High Wind in New Mexico, March 15 to 16, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
604 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough will move rapidly eastward across northern AZ
today and northern NM tonight. Light rain and elevation snow showers
are expected today and tonight in northwest and north central NM with
occasional mountain obscurations. Deepening surface low pressure in
southeastern CO today and strong winds aloft over NM will bring
strong to very strong west to west southwest winds to most of
northern and central NM. Sustained winds will range from 25 to 35
knots with gusts up to 45 knots this afternoon. Locally severe
turbulence and rotors will be possible this afternoon and evening
near and to the east of the mountains in northern and central NM. Winds
will remain strong tonight, as the upper level low to the east moves
more slowly eastward. While wind gusts across most of northern and
central NM will weaken to 25 to 30 knots, winds at KLVS and KTCC
could still gust to near 40 knots overnight.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A potent Pacific system will race east across the region today,
bringing a mix of showers, storms, very strong winds, areas of
blowing dust and dangerous fire weather conditions to much of New
Mexico. The strongest winds are forecast east of the central mountain
chain where potentially damaging wind gusts are likely. Very dry
conditions will follow on Friday and Saturday, with more dangerous
fire weather conditions likely across eastern portions of the state.
Another strong Pacific system will race east across the state early
Sunday, bringing similar conditions to today's system. Cooler
conditions are forecast Monday behind the departing system, but a
warming trend will take daytime temperatures back above normal
area wide by the middle of next week with much less wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong winds associated with the polar jet and an approaching upper
level trough are already beginning to spread over the state, with
the nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery showing well-
developed mountain wave clouds stretching from Arizona northeast
across New Mexico and into Colorado. The lee side trough continues to
deepen and is already down to 1000mb, but is modeled to continue
down to near 990mb by late this afternoon and be centered over
southeast Colorado. A fairly typical spring wind-maker is expected
today, with High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories already in effect.
There's more to this story, with blowing dust forecast across
eastern New Mexico this afternoon where a Red Flag Warning is also in
effect (see Fire Weather discussion below for details). Showers are
likely across the western and northern high terrain, with snow
generally above 7000 feet. Thunder is likely as well, with the latest
NAM showing LIs of -1 to -3 and sbCAPE of up to 500 J/kg. Wouldn't
be surprised at all to see a few gusts to warning threshold in the
wind advisory zones given potential enhancement from convection.
Although advisory level snowfall will likely be relegated to the
peaks and west facing slopes up high, will keep the winter weather
advisory for the northwest mountains. Strong to potentially damaging
winds will persist overnight across the peaks and will be forced down
along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains on the
backside of the departing trough. Dry and windy conditions will
continue into Friday, especially across the eastern plains where a
Fire Weather Watch is in effect.

Winds will get cranking again Saturday with a deepening lee side trough
as another, similar, upper level trough approaches from over California
and the Great Basin. More strong to potentially damaging winds are
forecast Sunday with the trough passage, along with the potential for
critical fire weather conditions across eastern New Mexico and more
showers across western portions of the state. The western and northern
high terrain will likely pile up a few inches of fresh snow Sunday
as this system looks to track slightly further south than today's.

Look for cooler conditions Monday to be followed by warming into mid
week with daytime temperatures back above normal area wide by
Wednesday. Differences between the 00z operational runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are leading to lower forecast confidence beyond Monday, but winds
look to be less of a factor through mid week.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NEW MEXICO TODAY, FRIDAY, AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND...

A fast-moving shortwave will move across northern AZ today and
across northern NM tonight. Light rain and elevation snow showers
will develop across northwestern and north central NM today. The
atmosphere will be unstable enough for isolated thunderstorms across
these areas through early this evening. The primary effect of this
storm system will be strong to very strong winds, as strong winds
aloft and a strong surface pressure gradient combine to produce west
to west southwest winds ranging between 25 and 40 mph with gusts to
around 55 mph. Relative humidity below 15 percent this afternoon and
early evening will be confined to the far eastern plains of NM, and
red flag warnings are in effect for FWZ104 and FWZ108 this afternoon
through early evening.

As the storm system moves eastward into the Central Plains Friday,
drier air behind the system will bring relative humidity below 15
percent across most of the eastern plains. Though the surface
pressure gradient and winds aloft will weaken significantly Friday,
west winds will generally range from 15 to 30 mph. Red flag criteria
will likely be reached in FWZ103, FWZ104 and FWZ108, and a fire
weather is in effect for these zones late Friday morning through
early evening.

Winds will become southwest Saturday, as an area of low pressure
moves southward into central CA and central NV. It will remain quite
dry across the eastern plains Saturday with relative humidity
falling below 15 percent in the afternoon. A weak surface trough in
eastern CO will cause southwest winds to increase to 15 to 25 mph
Saturday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will most
likely develop in east central and northeastern NM Saturday
afternoon. As the storm system to the northwest moves across
northern NM Sunday, chances for light precipitation will increase
across western and northern NM. West winds will increase across the
eastern plains, where windy conditions will be possible. With
increasing low level moisture expected to move across NM from the
west, critical fire weather conditions will be most likely in the
far eastern plains on Sunday afternoon.

It will continue to be quite dry in the eastern plains on Monday and
Tuesday. There is a good chance that winds will be less than 20 mph
across NM Monday. Some models are indicating that another trough
may move across northern NM Tuesday, bringing breezy to windy
conditions to the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon and the
possibility of critical fire weather conditions.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones...
NMZ502-505>508-512-518>522-524-525-527-528-530-535>538.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Friday for
the following zones... NMZ513>515.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ104-108.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ523-526-529-531>534-539-540.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ510.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
422 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

NMZ501>540-161100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
422 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to potentially damaging winds are forecast today as a potent
Pacific storm system races east into the southern Rockies. Areas of
blowing dust will result and bring reduced visibility to southern and
eastern portions of the state. Critical fire weather conditions are
likely later this morning through early evening across the eastern
plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely across west
central and north central New Mexico later today and will bring
several inches of snow to the high terrain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Critical fire weather conditions are likely Friday, Saturday and
Sunday across the eastern plains. Strong to potentially damaging
winds are possible across much of the area Sunday, when another
potent Pacific system races east across the state. In addition,
several inches of snow are possible across the western and northern
high terrain Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any strong winds or snowfall
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

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