Isolated thunderstorms developed over the Blue Ridge during the afternoon. A woman was struck by lightning as a storm approached northern Greenville County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed over the Blue Ridge during the afternoon. A woman was struck by lightning as a storm approached northern Greenville County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 2:03 PM EST, 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 PM EDT Fri May 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon mainly mountain thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. As a ridge of high pressure builds over the area Sunday and
Monday, temperatures will increase to near record levels.
Precipitation chances increase Tuesday and remain elevated through
late next week as a complex low pressure system impacts the area,
but temperatures will return to near normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM: Water vapor satellite imagery and the latest RAP
500 mb height field show a general ridge overhead but with a
weakness in the ridge pattern moving into the southern Appalachians
late this afternoon. Any DPVA forcing with this feature appears
quite weak. The latest HRRR still features scattered convective
development in the heart of the forecast area, generally developing
from Brevard to Hendersonville, which then moves east across the
foothills and possibly the piedmont before dissipating early this
evening. This is in line with KGSP radar trends which already have
isolated to scattered convection developing and moving off the
eastern escarpment of the southern/central mountains. LAPS shows
fairly robust sbCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 in the far western
Upstate, but triggering is expected to be a bit more lacking there.
The best potential for isolated severe hail and wind will likely be
in the immediate lee of the central mountains - similar to the area
hardest hit on Thursday afternoon. Convection will dissipate quickly
mid to late evening, and little more than lingering debris clouds,
with southwest mountain valley fog, are expected during a mild
overnight period.
The H5 ridge will build more in earnest over the southeast on
Saturday. The resulting warmer mid-level temperatures should inhibit
convective coverage a bit more on Saturday afternoon, with mainly
just isolated to scattered coverage in the usual initiation areas
around the Pisgah Forest region. Wind profiles will remain rather
light and southwesterly through the near-term, with little to no
potential for storms to organize. Max temperatures should be solidly
in the lower 90s east of the mountains, with plenty of mid to upper
80s in the lower mountain valleys, but with maxes just a touch below
records in most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM Fri: A subtropical ridge over our area gets the squeeze
play from the Westerlies to our north and a developing upper low to
the south. Surface high pressure remains in place through the period
but with a weakening trend. The near record heat for Sunday drops a
couple of degrees on Monday as thicknesses fall with the weakening
ridge. Dew points are on the dry side Sunday keeping heat index
values below the temps. However, dew points will be on the increase
Monday bringing heat index values a few degrees above the temps.
Still well below head advisory levels though. CAPE values will peak
out above 1000 J/kg Sunday, but the very warm mid levels will keep a
cap in place for all but the mountains. Even there, only isolated
convection over the higher peaks is expected.
With the increase in dew points on Monday, CAPE values increase
significantly, above 2000 J/kg across much of the region. The mid
level temps remain warm but slowly diminish during the day with the
weakening ridge. This erodes the cap across the mountains but leaves
it in place elsewhere until very late in the day. With the cap and
relatively high LFC levels, don't expect more than isolated coverage
outside of the mountains. Scattered coverage should develop across
the mountains where the better instability can be realized. Shear
remains in the weak side, but increasing surface delta theta-e
values could lead to isolated damaging wind gusts, mainly across the
mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Fri: Upper ridge fully erodes Tuesday as the area comes
under the influence of the developing closed low moving north across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This low slowly moves north to the
Alabama/Georgia border on Wednesday and into the TN valley Thursday.
The surface ridge holds on a little longer, not fully eroding until
Thursday. However, the southerly low level flow increases through the
period keeping deep moisture in place. The GEFS mean PW values
increase to 2 standard deviations above normal for late Tuesday into
Thursday. Mean CAPE values show instability remain in place each day
as well. Therefore, have continued the likely PoP across most of the
area each day. Severe chances look minimal, but heavy rain could
become a problem, especially with the potentially prolonged nature
of this event. Highs fall to just a few degrees above normal with
lows around 10 degrees above normal.
The upper low weakens and moves out of the area Friday but
southwesterly flow remains as another upper low approaches from the
west. This deep southwesterly flow keeps a moist and unstable air
mass in place. Expect likely convective coverage across the
mountains and a good chance elsewhere. Again, severe chances will be
minimal but heavy rain potential continues. Highs remain a few
degrees above normal with lows around 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Expect convective coverage to be less than
observed on Thursday afternoon as mid/upper level forcing is weaker
and profiles are warming aloft. That said, TEMPO for TSRA seems
reasonable from KAVL out along a southern foothills/piedmont track
to KCLT through 00Z. Will feature VCTS at the foothill sites, except
for keeping KAND dry with any convection likely staying closer to
the NC/SC border. Expect VFR conditions throughout, except under any
thunderstorms and also in fog/low stratus in the southwest mountain
valleys overnight. Winds will be generally light from the southwest
through the period, except mainly NW at KAVL.
Outlook: A summer-like regime will continue into early next week,
with isolated to scattered diurnal convection expected most days.
Any restrictions should be confined to areas under showers/
thunderstorms or early day fog/stratus in the lower mountain valleys.
Confidence Table...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 05-12
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1980 44 1960 65 1918 36 1969
1956
1914
KCLT 94 1889 56 1960 69 1896 39 1969
KGSP 99 1916 56 1960 68 1979 38 1989
1933
RECORDS FOR 05-13
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1933 54 1917 67 1890 31 1895
KCLT 93 1881 59 1891 73 1881 38 1960
KGSP 95 1886 62 1972 71 1933 37 1917
1954
1938
RECORDS FOR 05-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1956 52 1954 63 1962 30 1895
1896 1908
KCLT 95 1956 53 1954 73 1881 41 2013
1917
KGSP 95 1886 52 1954 71 1933 41 2013
1960
1917
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-501>510-SCZ001>010-121100- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie- Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford- Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson- 651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast today, with the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening. Cloud to ground lightning is possible with any of the storms. However, a few of the storms will be capable of severe weather in the form of damaging winds and hail as large as 1 inch in diameter. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-121100- Elbert-Union-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the lower Piedmont of the Carolinas and northeast Georgia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. Wimberley
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018
NCZ065-507>510-111915-
Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...
At 231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Hendersonville, or 4 miles north of Saluda, moving east
at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Tryon, Saluda, Chimney Rock State Park, Dana, Mill Spring,
Edneyville and Lake Adger.
Up to half inch hail will be possible over these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3519 8208 3521 8238 3521 8240 3540 8241
3546 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 266DEG 11KT 3530 8234
JPTThe Greer radar (KGSP), 43 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:45 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Newspaper reported a woman was injured by a lightning strike on Ymca Camp Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 760164.