NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 21, 1:05 AM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 1:05 AM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
105 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Intensifying low pressure will track up the spine of the
Appalachians tonight through Friday. The low will move across New
England Friday night and then into Southeastern Canada on Saturday.
The low moves well to the north Saturday night as weak high
pressure builds into the region. A weak frontal system moves
through Sunday night into Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday
and Wednesday. Another low pressure system approaches for
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Minor adjustments to the forecast as patchy fog has developed
across portions of the forecast area. It appears there is at
least a small time frame where fog could improve before steadier
rain to the south moves into the area. Overall...still on track
for a significant rain event to begin tonight.
The 00z NAM has come in with about 3 inches of rain for the wrn
half of the cwa, with a max amount of about 4.4 inches over
Fairfield County. Overall QPF is a bit lower than the 18z run.
Developing low pressure across the southeast will track up the
Appalachians tonight into Friday. Models in good agreement that
the central low pressure of the system will be around 985 mb by
Friday afternoon and evening.
Changes to headlines since last forecast package: The flood watch
remains in effect with no changes made. The wind advisory has been
expanded to include northern Middlesex and northern New London
counties. There have been changes to coastal flooding headlines.
Please see the tides/coastal flooding section below for more details.
Rain will continue to expand and grow in coverage through the
evening as low level warm advection increases and a warm front
approaches. The rain will be mostly light during the evening. An
impressive low level jet develops overnight with 925 mb winds
progged by both the NAM and GFS to range from 60 to 75 kt. This
low level jet will bring strong thermal forcing as the warm
front draws near late tonight bringing moderate to locally heavy
rainfall late tonight through Friday evening.
The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic ocean will be open to provide
anomalously high amounts of moisture with this longwave trough.
Precipitable waters are progged to be 4 to 5 standard deviations
above normal for this time of year with values averaging around 1.50
inches on Friday. SPC sounding climatology reveals that these
precipitable waters are close to record observed levels for this
time of year.
Significant rain will occur after midnight through early Friday
morning with the approach and passage of the warm front. There may
be a brief lull in the rainfall during the late morning hours as the
warm front moves north. Strong vorticity energy and lift ahead of
the longwave trough will aid in the development of bands of heavy
rain after the warm front lifts north. There will likely be a strong
convergence zone aiding in the growth of these rain bands that will
slowly move east through the day. The rain bands will initially
develop across NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley after 12z and then
slowly move east through the region during the late morning and
early afternoon. High resolution models have been keying on these
heavy rain bands and possible convection, but the timing among them
differs. Overall, would expect torrential rains within these bands
and the potential for training cells and rainfall rates around 1
inch per hour. There may even be enhancement to this rainfall as it
encounters the stronger low level jet across Long Island and
southern Connecticut. The convergent axis will shift to our east
Friday evening with rainfall rates likely diminishing. A few
rumbles of thunder are also possible on Friday.
The spread of deterministic models and ensembles continue to show
high chances for a widespread 2-3 inch rainfall event.
Locally higher amounts are anticipated due to the heavy rain bands
and orographic enhancement and some locations could see close to 4
inches. Minor river flooding as well as flooding of urban, low lying,
and poor drainage areas is possible. Along the coast, flooding concerns
could be exacerbated if the heaviest rain coincides with the Friday
morning high tide.
Winds are still problematic, especially for coastal regions, Friday
morning into the afternoon. Sustained winds and gusts will increase
tonight as the low level jet develops. The expectation is that
sustained winds may reach 30-35 mph and gusts around 45 mph across
NYC, Long Island, coastal Westchester, coastal Connecticut, and
interior Middlesex and New London in Connecticut. As mentioned
above, the 925 mb winds are progged to range from 60-70 kt. However,
a strengthening low level inversion will help to cap how much of the
winds will be able to reach the surface. The axis of the low level
jet shifts east in the late morning and early afternoon. The latest
runs of the NAM and GFS show an increase to around 80 kt at 925 mb
18z-21z across Long Island. There are stark differences with how the
boundary layer and inversion change in the afternoon. The NAM BUFKIT
profiles show a colder temps below the inversion helping to prevent
significant mixing. The GFS has a much weaker inversion and thus
greater potential for stronger winds to mix down across eastern Long
Island. The GFS may be too aggressive in mixing the inversion out
due to ocean temperatures in the 40s and anomalously warm air in the
inversion layer. The best course of action here is to take a middle
ground and message the potential for gusts 50-55 mph in the
afternoon across Long Island. If trends in the guidance show greater
chances for higher winds, then the advisory may need to be converted
to a high wind warning for eastern Long Island. Winds should weaken
across western zones in the early afternoon and then eastern zones
by evening. There is also some uncertainty in how far into NE NJ and
the Lower Hudson Valley the stronger gusts will reach.
