Hail in North Carolina, May 11, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
504 PM EDT Fri May 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon mainly mountain thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. As a ridge of high pressure builds over the area Sunday and
Monday, temperatures will increase to near record levels.
Precipitation chances increase Tuesday and remain elevated through
late next week as a complex low pressure system impacts the area,
but temperatures will return to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 500 PM: Minor adjustments made to temperatures to
coincide with latest trends as the rest of the near term
forecast remains on track.

Latest radar imagery depicts scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving across the NC mountains into the northern foothills,
though one or two weakening storms have managed to move into
portions of the Upstate within the past hour. Do anticipate this
activity will continue through into the early evening,
potentially reaching the CLT Metro area over the next few hours.

Otherwise, water vapor satellite imagery and the latest RAP 500 mb
height field show a general ridge overhead but with a weakness in
the ridge pattern moving into the southern Appalachians late this
afternoon. Any DPVA forcing with this feature appears quite weak.
The latest HRRR still features scattered convective development in
the heart of the forecast area, generally developing from Brevard to
Hendersonville, which then moves east across the foothills and
possibly the piedmont before dissipating early this evening. This is
in line with KGSP radar trends which already have isolated to
scattered convection developing and moving off the eastern
escarpment of the southern/central mountains. LAPS shows fairly
robust sbCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 in the far western Upstate, but
triggering is expected to be a bit more lacking there. The best
potential for isolated severe hail and wind will likely be in the
immediate lee of the central mountains - similar to the area hardest
hit on Thursday afternoon. Convection will dissipate quickly mid to
late evening, and little more than lingering debris clouds, with
southwest mountain valley fog, are expected during a mild overnight
period.

The H5 ridge will build more in earnest over the southeast on
Saturday. The resulting warmer mid-level temperatures should inhibit
convective coverage a bit more on Saturday afternoon, with mainly
just isolated to scattered coverage in the usual initiation areas
around the Pisgah Forest region. Wind profiles will remain rather
light and southwesterly through the near-term, with little to no
potential for storms to organize. Max temperatures should be solidly
in the lower 90s east of the mountains, with plenty of mid to upper
80s in the lower mountain valleys, but with maxes just a touch below
records in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM Fri: A subtropical ridge over our area gets the squeeze
play from the Westerlies to our north and a developing upper low to
the south. Surface high pressure remains in place through the period
but with a weakening trend. The near record heat for Sunday drops a
couple of degrees on Monday as thicknesses fall with the weakening
ridge. Dew points are on the dry side Sunday keeping heat index
values below the temps. However, dew points will be on the increase
Monday bringing heat index values a few degrees above the temps.
Still well below head advisory levels though. CAPE values will peak
out above 1000 J/kg Sunday, but the very warm mid levels will keep a
cap in place for all but the mountains. Even there, only isolated
convection over the higher peaks is expected.

With the increase in dew points on Monday, CAPE values increase
significantly, above 2000 J/kg across much of the region. The mid
level temps remain warm but slowly diminish during the day with the
weakening ridge. This erodes the cap across the mountains but leaves
it in place elsewhere until very late in the day. With the cap and
relatively high LFC levels, don't expect more than isolated coverage
outside of the mountains. Scattered coverage should develop across
the mountains where the better instability can be realized. Shear
remains in the weak side, but increasing surface delta theta-e
values could lead to isolated damaging wind gusts, mainly across the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Fri: Upper ridge fully erodes Tuesday as the area comes
under the influence of the developing closed low moving north across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This low slowly moves north to the
Alabama/Georgia border on Wednesday and into the TN valley Thursday.
The surface ridge holds on a little longer, not fully eroding until
Thursday. However, the southerly low level flow increases through the
period keeping deep moisture in place. The GEFS mean PW values
increase to 2 standard deviations above normal for late Tuesday into
Thursday. Mean CAPE values show instability remain in place each day
as well. Therefore, have continued the likely PoP across most of the
area each day. Severe chances look minimal, but heavy rain could
become a problem, especially with the potentially prolonged nature
of this event. Highs fall to just a few degrees above normal with
lows around 10 degrees above normal.

