeast Friday and through
into the weekend, a few impulses are progged to move within the
residual weak upper trough. At the same time, a gulf system across
the FL panhandle is expected to become somewhat organized (the GFS
depicting a closed 500 mb low - the ECWMF not as defined) and slowly
move northward into the Carolinas this weekend. While the overall
better forcing will stay well north of the FA as a frontal boundary
is expected to remain draped across the OH Valley, the
aforementioned sources of energy will allow for weak upper forcing
across the area. This along with available low level moisture and
daytime heating, anticipate diurnal isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms through into Monday, with another system progged
to move out of the Rockies into the Plains, bringing a cold front to
the Southeast just past the forecast period.

Expect temperatures to remain well above normal with high
temperatures anticipated to soar into the upper 80s/around 90
degrees south of the I-85 corridor each day. Saturday will be the
closest day to any high temperature records (CLT - 95 degrees set in
1916), but even then, anticipate that overall max temperatures will
fall just short of any records. Overnight lows will remain in the
60s across the Upstate and NW Piedmont, cooler across the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection developing across the higher
terrain will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Have
VCTS at KAVL and KHKY where chance is highest. Cannot rule out a
cell nearby the other TAF sites, but chance too low to include for
now. Elsewhere, generally sct low VFR and bkn mid or high cloud
through the afternoon. Low level moisture and upslope flow will
create low VFR to MVFR cigs overnight. May be some showers around,
but chance too low for TAF mention. KCLT has the least chance of
either, so sct low VFR remains in place. The low cigs will lift or
scatter out through the morning with low VFR cigs likely lingering
at KAVL. Generally NE wind this afternoon continues overnight but
weakens, then picks back up with mixing Tuesday morning.

Outlook: The secondary front will settling just south of the
area on Tuesday. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will
persist over the area thru mid-week with some temporary restrictions
possible each day.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
327 PM EDT Mon May 7 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
327 PM EDT Mon May 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop into this
evening across the region, mainly over the mountains, but with some
expansion east of the Blue Ridge in the early evening. Cloud-to-
ground lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours will be the
main threats. One or two storms might become strong enough to produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts. The storms should weaken late
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
630 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

NCZ033-501-503-072300-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Avery NC-
630 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Newland, or near Linville Falls, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather, Crossnore, Linville
Falls, Edgemont, Pineola, Jonas Ridge and Linville.

Half inch hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 8169 3587 8191 3591 8191 3593 8193
      3595 8193 3596 8194 3601 8195 3607 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 327DEG 8KT 3597 8189

SGL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
654 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

NCZ053-072330-
Buncombe NC-
654 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Downtown Asheville, or near B.R. Parkway-Nc
Arboretum To East Asheville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Arden, Fairview In Buncombe County, Biltmore Forest, Asheville
Airport, Skyland, B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East Asheville, East
Asheville, Avery Creek and Gerton.

Dime size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8234 3548 8237 3547 8237 3547 8242
      3545 8247 3545 8253 3544 8254 3543 8253
      3542 8255 3544 8255 3544 8256 3555 8259
      3559 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 332DEG 11KT 3552 8249

SGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
714 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             3 E ASHEVILLE           35.58N 82.50W
05/07/2018  E0.50 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            OBSERVED OFF TUNNEL RD IN EAST ASHEVILLE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
715 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

NCZ505-506-072345-
McDowell Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
715 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 715 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marion, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Lake James, Nebo and Glenwood.

Dime size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8205 3579 8198 3569 8186 3561 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 327DEG 12KT 3573 8198

SGL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
732 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

NCZ033-503-505-080000-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Avery NC-
732 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Spruce Pine, or near Linville Falls. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Linville Falls, Ashford and Ingalls.

Dime size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 8186 3584 8195 3589 8198 3591 8198
      3593 8202 3595 8203 3599 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 310DEG 4KT 3595 8198

SGL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

NCZ053-505>507-080015-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
738 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 738 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles southwest of
Marion to 15 miles east of Downtown Asheville, and moving southeast
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Old Fort, Sugar Hill and Fero.

Dime size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 8198 3548 8229 3558 8232 3568 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 312DEG 10KT 3564 8208 3556 8228

SGL