Strong Cold Air Damming and a Miller-A storm track from the northern Gulf of Mexico to off the NC coast, brought record early heavy snowfall of 8 to 15 inches to parts of central NC on December 9th and 10th. 2 inches of freezing rain across portions of the western Piedmont counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 25 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Strong Cold Air Damming and a Miller-A storm track from the northern Gulf of Mexico to off the NC coast, brought record early heavy snowfall of 8 to 15 inches to parts of central NC on December 9th and 10th. There was also a narrow swath of 0.1 to 0.2 inches of freezing rain across portions of the western Piedmont counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 9, 1:11 AM EST, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 111 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will extend south across the middle Atlantic states today. Meanwhile, low pressure will track across northern FL and southern GA this morning, then along the Southeast U.S. coast through this evening. A secondary area of low pressure will then develop off the coast of the Carolinas early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1100 PM Saturday... Early December Winter Storm will bring significant snow and ice to much of central NC... Main changes to current forecast was to increase ice totals and move an area of ice further northwest. In particular, Stanly, Davidson, Randolph, Montgomery, and Anson counties are now forecast to observe ice totals of 0.25" to 0.40" in places. Snowfall totals were also reduced across the coastal plain while keeping totals similar across the northwest. This uptick in ice totals was due to the latest runs of the NAM continuing to show a warm nose forming. The latest 850 and 700 MB surface analysis would also support this. At 700 MB the closed low was located over southern Arkansas with a track of central NC forecast. The 0 degree isotherm was located over southern South Carolina to northern Georgia and to northern Louisiana. At 850 MB the 0 degree isotherm spans across central North Carolina towards northern Tennesse. As the low heads northeast warm low level air will likely quickly overspread the area. The latest run of the NAM Nest continues to be the warmest with the low level warm air surging northeast. The Nest actually has the transition line approaching INT and GSO. This appears to be to warm. The NAM is slightly further southeast which makes sense. New zones already out. Residents in the southern Piedmont should be ready for numerous to potentially widespread power outages. Prev Discussion-> Overview: Lead southern stream shortwave moving into the Lower MS Valley this afternoon will eject east-northeast through the Carolinas through late Sunday, with a secondary impulse quickly following on its heels Sunday night and into Monday. At the surface, attendant sfc low traversing the Gulf Coast States will emerge and re-organize off the SE coast Sunday and Sunday night before moving out to sea on Monday. At the same time, a strong +1035 mb surface high building east into the Mid-Atlantic region will wedge south into the Carolinas tonight through Sunday, setting the stage for a significant winter storm that will bring significant snow and ice to much of central NC. Model Trends: The biggest change with the latest 12z/8 model guidance is the signal of a more prominent warm nose across central and eastern portions of central NC. This will result in an increasing threat of significant icing/freezing rain just south and east of the heart of the cold air damming airmass and expected heavy wet snow totals across the northern/northwest Piedmont. Otherwise, there is very little change wrt to the timing/precip onset through the event. Similarly, models are persistent in showing anomalously high liquid equivalent amounts of 1.5 to 2.0" across the area, as both strong dynamic and f-gen forcing overspreads the area between 09z to 21z. Snow/Ice amounts: Only a slight change in forecast snow amounts with the heavy wet snowfall axis of 8 to 12 inches expected to along and north of I-85, with the predominate p-type expected to fall as mainly, with diabatic and strong dynamic lift/cooling supporting a deep near freezing isothermal layer. Lift and saturation will begin to wane 21 to 00z, with p-type changing over to a light freezing rain/drizzle overnight. Ice amounts are expected to be less than a 0.10". Just south of this heavy snow area and west of US 1, snow amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with the bulk of the snow occurring through mid to late morning. Then as the warm air aloft spreads into the area from the southeast, p-type is expected to change-over to freezing rain, with a 0.10 to 0.25" of freezing rain/ice possible through the afternoon. If the change-over to freezing rain occurs quicker than forecast, snow amounts will be less, but ice amounts could easily exceed a 0.25" of an ice. Ice/freezing rain amounts combined with wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will cause widespread damage from downed trees and power-lines. Finally, east of US-1 and south of I-85, warm nose spreading into the area during the mid to late morning will result in a sharp NW to SE reduction in snow and ice amounts. After a quick morning burst of snow and/or snow-sleet mix, which could bring 1 to 4 inches of snow to the area, a brief period of freezing rain can be expected before changing over to rain. Little to no ice is expected. Temperatures: Lows tonight in the mid/upper 20s NW to lower/mid 30s SE. Highs Sunday should remain at and just below freezing across the north to upper 