Temperatures will slowly rise into the 50s tonight. Record high
temps are possible on Friday as readings reach the upper 50s and
lower 60s. Record max minimums and daily rainfall are also possible
for December 21. See climate section below for more info.
There may also be some fog development, especially when rainfall
rates diminish at times due to warm air moving over the colder
waters.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Axis of deepest moisture shifts well east of the local area Friday
night. The cold front Friday evening will remain to the west and
work its way through the region Friday night into Saturday morning.
There will still be showers around with lingering energy in the
longwave trough and convergence from the cold front. These showers
should be on the lighter side compared to what is forecast during the
day on Friday. PoPs this period are initially likely to categorical
and then trend down to chance overnight. Gusty winds are still
forecast Friday night, but strongest gusts will be 25-30 mph and
generally near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A long wave upper level trough exits the region on Saturday, as the
main surface low lifts well north of the area. will continue to keep
some leftover chance pops, however most of the precipitation comes
to an end from south to north through the early afternoon.
A re-enforcing shot of cold air will move in behind a trough/cold
front on Saturday. As such, high temperatures will likely occur in
the morning then fall through day. Precipitation will remain all
liquid as the colder air moves in after the upper trough lifts to
the northeast and the surface low is well to the northeast.
Dry weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday as weak high
pressure builds south of the region. A weak shortwave then passes
over the region Sunday night into Monday. While the system looks
fairly weak, will introduce at least some slight chance/chance pops
for snow showers. No accumulations are expected with the snow
showers.
Drier weather is expected Monday night through Wednesday with high
pressure over the region.
The next chance of precipitation comes on
Thursday as the next low pressure and frontal system approach the
region. Will keep chance POPs in the forecast however, timing and
placement of the surface low remains uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***High Impact Event Today***
A warm front slowly lifts to the north this morning, followed by
a cold frontal passage this afternoon. A second cold front
approaches from the west through this evening.
Any lingering MVFR or even VFR is expected to lower IFR or LIFR
by 8-9Z and remain low through the daylight hours, then improve
to MVFR this evening. Moderate, heavy at times, rainfall
expected from 8-9Z through early afternoon. Then tapering off to
showers from W to E.
E winds will veer around to the SE and should increase as the
morning progresses. Gusts up to 40kt and possibly higher will
develop around daybreak and persist into the afternoon, highest
at the coastal terminals. LLWS persists into the afternoon,
60-70kt at 2kft from 150-170 degrees along the coast. The LLWS
could possibly persist into this evening for NYC/Long Island/S
CT terminals.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Late tonight...MVFR or lower conds with intermittent showers
and patchy fog.
.Saturday..Mainly VFR but MVFR possible in a few showers. W
winds G25-35KT likely.
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. WNW-NW winds G15-30KT possible
Saturday night - strongest at eastern terminals.
.Sunday night...Low chance of MVFR in any isolated to scattered
snow showers.
.Monday-Tuesday...VFR. WNW-NW winds G15-25Kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions on the waters will be short lived this
evening as a potent low pressure system will impact the waters
late tonight through Friday night. Southeast winds will rapidly
increase in response tonight, becoming gale-force after
midnight. These gale force winds will persist through Friday as
low pressure remains to the west, with ocean seas rapidly
rising. There will be potential for isolated storm-force gusts
Friday afternoon, specifically on the waters east of Moriches
Inlet. Low pressure then moves over the waters Friday night,
allowing the gale-force winds to briefly decrease, though ocean
seas will remain elevated. Gales may return early Saturday
morning as winds pick up with the cold front passage. Have
extended the gale warning on the ocean waters through Friday
night.
