Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developed over the North Carolina Piedmont during the late afternoon and evening. One of the storms produced brief damaging winds in the Statesville area.
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The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developed over the North Carolina Piedmont during the late afternoon and evening. One of the storms produced brief damaging winds in the Statesville area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 3:44 PM EST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
444 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will persist across the area to start the
week. Expect mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will be higher into the first half of the week
as deeper moisture moves inland from the Atlantic Ocean. High
temperatures will run around normal through the week with seasonally
high levels of humidity that will give lows above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 440 PM EDT...Shower and thunderstorm coverage continues to
increase across the CWFA, with best coverage west. Forecast already
showed these trends, so update is mainly to tweak PoPs and temps.
Atmosphere is very unstable, but DCAPE values are much lower than
the past few days and low in general for this time of year. Can't
completely rule out a sever storm, but chance is quite low. More
likely to see isolated heavy rainfall given the southeasterly storm
motion and training cells into the mountains and Blue Ridge.
Activity will likely linger thru tonight and into the overnight as
weak upslope flow persists and instability is slow to dissipate.
Otherwise, a very moist airmass underneath a subtropical ridge will
persist over the region thru the near-term period. Tomorrow will be
similar to today, but with lower chances for convection across the
eastern zones and slightly lower PWAT values overall. In addition,
overall convective coverage is likely to be less than today with
activity confined to a more typical summer diurnal timeframe. Temps
will remain near or just a few degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:30 PM EDT Sunday: Over the course of the short range
period...the upper pattern will come to be dominated by a deep
easterly flow aloft between an elongated upper anticyclone to the
north and a subtropical upper low moving westward that approaches
the FL east coast by late Wednesday. In this sort of pattern,
we often see a shift in the diurnal cycle, with precip chances
reaching a maximum in the mid- to late-evening hours and some
showers holding on thru the early morning hours. Precip chances
still ramp up as one might expect over the higher terrain where
they are forced by differential heating, but east of the mtns
we look for convective activity to fire over the coastal plain,
perhaps initiated by the seabreeze, then working its way westward
reaching the fcst area late in the day. Precip chances in the
fcst attempt to account for that. Otherwise, it will feel like
sub-tropical summer, with plenty of humidity and temps a bit above
normal, but not quite high enough to suggest a Heat Advisory. Temps
might actually be a bit closer to normal on the Fourth if showers
become more prevalent. Would not rule out isolated severe weather
each day, with the better chance being Tuesday afternoon/evening
owing to better sfc-based CAPE, but the bigger threat might be
flash flooding in the evening/overnight hours owing to the deep
warm cloud depths typical of the expected type of air mass.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Sunday: The medium range models remain in good
agreement. Forecast begins Wednesday night with a wave of low
pressure reaching the JAX area of Florida from the east. This low
will support the higher POPs for our area with the tropical moisture
and some upslope component with the circulation from SE up into the
mountains. The higher POPs continue through Thursday as the low
lingers over north Florida. The new GFS keeps the low near TLH
through Saturday morning. The upper trough dipping down over New
England next weekend previously was only supporting a weak cold
front to make it to the Virginias then stall. Now seems the front
may reach NC before stalling late in the weekend and remain there to
start the next week. The EC shows most favorable southeasterly
upslope late Saturday and early Saturday night. During the medium
range instability seems best Wed evening with around 2000 CAPe area
wide and around 2000 CAPE far SW NC late Thursday. Otherwise,
instability is forecast to be rather low Friday through Sunday
night. Temperatures remaining near normal through Sunday then cool
about 5 degrees to start the new week due to the front and more
clouds.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect a combination of VFR and below VFR
conditions thru the 18z TAF period. Restrictions include MVFR visby
and cigs tomorrow morning at all sites with IFR conditions expected
at KAVL and KHKY during the 10 to 14z time period. The other sites
could go down to IFR as well, but confidence is not as high at this
point. Otherwise, convective activity has just begun to start up
across the area and is expected to spread thru the afternoon and into
the evening. Overall, the best coverage is still expected across the
western 2/3 of the CWFA, however the eastern third could certainly
see good coverage as well. Thus, I kept TEMPOs for tsra at all sites
from roughly 20 to 24z, with KAVL starting a few hours earlier.
