A moist back door frontal boundary shifted southwest across eastern New Mexico on the 25th and set the stage for numerous showers and thunderstorms along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The combination of abundant moisture in place over the area with northwest flow aloft allowed several of these storms to become strong to severe over Mora County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A moist back door frontal boundary shifted southwest across eastern New Mexico on the 25th and set the stage for numerous showers and thunderstorms along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The combination of abundant moisture in place over the area with northwest flow aloft allowed several of these storms to become strong to severe over Mora County. The area from Guadalupita to Ojo Feliz, Buena Vista, and Sapello experienced heavy rainfall, large hail, severe winds, and minor damage to trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 10:58 AM MST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1158 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A slight downtick in convective coverage is expected this afternoon, before an uptick in activity along and east of the central mountain chain this evening. SCT to ISOLD showers and thunderstorms that form over the mountains this afternoon will generally track southeastward over adjacent lowlands about 10-20 mph. Wet microbursts are expected with erratic wind gusts potentially reaching 45 kt. Tonight, an upper level trough will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft while a moist back door cold front plunges southwestward into the state. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central mountain chain, with more isolated activity lingering further west. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...245 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Afternoon storms will once again favor the higher terrain before moving to the southeast to lower elevations of eastern and central New Mexico. Plenty of monsoon moisture remains allowing any passing storms to produce locally heavy rainfall. Burn scars and areas that have seen heavy rainfall in recent days will remain at risk of flash flooding. A backdoor front will keep temperatures close to normal, as well as supply more moisture to eastern and central New Mexico Thursday. Gusty winds will accompany the front as it squeezes through the gaps of the central mountains Thursday morning. Daily rounds of afternoon and evening storms will continue into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Remnant showers continue to drift southeast over portions of east- central NM, with a few showers also over the western highlands. These showers and accompanying overhanging high clouds will gradually subside toward sunrise. The high continues to shift west over southern CA today keeping NW flow over the state, allowing another round of afternoon showers and storms to form over the high terrain before moving southeast over central and eastern NM in the evening. Storm coverage will be a bit less today, but still expecting a healthy crop of storms to form with plenty of moisture and heating to work with. Faster storm motions are also expected and hence have foregone a Flash Flood Watch today, however recent burn scars will still be highly susceptible to flash flooding from any moderate to heavy rainfall. Areas that have seen plenty of rain in recent days where soils are plenty saturated will also be at higher risk for quick runoff and flash flooding. Models are still depicting a backdoor frontal bdry entering northeast NM late this evening, being a focal point for storms to form along over the northeast plains. This backdoor bdry will be enhanced from outflows pushing south and west through the central gaps of the central mtns Thursday morning. Moisture will be further replenished behind the front keeping daily rounds of storms forming each afternoon over the high terrain. With the upper high staying over southern CA and the lower CO River Basin, NW flow aloft will keep storm motion to the southeast from the central mtns eastward each evening. Any storms over the ABQ metro will likely form along outflow bdrys moving through the RGV later in the evening Thu and Fri. The weekend looks to have a potential down day with storm coverage Saturday, at least relatively speaking until another backdoor front arrives late Saturday into early Sunday supplying another fresh batch of moisture to eastern and central NM. PWATs and storm coverage trend up for Sunday heading into early next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to depict a more amplified trough setting up over the Great Plains for early next week, with more of a N-S flow regime setting up over NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Another large area of moderate to locally heavy rain shifted south through central and eastern NM the past 24 hrs. Widespread rainfall over the past 7 days has averaged 0.50" to 1" along the Continental Divide, the northern mountains, and the high plains of eastern NM. Locally heavier amounts of 2 to 3" have been observed in several areas. There will be little change to the pattern the next 7 to 10 days as upper level high pressure centers over Arizona and periodic back door cold fronts move into eastern NM. Temperatures will be close to normal across western NM and slightly below normal across the east. Min humidity will range from the teens across the west to the 20s and 30s across the east. Overnight recoveries will range from good across the west to excellent across the east. Drought conditions will likely be scaled back over the next week as soil moisture continues to improve. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 356 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018 NMZ501>540-261100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 356 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through the overnight. Rainfall could become heavy and this may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars and over recently rain soaked areas. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the week and weekend. Rainfall could become heavy and this may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars and over recently rain soaked areas. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. 24
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 200 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2018 NMZ515-252030- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- 200 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORA COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MDT... At 200 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Coyote Creek State Park, or 11 miles northeast of Mora, moving east at 5 mph. Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Ocate, Coyote Creek State Park, Ojo Feliz, Guadalupita and El Turquillo. Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area. && LAT...LON 3607 10531 3620 10525 3622 10501 3595 10507 TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 281DEG 6KT 3612 10522 DPorter
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 181 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:00 UTC.
3 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail up to the size of quarters with strong winds and heavy rainfall impacted Guadalupita. A motorcycle, RV, carport, and casita roof was damage from the storm. Damage amounts are estimated.
Peak wind gusts up to 60 mph in Ojo Feliz.
Hail up to the size of quarters in Buena Vista.
Peak wind gusts up to 65 mph produced minor damage to tree branches around Buena Vista.
Hail up to the size of nickels in Sapello.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 760078, 760083, 760081, 760084, 760082.