A weak surface trough along the Continental Divide combined with deep moisture over the region to produce scattered storms with locally heavy rainfall over Luna County.
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The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
A weak surface trough along the Continental Divide combined with deep moisture over the region to produce scattered storms with locally heavy rainfall over Luna County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 2:31 PM MST, 7 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 331 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An active monsoon pattern will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with another round expected on Monday. However, drier air will work into the region on Tuesday. After Tuesday, weather will become more June- like with isolated thunderstorms mainly in the Sacramento Mountains and Gila Region, and high temperatures increasing into the lower-100s in the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... Larger scale pattern has evolved as expected, with our split subtropical ridge still in place (though both the western and eastern centers are weakening), with a weak trough in between extending from the Texas Panhandle into south-central New Mexico. The inverted trough discussed yesterday has wound itself up over south Texas. While it is most readily apparent at 200 mb, there is a weak 500 mb reflection as well. An outflow boundary from Arizona that pushed into SW New Mexico around Midday has had disappointing results in terms of generating new convection in SW New Mexico. RAP analysis has a relative minimum of CAPE over Luna/Dona Ana Counties, but despite this, cumulus congestus is "clumping up" in southern Dona Ana and western El Paso counties. Thick anvil blowoff from earlier convection in the Sacramento Mountains is spreading into the El Paso and Las Cruces areas from the northeast. Despite this, outflow has managed to generate new convection from Orogrande eastward into the Otero Mesa, though this may be aided by the weak trough hanging back across the eastern half of New Mexico. It's a tough call, but El Paso still has a fair shot of getting decent storms this afternoon/evening. We'll hang on to this same pattern again tomorrow, but the NAM/GFS now suggest eastern parts of the CWA will be clipped by a weak vort lobe associated with the approaching inverted trough. Several of the HREF members pick up on this too, showing a more organized band of thunderstorms moving up from the SE during the early afternoon. But for the most part, this inverted trough will mainly benefit areas south of the border with precip. Drier continental air aloft will move in behind it, drying out most of the area beginning Tuesday and lasting through the week. There will be enough residual moisture around for isolated storms in the higher terrain of the Gila and Sacramentos, and maybe a lowland stray, but activity will be much diminished. Temperatures will slowly climb through the week, likely reaching the century mark in the lowlands (including ELP) Wed or Thu. Recycled moisture will try to work around from the north late in the week, but warm mid-level temperatures will limit instability. && .AVIATION...Valid 16/00-17/00Z. Moisture remains plentiful with scattered thunderstorms and showers thru the period for all terminals. Best chances for convection will be between 00Z and 06Z and again after 18Z. During these periods look for SCT -TSRA AND +TSRA/WIND VRB15G35KT with CIGS 040-060. Occasional MVFR ceilings and LCL VSBY 3-5SM AGL will also be possible with any heavier storms passing directly over individual terminals. Otherwise expect SCT060-080 SCT-BKN120 BKN-OVC250 to prevail outside of convective episodes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Abundant moisture is expected to remain in place through Monday with decent chances for wetting precipitation for all areas. A drying trend will begin on Tuesday as deeper moisture is pulled westward into Arizona and high pressure builds over the state. Circulation around the high will import drier air into the region and reduce chances for showers and thunderstorms to a more isolated and mainly mountain based occurrence for the remainder of the week. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to the upper teens by the middle of the week and continue into next weekend. Vent rates will continue be in the good to very good range. Non-thunderstorm induced easterly winds will remain light and generally under 10 mph. Wind gusts from thunderstorms will have speeds of 40 to 50 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 91 75 95 / 50 50 20 0 Sierra Blanca 69 89 69 93 / 40 60 20 0 Las Cruces 69 89 69 94 / 50 40 40 0 Alamogordo 69 90 70 93 / 40 40 20 0 Cloudcroft 53 68 52 73 / 40 70 40 10 Truth or Consequences 70 89 71 91 / 40 30 40 0 Silver City 62 81 65 88 / 50 60 50 30 Deming 67 88 67 93 / 40 40 30 0 Lordsburg 66 87 69 93 / 50 30 50 10 West El Paso Metro 72 89 72 93 / 60 50 30 0 Dell City 69 94 68 96 / 40 60 20 0 Fort Hancock 71 92 72 96 / 40 60 20 0 Loma Linda 66 87 67 91 / 60 60 20 0 Fabens 68 90 68 94 / 50 50 20 0 Santa Teresa 71 90 71 94 / 60 50 30 0 White Sands HQ 71 89 72 93 / 60 50 30 0 Jornada Range 67 90 68 94 / 60 40 30 0 Hatch 68 90 69 94 / 40 40 40 0 Columbus 69 88 69 94 / 40 30 30 0 Orogrande 72 91 72 94 / 50 50 20 0 Mayhill 57 77 57 82 / 40 60 40 10 Mescalero 57 77 57 84 / 40 70 40 10 Timberon 56 76 55 79 / 40 70 40 10 Winston 57 81 57 85 / 60 50 50 30 Hillsboro 64 87 64 91 / 50 50 40 20 Spaceport 66 89 66 92 / 40 40 30 0 Lake Roberts 53 80 52 86 / 50 60 60 30 Hurley 61 83 62 87 / 50 50 50 20 Cliff 58 86 61 91 / 40 50 60 20 Mule Creek 62 83 65 90 / 40 60 60 30 Faywood 63 85 63 89 / 40 50 40 20 Animas 67 88 67 94 / 50 40 60 0 Hachita 67 87 67 93 / 50 30 40 0 Antelope Wells 67 86 66 91 / 50 50 60 10 Cloverdale 64 82 63 90 / 50 60 60 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 25-Hardiman / 04-Lundeen
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1109 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-161715- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1109 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The monsoon will stay active today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening over most of the area. Localized torrential downpours leading to localized flooding will be the main threat from any storms, in addition to highly localized downburst wind gusts (around 50 mph), and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Small hail will be possible in higher elevation areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday The active monsoon pattern will continue on Monday, but a sharp decrease in thunderstorm activity is expected starting on Tuesday. The main threats will continue to be localized torrential downpours leading to localized flooding, with secondary risks being downburst wind gusts (around 50 mph), and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Temperatures will rise back into the upper-90s and low-100s over the lowlands towards the latter half of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected.
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:27 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Highway 26 was closed from mile marker 26 to 27 due to flooding. Radar estimates in the area were 3.5 to 3.7 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 773614.