30s/near 40 SE. Lows Sunday night very similar to Saturday night. Thus any snow and ice on roads and surfaces will linger, resulting in hazardous driving conditions through Monday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Saturday... Model solutions begin to diverge Monday into Monday night, leading to lower forecast confidence. Light wintry precipitation will be ongoing across much of the northern Piedmont early Monday, most likely in the form of light freezing rain/freezing drizzle as moisture lacking in the favored dendrite region dries out. Additionally, forcing/lift becoming weaker through the morning into the early afternoon, leading to decreasing precip coverage. Thus, not anticipating any appreciable accretion of ice after daybreak Monday across the north. In addition, temperatures will slowly recover to near or just above freezing. Confidence decreases late Monday into Monday night. The GFS depicts an energized mid/upper low crossing the SE Monday night, initiating and intensifying a sfc wave just offshore of MYR or ILM Monday night. This system spreads moisture back into the SE counties while the energized upper level low moistens the atmosphere in the favored dendrite region. If this occurs, snowflakes will form aloft, though the GFS depicts quite a bit of dry air in the sub cloud layer, leading to the precip aloft potentially evaporating before reaching the ground. The NAM depicts more moisture through the column as well as appreciable lift, leading to a band of precip across the far south-southeast. With a deep isothermal layer projected, could see a period of snow/rain with potential for light accumulation. The ECMWF drives the upper system farther to our south, leaving our southern counties high and dry. While rooting for the ECMWF, cannot ignore the NAM/GFS solution all together, so will depict the spotty light rain Monday afternoon across the south half becoming mixed with snow or a chance of snow/sleet. With PoPs in the chance category, not too keen to suggest amounts though any amounts should be fairly light. If the NAM/GFS remain consistent, will need to increase PoPS and introduce light wintry amounts in later forecasts. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM Saturday... Improving weather conditions anticipated Tuesday into Tuesday night as the upper level system pulls away from the SE coast. Dry conditions anticipated Tuesday through Wednesday night. The next storm system will approach from the west-southwest Thursday, increasing the threat for rain showers Thursday night and more so Friday into Saturday. Kinematics rather impressive with this system with strong low level shear probable. While kinematics available for convection, current model projects suggest a weakly unstable atmosphere over the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. However, the wind pattern suggest potential to pull a low level unstable air mass into the SE third of our forecast region late Friday into Friday night. Will need to monitor this system for potential severe convection. The main concern will be heavy rainfall as some models suggesting in excess of an inch, with localized amounts over two inches. With rivers likely running high from the anticipated rainfall tonight-Monday, this additional rainfall may result in several rivers going into flood. Temperatures through the period will remain below normal, as much as 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Sly flow Friday may be able to advect a warmer air mass into the eastern counties, possibly pushing temperatures to near/above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 105 AM Sunday... Precipitation will expand newd and rapidly increase in intensity -- heavy at times this morning-- with a related lowering of ceilings and visibilities into LIFR-IFR range at all cntl NC TAF sites by 12Z. That precipitation will fall primarily as snow at Piedmont sites, through 14-16Z, after which time sleet will mix with the snow at INT/GSO, and the snow will become freezing rain or rain with surface temperatures very near freezing, at RDU. Snow will change to a cold rain at RWI at about the same time, around 16Z. It will also become windy, as nely surface winds increase to between 20-30 kts during the late morning to midday hours, with a period of low level wind shear also possible owing to 45-60 kt, enely winds around 2000 ft. Lastly, there may also be a period of particularly strong wind gusts --40 to 45 kts-- between 15Z and 20Z, when there has been a signal in hi-res model guidance for the passage of a mesoscale gravity wave that has been migrating across MS, AL, and GA during the past 6 or so hrs. Outlook: Precipitation will gradually lessen and taper to freezing drizzle at GSO and INT, and light rain or drizzle elsewhere, tonight, with a nw to se return to VFR on Monday. Areas of fog will be possible at INT and GSO Mon night, while a secondary area of precipitation, mixed rain and snow, redevelops and affects FAY and especially points sewd to the coast, Mon night. VFR conditions are expected to return area-wide by Tue, then continue through mid to late week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NCZ028-042- 043-077-078-085-086-088-089. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NCZ007>011- 021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...cbl/ BAH SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 335 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084-091030- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly- Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond- 335 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. A storm system will approach central NC late in the week. This system has the potential to bring abundant moisture with it, leading to heavy rainfall. With area rivers likely running high from the anticipated precipitation expected tonight through early Monday, this additional rainfall may send area rivers into flood by next weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. However, spotters are encouraged to report snow and/or ice accumulations. NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-091030- Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland- Sampson- 335 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. A storm system will approach central NC late in the week. This system has the potential to bring abundant moisture with it, leading to heavy rainfall. With area rivers likely running high from the anticipated precipitation expected tonight through early Monday, this additional rainfall may send area rivers into flood by next weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. However, spotters are encouraged to report snow and/or ice accumulations.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 AM SNOW PURNELL 36.03N 78.57W
12/09/2018 M0.8 INCH WAKE NC PUBLIC
&&
JFDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0335 AM SNOW WILSON 35.74N 77.92W
12/09/2018 E0.5 INCH WILSON NC EMERGENCY MNGR
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
344 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0335 AM SNOW 4 SSW RALEIGH 35.77N 78.68W
12/09/2018 M1.3 INCH WAKE NC NWS EMPLOYEE
1.3 INCHES MEASURED AT THE NWS RALEIGH
OFFICE. 1 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR.
&&
JFDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 AM SNOW 3 NNW FLOWERS 35.69N 78.38W
12/09/2018 M1.0 INCH JOHNSTON NC PUBLIC
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
348 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 AM SNOW 4 SW SEDGE GARDEN 36.04N 80.19W
12/09/2018 E3.0 INCH FORSYTH NC PUBLIC
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0350 AM SNOW 3 WNW RALEIGH 35.84N 78.70W
12/09/2018 M1.3 INCH WAKE NC PUBLIC
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
21 winter storm, 4 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall amounts ranged between 10 to 14 inches across the county. One to two tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was also reported.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 3 inches across southern portions of the county to 9 inches across northern portions of the county. One tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was also reported.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 3 inches across southern portions of the county to 8 inches across northern portions of the county. One tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was also reported.
Snowfall amounts ranged between 8 inches to 11 inches across the county. One tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was also reported.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 7 inches across southern portions of the county to 11 inches across northern portions of the county. A thin glaze of ice from freezing rain was also reported.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 7 inches across southern portions of the county to 11 inches across northern portions of the county. A thin glaze of ice from freezing rain was also reported.
Snowfall amounts across the county ranged from a half inch across southern portions to 4 inches across the north. A thin glaze of ice from freezing rain was also reported.
Snowfall amounts across the county ranged from a half inch across southern portions to 4 inches across the north. A thin glaze of ice from freezing rain was also reported.
Snowfall amounts ranged between 11 to 14 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 5 inches across southern portions of the county to 12 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 10 inches across southern portions of the county to as high as 16 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 2 inches across southern portions of the county to 9 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from a dusting across southern portions of the county to 5 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 3 inches across southern portions of the county to 5 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 2 inches across southern portions of the county to 4 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts averaged 5 to 7 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 7 inches across southern portions of the county to 11 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 2 inches across eastern portions of the county to 7 inches across western portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 7 inches across eastern portions of the county to 10 inches across western portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 7 inches across southern portions of the county to 10 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts averaged 10 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 1 to 2 inches, mostly across the northern part of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 1 to 2 inches, mostly across central and northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 1 to 2 inches, mostly across central and northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 1 to 2 inches, mostly across northern portions of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 797837, 797987, 797988, 797989, 797990, 797991, 797992, 797993, 797994, 797995, 797996, 798155, 798157, 798158, 798160, 798161, 798162, 798163, 798164, 798167, 798168, 797832, 797833, 797834, 797835.