Damaging Wind in Texas, July 7, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
229 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Once again, not much change to the previous forecast with below
normal temperatures and decent rain chances expected for the next
several days. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will remain under
deep east/southeasterly flow through this weekend as a broad upper
ridge, currently centered near Colorado/Four Corners region, slowly
migrates toward the Central Plains. This, along with increased cloud
cover/rain, will keep high temperatures generally in the upper 80s
to low 90s for most areas through at least the early part of next
week.

Good coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half
of the forecast area yesterday and a small area of activity
brought welcomed rainfall to portions of Southeast New Mexico this
morning. Currently, scattered thunderstorms already developing
across the region as temperatures heat up with abundant moisture
in place. Much like yesterday, expect thunderstorms to continue
through this evening. Initially thought that maybe we would get a
lull in rain chances Sunday, however latest model runs suggest a
slow- moving shortwave, currently moving through northern NM, will
take its time moving SW and perhaps even become somewhat
elongated/sheared NE to SW. This will provide some weak upper
diffluence/lift over the area, resulting in another round of
scattered convection Sunday. Monday/Tuesday, a weakening inverted
trough translating west through south-central TX looks to keep
thunderstorms in the forecast with best chances along/south of
I-10 and in the higher terrain regions during this time. Well
above normal precipitable water values will remain in place today
through Monday and the potential for some localized heavy
rainfall/flash flooding will continue, especially for areas that
receive multiple rounds of rainfall.

Early next week, the upper ridge becomes centered over the Central
Plains and weak easterly flow aloft will be maintained through much
of the week. Therefore, temperatures should be slow to warm
Wednesday through Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s by
Saturday. Rain chances will be nil most areas mid-late next week but
think the higher terrain regions could see some thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours with daytime heating and weak E/SE
upslope flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  90  71  88 /  30  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       68  89  69  88 /  30  40  40  30
Dryden                         72  90  73  88 /  40  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  69  87  69  85 /  30  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 65  83  66  82 /  30  30  40  30
Hobbs                          66  86  66  85 /  30  30  20  30
Marfa                          61  83  62  80 /  30  30  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           71  89  71  87 /  30  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  89  71  87 /  30  30  30  30
Wink                           70  90  71  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/27

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-081930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
226 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 /126 PM MDT Sat Jul 7 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across much of
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. The primary threat is locally
heavy rainfall which could potentially lead to localized flash
flooding and occasional lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2018

TXZ068-069-072245-
Crane TX-Upton TX-
453 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CRANE AND CENTRAL
UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rankin, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crane, Rankin, King Mountain and Crane County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10199 3108 10208 3141 10244 3158 10194
      3120 10179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 138DEG 14KT 3120 10197

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