Convection could linger well after 00z tonight, which was handled
with either PROB30 groups for tsra or VCTS where chances were lower.
Activity should eventually die off by the early morning with the above
mentioned restrictions settling in by that point. Tomorrow will be
similar to today, but with lower chances for convection across the
eastern zones including KCLT and KHKY. In addition, overall convective
coverage is likely to be less than today.
Outlook: Seasonal summertime convective activity will prevail thru
the week. MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible each morning as a
moist, ELY flow from the Atlantic continues underneath a subtropical
ridge.
Confidence Table...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 95% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 98% Med 70% Med 78%
KAVL High 100% Med 75% Low 50% High 98%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 95% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 98% Med 65% Med 79%
KAND High 100% High 100% Med 75% High 86%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JPTHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 508 AM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503- 505-507-509-510-SCZ001>007-010>012-019-020915- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey- Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon- Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains- Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains- Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood- 508 AM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. The main threat with these storms will be cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-SCZ008-009-013-014- 020915- Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke- Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Cherokee-York-Chester- 508 AM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. The main threat with these storms will be cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 455 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018 GAZ010-NCZ062>064-SCZ001-002-012130- Rabun GA-Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC- Pickens Mountains SC-Oconee Mountains SC- 455 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018 ...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN... SOUTHEASTERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT... At 454 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster of thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles southeast of Franklin to 18 miles southwest of Brevard, and moving north at 20 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Highlands, Rosman, Sky Valley, Cashiers, Salem, Lake Toxaway, Jocassee Gorges, Devils Fork State Park, Lake Jocassee and Gorges State Park. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher ground if threatened by flood waters. && LAT...LON 3512 8349 3522 8282 3489 8278 3486 8330 TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 169DEG 17KT 3503 8329 3507 8298 SGL
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018
SCZ006-010-012145-
Anderson SC-Greater Greenville SC-
521 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND
EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...
At 521 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Anderson, or 4 miles east of Belton, moving north at 20
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Belton, Williamston, Honea Path, West Pelzer, Princeton and Fork
Shoals.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3461 8260 3473 8234 3450 8229 3445 8236
3442 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 162DEG 17KT 3454 8243
SGLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018
SCZ007-012-012230-
Laurens SC-Spartanburg SC-
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LAURENS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...
At 552 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Laurens, or 9 miles southeast of Woodruff, moving
northwest at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Enoree, Cross Anchor and Ora.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3468 8211 3478 8188 3461 8185 3460 8185
3460 8184 3458 8184 3454 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 152DEG 13KT 3463 8194
SGLSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 617 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018 SCZ006-007-012-012245- Laurens SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC- 617 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LAURENS... SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT... At 617 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14 miles south of Spartanburg, or over Woodruff, moving northwest at 20 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Five Forks, Woodruff, Roebuck, Moore, Reidville and Enoree. Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher ground if threatened by flood waters. && LAT...LON 3470 8189 3464 8202 3480 8224 3492 8197 TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 154DEG 19KT 3475 8202 SGL
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 620 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018 NCZ035-036-012245- Iredell NC-Alexander NC- 620 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018 ...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER AND NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT... At 620 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with torrential rainfall 7 miles northwest of Statesville, or 6 miles east of Stony Point, moving northwest at 10 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Statesville, Stony Point, Love Valley, Troutman, Hiddenite, Turnersburg, Olin, Union Grove and Scotts. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher ground if threatened by flood waters. && LAT...LON 3580 8074 3570 8087 3589 8118 3605 8087 TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 145DEG 11KT 3588 8094 SGL
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 147 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:27 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Public reported (via Social Media) trees blown down on Hartness Rd and Radio Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 774953.