The upper low weakens and moves out of the area Friday but
southwesterly flow remains as another upper low approaches from the
west. This deep southwesterly flow keeps a moist and unstable air
mass in place. Expect likely convective coverage across the
mountains and a good chance elsewhere. Again, severe chances will be
minimal but heavy rain potential continues. Highs remain a few
degrees above normal with lows around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Expect convective coverage to be less than
observed on Thursday afternoon as mid/upper level forcing is weaker
and profiles are warming aloft. That said, TEMPO for TSRA seems
reasonable from KAVL out along a southern foothills/piedmont track
to KCLT through 00Z. Will feature VCTS at the foothill sites, except
for keeping KAND dry with any convection likely staying closer to
the NC/SC border. Expect VFR conditions throughout, except under any
thunderstorms and also in fog/low stratus in the southwest mountain
valleys overnight. Winds will be generally light from the southwest
through the period, except mainly NW at KAVL.

Outlook: A summer-like regime will continue into early next week,
with isolated to scattered diurnal convection expected most days.
Any restrictions should be confined to areas under showers/
thunderstorms or early day fog/stratus in the lower mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 05-12

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1980     44 1960     65 1918     36 1969
                1956
                1914
   KCLT      94 1889     56 1960     69 1896     39 1969
   KGSP      99 1916     56 1960     68 1979     38 1989
                                        1933

RECORDS FOR 05-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1933     54 1917     67 1890     31 1895
   KCLT      93 1881     59 1891     73 1881     38 1960
   KGSP      95 1886     62 1972     71 1933     37 1917
                            1954
                            1938

RECORDS FOR 05-14

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1956     52 1954     63 1962     30 1895
                1896                    1908
   KCLT      95 1956     53 1954     73 1881     41 2013
                                                    1917
   KGSP      95 1886     52 1954     71 1933     41 2013
                                                    1960
                                                    1917

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HG/SGL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...GSP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-501>510-SCZ001>010-121100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-
651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast today, with
the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening. Cloud to
ground lightning is possible with any of the storms. However, a few
of the storms will be capable of severe weather in the form of
damaging winds and hail as large as 1 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-121100-
Elbert-Union-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the lower Piedmont of the
Carolinas and northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NCZ065-507>510-111915-
Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Hendersonville, or 4 miles north of Saluda, moving east
at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Tryon, Saluda, Chimney Rock State Park, Dana, Mill Spring,
Edneyville and Lake Adger.

Up to half inch hail will be possible over these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8208 3521 8238 3521 8240 3540 8241
      3546 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 266DEG 11KT 3530 8234

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NCZ064-065-SCZ003-112045-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Greenville Mountains SC-
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Brevard, or near Dupont State Forest, moving east at 10
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Flat Rock, Laurel Park, Jones Gap State Park, Dupont
State Forest, Caesars Head State Park, Etowah, Valley Hill, North
Saluda Reservoir and Tuxedo.

Half inch hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 8263 3529 8268 3537 8239 3511 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 258DEG 7KT 3520 8259

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
441 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NCZ064-065-509-112130-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
441 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 440 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Hendersonville, or 4 miles west of Mills River, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Mills River, Flat Rock, Etowah, Mountain Home, Laurel
Park, Dupont State Forest, Asheville Airport, Fletcher and Looking
Glass.

Half inch hail will be possible over these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8262 3544 8261 3543 8258 3545 8256
      3543 8254 3542 8254 3543 8253 3528 8231
      3518 8246 3517 8249 3516 8250 3517 8250
      3516 8253 3516 8255 3514 8258 3536 8278
      3545 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 317DEG 12KT 3537 8264

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NCZ036-037-112200-
Davie NC-Iredell NC-
521 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL DAVIE AND NORTHERN
IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 521 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Statesville, or 6 miles west of Harmony, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Harmony, Turnersburg, Olin, Sheffield, Union Grove and
Cool Springs.

Half inch hail will be possible over these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 8057 3584 8066 3584 8067 3586 8067
      3586 8069 3585 8071 3576 8074 3572 8078
      3592 8102 3606 8088 3605 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 309DEG 10KT 3595 8088

JPT