Near record levels of moisture across New Mexico along with weak steering flow and strong afternoon heating led to the development of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. The first thunderstorms of the day developed around the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and resulted in flash flooding on the Ute Park burn scar.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Near record levels of moisture across New Mexico along with weak steering flow and strong afternoon heating led to the development of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. The first thunderstorms of the day developed around the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and resulted in flash flooding on the Ute Park burn scar. Heavy rainfall around Church Rock led to more flooding along State Road 566. The focus for flash flooding shifted into the late evening hours of the 15th when heavy thunderstorms impacted Socorro County. The area around San Antonio was particularly hard hit resulting in the closure of U.S. Highway 380.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 10:58 AM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1158 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 .UPDATE... Updated to include expansion of Flash Flood Watch over the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo's starting this evening into late tonight. A frontal boundary is expected to be enhanced by thunderstorm outflow over the CO Sangre's and will enhance thunderstorm coverage over the NM Sangre's later this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION...1149 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018... .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Abundant moisture and strong afternoon heating will lead to another crop of sct to nmrs SHRA/TSRA with locally heavy rainfall thru this evening. Storm motions will be slow toward the west-southwest north of I-40 and west-northwest south of I-40. Any direct hits will be capable of producing strong outflow wind gusts near 40 kt, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, and brief IFR cigs/vsbys in heavy rainfall. Guidance shows SHRA/TSRA tapering off across central and western NM aft 06Z but continuing across northeastern NM much of the night as a wind shift moves into the area. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, though storm coverage may not be as great across the north central and northeast New Mexico. Nonetheless, heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds will be possible from the strongest storms. Another active day is expected for Monday with flash flooding possible once again. Storm coverage will trend down for Tuesday through the end of the week as drier air moves into the state. Storms that do develop will favor the high terrain. Temperatures will trend upward through this period. && .DISCUSSION... Another crop of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with near record PWATS across portions of central and western NM. Some mid level drier air has worked into the northeast, and it is anticipated that storm coverage will diminish somewhat today over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains because of this. Additionally, it also seems like what weak storm motion there is, would take storms away from the Ute Park and Morris Creek burn scars. Though the threat is not zero, models indicate flash flooding would be less likely today than in past days. Therefore, will relegate today's Flash Flood Watch to portions of western NM and the south central mountains where PWATs are higher. One potential fly in the ointment, is a cold front that is expected to move down the plains of Colorado. If the frontal timing speeds up, the day shift will need to look at a potential expansion of the FFA. This front will be a cause for concern on Monday, if you believe the NAM. The NAM suggests the front, aided by convection, will push southward into NM around midnight tonight before getting hung up around I-40 across the plains early Monday. Near and behind this front would be a focus for thunderstorms, and with PWATs bouncing back up over an inch, this would spell concern for burn scars on the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos. Having said that, the GFS does not suggest that the front will make it into NM at all, or at least gets hung up around the NM/CO border. Thus, there are large discrepancies between the two models on QPF along and east of the Sangres and therefore, the potential impacts differ at this time. The ECMWF, however, sides a bit more with the NAM. Elsewhere, it looks like much of western NM will be active once again as an easterly wave crosses Mexico. Thus, expect more Flash Flood Watches for Monday. The easterly wave will actually usher in drier air from east to west on Tuesday as it continues westward. Thus, a significant downtick in activity is expected, and storms will tend to hug the higher terrain more. This trend will continue on Wednesday as the upper high also shifts back toward NM. By Thursday, the upper high will be squarely over NM, and no new moisture influx is apparent, as most of the monsoonal flow will be directed into AZ. Portions of western NM may see an increase in precipitation chances by Friday as the high shifts ever-so-slightly eastward, but the high looks to stick around through next weekend. With less storms in play, look for temperatures to trend upward, with triple digit heat returning for portions of the eastern plains Wednesday through at least Friday. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... Plentiful moisture over New Mexico will lead to another afternoon and evening of monsoon showers and thunderstorms. Light and variable winds aloft will result in slow and erratic storm motions, and potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Heavy rainfall is most likely, according to the latest models, over western and central New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible again on Monday over the west and central as well as the northeast, where forecast models indicate a frontal boundary will be located. High temperatures today and Monday will be near to below average with good to excellent overnight humidity recoveries. High pressure aloft is forecast to consolidate over the Great Basin and New Mexico Tuesday and expand through late week. This would result in a decrease in areal coverage of showers and storms, with the majority becoming located over and near the higher terrain. Daytime temperatures are forecast to warm to near or above average and humidities would trend drier, with minimum values falling into the teens. Overnight humidity recoveries diminish as well, but for the most part, remain good through the week. Localized fair to poor vent rates continue to be possible over portions of the west and central today through Tuesday. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ513>515. Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones... NMZ506-508-526. && 24
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 331 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 NMZ501>540-161200- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 331 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through this evening. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars across western New Mexico. Areas that have also seen heavy rainfall recently will also be more susceptible to flash flooding. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again on Monday. Slow storm motions and heavy rainfall may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn scars and within urban drainage systems. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. After Monday, storm coverage will decrease, though isolated locations may still receive heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 34
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 166 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:01 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flood waters running over SR-566 between mile markers 5 and 6.
NMDOT reported burn scar debris over U.S. Highway 64 between mile markers 301 and 303.
Flooding along Walnut Creek flowed over the on-ramp to Interstate 25 then over U.S. 380 in San Antonio. The exit ramp from Interstate 25 and U.S. Highway 380 was closed. Flood waters inundated several acres of farm land with debris from downed power poles. Two to three feet of water in San Antonio entered at least one home. Damage amounts of a very rough estimate.
Flash flooding within Box Canyon knocked out power to areas from Socorro to Magdalena. Damage amounts are estimated for power infrastructure.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 758474, 758475, 758479, 758480.