Scattered thunderstorms developed over East Central Colorado during the afternoon. One of the thunderstorms produced winds strong enough to blow down several power poles near Kirk.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed over East Central Colorado during the afternoon. One of the thunderstorms produced winds strong enough to blow down several power poles near Kirk.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 4:38 PM MST, 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 538 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 Main issues of concern will be the chance of thunderstorms and how much rainfall and severe weather these storms will produce. Nearly stationary front just to the northwest of our area with surface/lee trough just to our west. Small scale mid level circulation is just to our west with weak but diffluent flow over the area as well. Good lapse rates also reside over the area. Analysis and satellite show a moist air mass through 500 mb over the entire area. Thunderstorms have begun to develop over the western portion of the area where all the best of the above parameters overlap. Expect development to continue with coverage increasing over the northern and western areas. Expect this area to ever so slowly work its way across the area through the night. Do not expect these storms to completely go away due to the continued weak lift and instability in place. Highest pops look to remain over the western and northern portions of the area. Dcape is currently 1000 and above, especially over the western half of the area. Damaging winds are occurring with storms to our west. So have confidence that damaging winds will be the main threat. Per reasoning above combined with slow storm movement and that movement parallel to the front, expect training and locally heavy rainfall. For Friday, forecast is a little more problematic due to uncertainty of the overnight and early morning convection/mesoscale affects will have on the environment. Weak shortwave trough, mesoscale boundaries, low level upslope flow, and a front moving in will keep thunderstorms going through the day. There should be ongoing storms as the day begins. The coverage should increase in coverage through the day due to increasing instability and lift. The risk for severe looks to be a little less but still possible. The PWs remain the same, and could once again have locally heavy rainfall possible, especially for the southeast half of the area. Of minor note, there looks to be more factors in place to limit the warming that will occur. Did lower high temperatures but these temperatures could still be lowered more. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 105 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 Friday night through Saturday night...latest 12z guidance northeast to southwest oriented axis of moisture in the 700-500mb layer from Haigler to Flagler and Kit Carson eastward supporting slight chance to chance pops for thunderstorms through midnight slowly moving east after midnight and out of the area by sunrise. Plenty of moisture per precipitable water forecasts (1.5 to 2 inches) so locally heavy rainfall possible. Low clouds and some fog a few hours before sunrise through mid morning per model boundary layer humidity and visibility forecasts. By late afternoon a sunny to mostly sunny sky expected. A dry forecast continues through Saturday night. Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night in the 60s, could see a 70 degree reading around Hill City. High temperatures Saturday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Sunday...this forecast is weighted toward the GFS which brings a east to northeast winds into the area during the day along with increasing moisture in the 850-500mb column from northwest to southeast. The NAM keeps the moisture axis generally along and west of the CO/KS border during the day. Precipitation chances look to be spotty at this point. Low to medium confidence in afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. If the NAM verifies temperatures will be about 5F warmer putting a few locations at 100 degrees. Thunderstorm chances continue overnight with lows in the 60s. Monday...forecast area under northwest flow aloft with the GFS bringing another batch of moisture through the area during the night where highest pops are advertised, otherwise spotty chances. Precipitable water remains in the 1.5 to 2 inch range supporting a threat for locally heavy rainfall. An easterly component to the sfc wind and cooler 850mb temperatures support highs generally in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday through Thursday...GFS and ECMWF eventually agree on upper level ridging to rebuild over Colorado and Utah with our area under northwest flow aloft. Timing of weather disturbances too difficult to pinpoint but at least slight chance to low chance pops through the period. Afternoon temperatures generally in the mid 80s to low 90s each day with lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus will be the scattered thunderstorm activity that will progress east tonight. The primary threat with these storms will be thunderstorm wind gusts. KMCK could be at risk for storms moving near the site after 6z. Friday the thunderstorm risk will be southeast of the sites, except for a few hours in the afternoon for KMCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JTL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131200- Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins- Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove- Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow- 1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 /1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Scattered thunderstorms will develop along and west of the Colorado border this afternoon and slowly move east through the rest of the night. A few of these storms become severe along and west of a line from Burlington to Saint Francis to Benkelman. The main severe threat will be damaging winds. A more widespread threat with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly Friday afternoon and evening across much of the area. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required this afternoon.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018
COZ090-NEZ079-122115-
Yuma County CO-Dundy NE-
300 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN YUMA AND
NORTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...
At 300 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Wray, moving north at 30 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Alvin.
LAT...LON 4042 10205 4035 10205 4035 10185 4014 10190
4014 10214 4042 10218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 181DEG 25KT 4023 10202
JRMSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 413 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 COZ092-122230- Cheyenne County CO- 413 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 430 PM MDT... At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles southwest of Kit Carson, or 33 miles west of Cheyenne Wells, moving north at 30 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Kit Carson and Wild Horse. LAT...LON 3887 10275 3861 10281 3862 10306 3887 10310 TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 181DEG 24KT 3864 10293 JRM
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 418 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 COZ091-092-122245- Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO- 418 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 445 PM MDT... At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18 miles south of Vona, or 18 miles south of Seibert, moving north at 10 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central Colorado. LAT...LON 3895 10266 3897 10289 3914 10291 3911 10259 TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 184DEG 10KT 3904 10278 JRM
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:40 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several power poles near the intersection of CR R and CR 3.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 772979.