Scattered convection developed in a moderately unstable air mass with a weak surface trough in place over central North Carolina.
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The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Scattered convection developed in a moderately unstable air mass with a weak surface trough in place over central North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 17, 1:42 PM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 242 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the Eastern United States through the middle of the week, bringing hot and humid weather. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 242 PM Sunday... For this evening and tonight, we're continuing to watch the disturbance that's currently near the VA/WV border. Its still progged to move SSE, crossing S/SE VA and E NC later tonight. Consequently, many of the CAMs show showers/tstms developing over SE VA later this afternoon and moving into and across ERN NC...mainly north and east of Raleigh, this evening. Elsewhere across central NC, ample heating and mesoscale forcing mechanisms like the Piedmont trough, diff heating boundaries, and outflow boundaries are already resulting in isolated to scattered showers/tstms over central NC. Latest mesoanalysis shows the most abundant moisture and best instability is located generally south and east of the Triad, so will have the highest PoPs this afternoon and early evening in that general area, then shifting highest PoPs east of Raleigh later this evening due to the aforementioned upper disturbance influence. Later overnight, all shower/tstm activity is expected to shift southeast of central NC, leaving the rest of the night partly cloudy. If the sky clears out where the rain previously fell, those wet areas that see clear skies could see some fog or stratus development. Lows tonight in the lower 70s. For Monday and Monday night...A series of weak disturbances rounding the east side of the mid/upr ridge (the ridge now centered over the mountains), coupled with the sea breeze and/or outflow boundaries from shower/tstm activity earlier in the night, will keep the focus and chance for additional scattered shower/tstm activity during the day and evening mainly east of I-95. Farther west (west of the Triangle) and closer to the ridge center, it will be a bit drier with weaker large-scale forcing. As such, for the day and evening hours Monday, will have the highest PoPs east and lowest PoPs west. While scattered showers and tstms and resulting cloudiness may providing a limiting factor for temps, where it remains dry with ample sunshine look for highs to climb well into the mid 90s, with head index values approaching heat advisory criteria (which is 105). Partly cloudy Monday night with lows in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 PM Sunday... Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day and the day with the highest heat indices. Current projections remain just about the same as previously mentioned. We expect the ridge to be overhead. The dew points of 70-75 will combine with highs in the mid to upper 90s to produce heat indices of 100-105 in the NW Piedmont, and 105-110 in the east. This is highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. It currently looks as if only isolated storm chances during the afternoon or early evening will be the only chance of cooling relief Tuesday. Even lows Tuesday night should remain 75-80, near the record high daily minimums. This could yield Excessive Heat conditions. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 155 PM Sunday... Heat should back off just a bit, higher storm chances mid to late week. Hot and humid weather is expected to continue into the late week and weekend. There is a possibility of a weak cold front "backdooring" our region, possibly aided by convective outflow boundaries Thursday night into Friday. This obviously would aid in brining some enhanced thunderstorm chances and slightly cooler daytime highs for at least part of the region Friday into Sunday. Forecasting where thunderstorms and resultant boundaries will be this far out is very low confidence. Of much higher confidence is that most guidance suggests that the main fronts or cooler/less humid air will remain to our north, given the strength of the mid/upper ridge over the region. The ridge is forecast to back off a bit with slightly lower heights over the Mid-Atlantic States late Wednesday through Thursday. This does suggest a higher chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the 70s expected, with highs in the 90s (mid to upper 90s Wednesday, and lower to mid 90s Thursday through the weekend). Currently, the highest POP is advertised on Thursday, with a bit lower chances late week (again timing of mesoscale features low confidence this far out). && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 127 PM Sunday... 24 hour TAF conditions: VFR conditions are currently found across central NC. Additional CU, some of which will be tall/deep, will develop this afternoon, and may lead to a few showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The areas with the best chance for seeing these storms will be mainly from RDU south and eastward, although we can't rule out a stray shower/tstm back toward KGSO. Flt conditions in and near storms may briefly drop to IFR in reduced cigs/vsby with downpours. For later tonight, after any residual showers from dissipating storms end, some patchy fog or stratus will be possible, but mainly where the rain fell from earlier showers/tstms. In those areas, flt conditions may briefly drop to low-MVFR. Otherwise, after sunrise Monday morning, look for any fog to dissipate and stratus to lift, resulting in VFR conditions across all of central NC by late morning, and for the rest of the day. Beyond 18Z Monday: VFR conditions will generally persist through Wed. Typical mid-afternoon-through-mid-evening shower/storm chances will be lower than usual through Tue, with only an isolated risk each day. Shower/storm chances will increase Wed and particularly Thu as the stable ridge over the region weakens and a frontal zone approaches from the north. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...np
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 834 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 NCZ007-021>023-038-039-073-181245- Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly- 834 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Daytime heating and ample moisture will likely lead to scattered late-day thunderstorms across parts of central North Carolina today. The strongest of these storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Dangerously hot weather is expected through at least mid week. Heat index values are likely to be 100 to 105 degrees each day Monday through Thursday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089-181245- Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe- Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne- Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 834 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Daytime heating and ample moisture will likely lead to scattered late-day thunderstorms across parts of central North Carolina today. The strongest of these storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Dangerously hot weather is expected through at least mid week. Heat index values are likely to be 103 to 109 degrees each day Monday through Thursday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018
NCZ025>028-041>043-078-172030-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Johnston NC-Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-
Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018
...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
WAYNE...NASH...EDGECOMBE...WAKE...JOHNSTON...WILSON...SOUTHEASTERN
DURHAM AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Tarboro to near
Clayton to near Cary. Movement was south at 10 mph.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Smithfield, Nashville,
Louisburg, Wilson and Wake Forest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3582 7735 3580 7747 3535 7816 3526 7841
3528 7851 3552 7869 3561 7899 3597 7887
3593 7874 3601 7870 3607 7875 3602 7855
3618 7849 3616 7842 3627 7831 3619 7792
3614 7789 3615 7768 3601 7741 3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 356DEG 9KT 3592 7759 3559 7840 3575 7876
10Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018
NCZ078-172130-
Wayne NC-
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...
At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fremont, or 10 miles north of Goldsboro, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mount Olive, Fremont, Walnut Creek, Pikeville, Eureka,
Seven Springs, Mar-Mac, Nahunta and Cliffs Of The Neuse State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways. Drivers are urged to slow down and use
extra caution to avoid hydroplaning.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3534 7782 3518 7783 3515 7789 3517 7793
3516 7797 3519 7802 3518 7809 3519 7816
3521 7817 3522 7824 3529 7830 3532 7827
3532 7824 3534 7822 3535 7815 3542 7816
3559 7806 3559 7782 3543 7783 3538 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 327DEG 12KT 3552 7797
10Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
429 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018
NCZ041-042-077-172130-
Johnston NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
429 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HARNETT...
WAKE AND CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...
At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Raleigh to 7 miles
east of Angier. Movement was southeast at 5 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, Clayton, Dunn,
Angier, Benson and Rdu International.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways. Drivers are urged to slow down and use
extra caution to avoid hydroplaning.
&&
LAT...LON 3562 7827 3527 7837 3526 7841 3526 7849
3532 7854 3530 7858 3529 7859 3545 7888
3559 7892 3592 7881 3592 7855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 331DEG 6KT 3576 7869 3554 7860
10The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:42 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds resulted in part of the roof of a residence being peeled back at the 700 block of Sedgewood Road.
A few trees were blown down along O B J Road near Timothy Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, June 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 768870, 768871.