The leading edge of cool air nosing down the coast caused widespread, mainly stratiform rain which was slow moving and producing rainfall rates greater than one inch per hour for several hours. The front nearly stalled across Wake County during the morning, with a heavy rain focus south of Raleigh down into northern Harnett county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
The leading edge of cool air nosing down the coast caused widespread, mainly stratiform rain which was slow moving and producing rainfall rates greater than one inch per hour for several hours. The front nearly stalled across Wake County during the morning, with a heavy rain focus south of Raleigh down into northern Harnett county. Radar estimated fairly extensive 2 to 3.35 inches of rainfall. This resulted in a couple of flash flooding reports.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 7:30 AM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 830 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move southward through the area this morning. High pressure will then build across the middle Atlantic region through the weekend, bringing much cooler and drier air to our region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 830 AM Saturday... The cold front is finally making a move more quickly southward into northern NC. Showers, with locally heavy rain and training, have developed and were moving slowly southward through the Piedmont and Central Coastal Plain. The heaviest rain extended from near Albemarle to Pittsboro to Raleigh/Garner to Wilson. Radar indicated 50-55dbz in the locally heaviest showers (low topped convection). The much drier air, characterized by dew points in the lower 50s in Washington/Baltimore were advecting southward toward our region. It will take much of the day for the drier air to win out. Expect clearing from the north later this afternoon and tonight. For the rest of the morning, we will carry 100 POP in the Triangle tapering to 30 POP in the NW Piedmont Triad region. Increasing POP to likely in the south and east for later this morning and early afternoon, before ending later today in the SE. Highs will be held in check, mostly 70s north to lower 80s SE. Gradual clearing tonight. Lows in the upper 50s at Roxboro to near 70 from Fayetteville and Goldsboro south and east to Clinton. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Saturday... Precipitation will begin to wind down by Sunday with clearing skies from north to south through the day. With more insolation, highs will rebound into the low to mid 80s from north to south. Winds will remain out of the northeast at 7-10 kts helping to keep temperatures below normal for early July. All in all a quiet weather day with low temperatures bottoming out in the low to mid 60s for a second straight night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 AM Saturday... Mon/Mon night: Dry weather will continue, as the atypically cool temps of Sun begin to modify. Mid level ridging will continue to push in from the west, yielding net subsidence and a stable column. At the surface, a narrow ridge will extend in from the NE, with northeasterly surface flow reinforced by the circulation around what is now TD3, expected to be centered just SE of Hatteras early Mon. Extremely low PW for this time of year (possibly nearing a record low for the day) will result in no pops and generally clear skies. With thicknesses of 20-25 m below normal countered with bright July sun, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s. Surface dewpoints are likely to drop into the very pleasant 50s across northern sections Mon afternoon. Lows Mon night in the 60s under clear skies. Tue/Tue night: What is now TD3 is expected to continue to strengthen as it lifts gradually to the NE starting Tue, captured by broad troughing over E Canada and the Northeast states. Heights aloft as well as surface pressures will drop a bit, but mid levels will remain warm and dry with very light flow from the NW, while the surface ridge is supplanted by weak Piedmont troughing. Expect patchy high thin clouds and just a few flat convective clouds Tue, but otherwise the column will be too dry and stable for precip, with no trigger or focus evident. With another dry day and plenty of sunshine, more typical summer weather will return, with thicknesses nearing normals. Highs 90-95. Skies will trend to partly cloudy Tue night with the arrival of high clouds as energy drops down the west side of the trough, through the Great Lakes region. Lows will rebound to summerlike 69-74 readings. Wed-Fri: The GFS/GEFS show the mid level trough extending down the East Coast Wed/Thu, and with rebounding surface warmth/PW and lift augmentation provided by mid level DPVA as energy continues to drop into the trough base, shower/storm chances will increase, maximizing during peak heating. Will trend sky cover up to partly to mostly cloudy with good chance pops both days. Thicknesses will remain near or above normal but will be offset by greater cloud cover, especially in the afternoon/evening, so expect highs in the low to mid 90s and lows 69-75. Locally heavy rain will be possible, especially over the southern CWA along both a weak inverted surface trough and axis of high PW (aoa 2.0") with low steering flow. Will dip convection chances down a bit toward climatology for Fri, as the trough axis weakens and lifts NE, leaving NC in a typical summer pattern of low shear through the column and high late-day CAPE within an ill-defined surface pressure pattern. The GFS/Canadian show yet another tropical system tracking NNE off the NC coast late week, and while any such impacts for us would be nil, it's worth keeping an eye on it. Highs back up to the mostly mid 90s. -GIH && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 700 AM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: A new band of showers has developed from halifax through the Triangle to Albemarle. These are slow moving and will be a problem for KRDU and KRWI for the next several hours. IFR ceilings are predominant across the central and south with mainly MVFR across the northwest Piedmont. Conditions may be slow to improve this morning and sub-VFR conditions could linger into the afternoon. Some wind gusts will be possible between 15-20 kts as and just after the front comes through. Otherwise expect 10 kts sustained out of the northeast. Outlook: Once conditions return to VFR, little convection is expected until Wednesday when a cold front moves in from the northwest, bringing a better chance of adverse conditions for the end of the week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Badgett/BSD NEAR TERM...Badgett/Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Ellis
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 301 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-080715- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 301 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:15 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Banks Road and Ten Ten Road were reported to be flooded.
Flash Flooding was reported along Gideon Creek Way near the intersection of Durham Drive. One vehicle became stalled in the flood waters, prompting a water rescue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 775029, 775031.