Abundant moisture in place across New Mexico with weak steering flow provided the necessary ingredients for locally heavy rainfall. S.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Abundant moisture in place across New Mexico with weak steering flow provided the necessary ingredients for locally heavy rainfall. A thunderstorm that drifted southeast across the Ute Park burn scar resulted in flash flooding along U.S. Highway 64 between Ute Park and Cimarron. Mud, debris, and ash crossed the highway between mile markers 300 and 301. Rocks, mud, and ash several inches deep was reported crossing the highway. There was no damage to infrastructure with this event.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 10:55 AM MST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1155 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE An active shower and thunderstorm pattern will continue over the next few days as abundant moisture remains in place over northern and central New Mexico. Storms will continue to initiate over the high terrain through the afternoon, gradually rolling off into adjacent lower elevations with new storms re-developing along outflow boundary collisions through the evening. Storms will move very slowly and erratically at less than 5 to 10 mph, producing heavy downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings/visibility to MVFR/IFR categories. Gusty downburst winds will impact areas under and near any showers/storms along with the possibility for small hail. Showers and storms will likely carry on well into the overnight hours, but coverage should decrease through early morning Friday. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...804 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018... .UPDATE... A quick update was just sent to the forecast to increase POPs in the Rio Grande valley and also the east central to southeastern plains where showers are in progress. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...257 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Deep layer monsoonal moisture will continue to increase across northern and central New Mexico today through Friday. Light winds aloft will produce slow storm motion, and storms producing heavier rainfall will have the potential to produce flash flooding today and tonight and likely again on Friday. Storm coverage will be scattered to numerous today and Friday. Central and western New Mexico will see at least scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, while coverage will decrease to isolated across the eastern plains. Daily thunderstorm activity is likely to continue into the middle of next week. Daytime temperature are expected to be slightly below normal through this weekend and then trend to near normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level low centered over west central NM/east central AZ today will produce a south to south-southwest flow aloft and will further increase mid and upper level moisture over NM. The GFS and NAM12 indicate that precipitable water values will peak above 1.2 inches this afternoon and evening. Steering flow for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be west to southwest at 5 to 10 knots for most of northern and central NM, however flow across portions of western NM near and beneath the upper level low are expected to be variable at 5 knots or less. Slow-moving thunderstorms in a moisture-rich environment this afternoon and evening will create the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially in the higher terrain in south central, west central and northern NM. A flash flood watch is in effect for these areas today from late morning through the late night hours after midnight. Shower and thunderstorm activity today through this evening will be scattered to numerous. High temperatures will be 5 to 12 degrees below normal today across western and central NM and near normal to 5 degrees below normal across eastern NM. A strong upper level high over the central Great Basin will build eastward over the Four Corners and far western CO Friday. The upper low will drift slowly to the southwest Friday and will be located over southwest NM by Friday evening. Precipitable water will increase slightly again Friday afternoon and evening and will range from 1.25 to 1.5 inches across the region. Models indicating slight to moderate instability by Friday afternoon, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will redevelop across the region. Storm motion may be even slower than today on Friday, and the threat for flash flooding will continue and likely expand into the valleys of central and western NM. High temperatures Friday will remain well below normal west and slightly below normal east. As the upper low moves slowly westward across southern AZ Saturday and Sunday, H5 heights will rise slightly across NM. High temperatures will trend slightly upward both days with highs near normal to slightly above normal east of the central mountains Sunday and not quite as cool to the west with highs generally 3 to 7 degrees below normal. Precipitable water values will decrease slightly this weekend, but will remain above 1.0 inch. Scattered afternoon and evening convection is expected across western and central NM with isolated activity in the eastern plains. The upper level high over the Great Basin will continue to expand eastward across NM and CO Monday through Thursday with daytime temperatures warming to near to slightly above normal by midweek. Though atmospheric moisture content will likely trend downward during this period, it will still be adequate to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. 28 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist environment and weak steering flow will lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day through the end of this week and into Sunday. Showers and storms will also linger through the nighttime hours. Cell motion today over the east and south will be generally to the north and east, while slow and erratic movement is likely over the northwest part of the state. Storms will also occasionally be driven by outflow boundaries. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with areas of flash flooding also expected each day through the end of the week, and recent wildfire burn scars will be most susceptible to flash flooding. Temperatures will change little from day to day, except for cooling effects from passing showers or storms. Highs will be near to below average with overnight lows near to above average through early next week. Overnight humidity recoveries will be good to excellent. Some drying in the east indicated for next Monday and Tuesday as the dominant portion of the upper high located over the Great Basin expands or recenters over eastern New Mexico. This puts the focus for showers and storms over central and western New Mexico. Mid to late next week, the upper high center gradually drifts back toward Utah while a cold front drops into eastern New Mexico, creating more widespread convection. The subtle shift in the upper pattern though, allows for some higher Haines values over northwest New Mexico next Wednesday and Thursday. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ508>515-526. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 258 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 NMZ501>540-131100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 258 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the northern mountains and portions of southwest and south central New Mexico are expected late this morning through late this evening. Stronger thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and localized areas of flash flooding, especially near recent and older burn scars. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely Friday. Storm motions will be slow and heavy rainfall is anticipated. This may lead to areas of flash flooding, especially near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. Scattered storms across central and western New Mexico will continue the threat of flash flooding Saturday and Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. 28
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 126 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 NMZ513-515-122000- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- 126 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM MDT... At 126 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Ute Park, or 27 miles east of Questa. This storm was nearly stationary and just to the northwest of the Ute Park burn scar. Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Eagle Nest, Cimarron Canyon State Park, Elizabethtown and Ute Park. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3655 10505 3650 10516 3662 10529 3670 10509 TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 153DEG 2KT 3657 10514 34
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 239 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:45 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Torrential rainfall forced mud, rocks, and debris across roadways. Law enforcement reported damage to dirt roads with significant erosion in the area. Damage amounts are a very rough estimate.
Mud, rocks, and debris flowing over U.S. Highway 64 several inches deep between mile markers 300 and 301. Road is closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 756872, 756824.