Hail and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, June 17, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
131 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Already cells are popping up along the Cumberland Plateau with a
cumulus field filling in across the remainder of Middle Tennessee.
Expect cells to become more widespread during the afternoon, then
mostly dissipate by sunset. Morning sounding from OHX once again
shows good instability with steep mid-level lapse rates and
sufficient moisture. Given that there is so little shear, any
storms that eventually become strong to severe will be limited to
hail and gusty winds. High pressure continues to cover the
southeast U.S. this afternoon both at the surface and aloft. With
so little support aloft, cells today will be slow-movers, and
existing cells are exhibiting westward/southwestward propagation.
High pressure will remain the dominant feature across the region
for most of this week, and only when we get to Thursday and Friday
do we see the ridge start to break down. Both the GFS and Euro
bring a shortwave into the Great Plains on Thursday, and this
system will maintain its amplification as it moves eastward (as
opposed to getting washed out by the ridge). The upper trough will
move across Middle Tennessee around 00Z Sunday. Don't know that
we'll get an actual fropa at the surface, but POP's will increase
somewhat as we head toward next weekend. In the near term, look
for temperatures to level off beginning tomorrow with heat indices
generally topping out in the upper 90's. Given that the current
level of instability will remain with us for the foreseeable
future, scattered thunderstorms during peak-heating hours are
going to be a fixture this week. At this time, the SPC still only
shows general thunderstorms for Middle Tennessee on days 1-3, so
most of our storms should behave themselves. And no heat
advisories will be needed anytime soon.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Pattern to remain generally the same this taf cycle. Convection
largely isold-sct and diurnal in nature. Have included VCTS all
sites for possible storms but CSV in area of greatest expected
coverage this afternoon. Light pre-dawn fog very likely and have
included as well. May have to add brief TEMPO group for convection
later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  92  73  93  73 /  20  30  10  30  20
Clarksville    73  91  72  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  20
Crossville     69  86  68  85  68 /  20  30  20  30  20
Columbia       72  91  71  91  71 /  20  40  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   71  90  70  90  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
Waverly        72  90  72  90  71 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
502 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-181015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
502 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values will peak in the 98-103 degree range this
afternoon across much of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland
Plateau. Use caution if outdoors for long periods of time, as this
combination of heat and humidity can cause heat stroke and heat
exhaustion quickly.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across Middle
Tennessee this afternoon, some of which could be strong to
possibly severe with large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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