Gale force wind gusts will then again be likely across the ocean
waters Saturday, with SCA gusts on the remainder of the waters as
strong cold air advection occurs over the waters and gradient remains
tight. Winds will be diminishing Saturday night into Sunday as the
low moves well to the northeast and high pressure builds to the
west. Gale force gusts will still be possible on the ocean waters,
especially the eastern zones, Saturday evening, with SCA gusts
ending on the remainder of the waters. Winds will be falling below
SCA levels late Saturday night into Sunday morning across all the
waters. Winds then remain below advisory levels into the midweek
period.
Ocean seas will be elevated, well above 5 feet, Saturday. Seas
gradually subside Saturday night into Sunday evening from west to
east, falling below SCA levels across the ocean waters late Sunday
into Sunday evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch remains in effect. A strong storm system will impact
the area beginning this evening and persisting into Friday night,
bringing a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall. Locally higher
amounts are possible and some locations could reach around 4 inches.
The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur early Friday morning through
Friday evening. Locally higher amounts of rain are possible.
Flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas is
possible. Minor river flooding is expected on fast responding
streams. The Passaic River at Pine Brook is forecast to go into
moderate flooding Friday night. In addition, flooding concerns
could be exacerbated along the coast if the heaviest rain
coincides with the Friday morning high tide.
No significant precipitation is forecast Saturday through the middle
of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding expected with the
Friday morning high tides. SE gales piling of water, and the
upcoming full moon on December 22, are the main culprits. Surge
of 1-2 ft needed for most locations to reach minor coastal
flood benchmarks and 2-3 ft for moderate coastal flood
benchmarks.
Based on recent tidal guidance performance, and expectation for
SE winds to strengthen right through the times of high tide, as
well as favorable wave action on S/SE facing coasts, have
leaned towards higher ESTOFS guidance. A bit concerned that ETSS
and SNAP-EX mean are higher than NYHOPS mean, which is
ingesting hydrologic inputs. Widespread moderate impacts are likely
for all but the north shore of LI and NYC, where S/SE flow
should minimize wave action.
Along the Atlantic shoreline, breaking surf of 12-15ft and
elevated water levels pose a risk for areas of dune erosion,
with localized washover possible Friday morning. 3 to 6 ft surf
at Orient Pt will pose a shoreline erosion threat. 3 to 4 ft
surf along the LI Sound CT shoreline will likely result in wave
splashover and beach erosion along the south shore of coastal
CT.
The second high tide cycle for Friday night is much lower than
the first one, with locations along the Great South Bay and SW
CT having potential for minor coastal impacts.
One more round of minor coastal flooding is possible on
Saturday morning. Not expecting moderate coastal flooding, but
it could be another widespread minor coastal flooding event.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record temperatures are possible for December 21 at the following
sites. NYC previously achieved a record high minimum of 51 and
a record high of 61 in 2013 that is not expected to be broken.
Precipitation record for December 21 are also possible.
High Minimum Temperatures for Friday, December 21:
Site Record Year Forecast
KEWR 47 1998 47
KBDR 43 1998 45
KLGA 50 2013 47
KJFK 46 1998 48
KISP 46 2013 47
Maximum Temperatures for Friday, December 21:
Site Record Year Forecast
KEWR 64 2013 63
KBDR 60 1957 59
KLGA 61 2011 62
KJFK 59 2011 61
KISP 59 1973 61
Precipitation Records for Friday, December 21:
Site Record Year
KEWR 2.00 1973
KBDR 1.49 1973
KNYC 2.49 1973
KLGA 1.92 1973
KJFK 1.32 1973
KISP 1.81 1973
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC Central Park winds are out of service until further notice.
Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ007>012.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
CTZ009-010.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
CTZ011-012.
NY...Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
NYZ079>081.
Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
NYZ072-073-078-176-177.
NJ...Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM EST this morning for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DS/BC
NEAR TERM...MD/JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...Maloit/PW
MARINE...JMC/DS/BC
HYDROLOGY...DS/BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...