A slow-moving upper level wave over southern California spread a deep tap of sub-tropical moisture northeastward into the southwest United States. This system delivered the most significant precipitation to New Mexico in over four months.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A slow-moving upper level wave over southern California spread a deep tap of sub-tropical moisture northeastward into the southwest United States. This system delivered the most significant precipitation to New Mexico in over four months. Rain developed quickly over southeastern Arizona early on the 14th then spread into much of central and western New Mexico through the 14th and 15th. Temperatures were warm ahead of this system forcing snow levels above 7,000 feet. Widespread precipitation amounts between one half inch and one inch were reported along and west of the Central Mountain Chain. Snowfall totals between six and 10 inches were common across the higher terrain. This event was significant enough to knock the driest start to a water year to fifth place at the Albuquerque Sunport. Strong winds also accompanied this system across the south central high terrain. Ruidoso reported a peak wind gust to 66 mph and the Dunken area hit 60 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 4:45 PM MST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 445 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Southwest winds aloft tonight will strengthen ahead of an upper level trough in southern CA/western AZ. Subtropical moisture will be transported across western and central NM ahead of this storm system. Mountain obscurations will become widespread this evening after 03Z across the mountains in western and central NM. Rain and elevation snow are expected from the eastern foothills of the central mountains westward to the AZ border tonight through 15Z Thursday. Ceilings at the lower elevation terminals will fall into the MVFR category, generally 015-030, around or shortly after 06Z. At KTCC and KLVS west southwest winds will gust to 25 knots overnight, while winds at KSRR may gust above 55 knots at times. In western and central NM, ceilings will improve to VFR by mid morning, as deepest layer moisture moves southward. West southwest winds will gust to around 35 knots Thursday at KLVS and KTCC. 28 && .PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018... ...ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS HIGHER PEAKS ELSEWHERE... .SYNOPSIS... Rich subtropical moisture will surge northeastward across New Mexico tonight and Thursday with accumulating precipitation along and west of the central mountain chain. A few to several inches of snow is expected in the northern mountains, and across higher peaks of the remainder of the high terrain. In addition, strong southwest winds are expected in the south central mountains tonight and Thursday. Periods of rain and high elevation snow will persist across south central and southwest areas Thursday night through Friday night, while expanding to areas east of the south central mountains as the moisture plume lingers there and a back door cold front arrives. After drier and warmer weather Saturday, another disturbance crossing from the southwest will bring a chance of rain showers to southern areas Sunday. Then, an upper level trough will cross from the northwest Monday and Tuesday with cooler temperatures and a chance for wintry precipitation over northern and western areas. && .DISCUSSION... A closed upper level low pressure system off the S CA coast has already begun to steer deep subtropical moisture northeastward across AZ and NM. Precipitation will increase in coverage along and west of the central mountain chain tonight, as the upper low weakens while ejecting northeastward toward the Four Corners causing moisture to to deepen further. Temperatures at 700 mb are expected to bottom out around -4C tonight across the northern mountains, and near 0C across the southern high terrain. That's cold enough for the northern mountains to accumulate a few to several inches of snow. With this forecast package we will expand the Winter Weather Advisory to the Jemez Mountains, as well as the west slopes and higher peaks of the Sangre de Cristos. Elsewhere across the high terrain accumulating snow should remain near and above 9000 feet. Since this very high terrain snowfall is only expected over a small geographical area, we will issue an SPS to draw attention to several inches of snow accumulation there. In addition, wind gusts may peak near and over 60 mph at times tonight in the south central mountains as the subtropical jet stream crosses with 700 mb winds from 55 to 70 kt. The moisture plume will shift east of the northern mountains Thursday night, while lingering across our southern tier of zones through Friday night. This will keep rain and high terrain snow in the forecast there. Precipitation will also spread to lower elevations east of the south central mountains as a back door cold front arrives Thursday night. Easterly upslope flow across southeast areas may drop temperatures enough for a rain, snow and sleet mix Friday night. There is a potential that some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may develop, but ice accumulations probably won't be significant. After drier and warmer weather on Saturday, the 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF suggested another weak disturbance may lift northeastward across the southern tier of zones with some light rain showers on Sunday. However, the 18Z GFS has already waffled to a drier solution during this period, shaking our confidence some. A colder upper level trough is forecast to cross from the northwest early in the coming work week with the potential for fairly widespread snow across western and northern areas. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... A deep tap of subtropical moisture surging northeastward from the Baja region will produce a widespread wetting rainfall event for the lower elevations of central and western NM tonight and Thursday. Temperatures will be cold enough in the high terrain for several inches of snowfall above 7500 feet, especially the northern mts where 6 to 10 inches is possible. Winds will also be ripping across ridge tops overnight as a 70-90 knot mid level jet streak moves overhead. Windy conditions will then spread into the east-central and northeast plains Thursday but with less intensity. Meanwhile, the focus for precipitation Thursday will shift to west facing slopes along and south of the I-40 corridor as drier air sags into northwestern NM. A back door cold front will slide into eastern NM Thursday night and trend temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal Friday. This front will also focus the main area of precip into southeastern NM. Drier air sliding into northern NM will continue to trend min humidities lower with temperatures closer to normal. Min humidity and overnight recoveries will be regulated by better soil moisture and snowmelt through Saturday morning. Saturday will become a transition day to drier, warmer, west-southwest flow over the entire area. The next upper level disturbance will approach from the northwest Sunday and Monday and force stronger southwest winds over all of NM. Temps will trend 10 to 20 degrees above normal with sub-critical humidity and critical fire weather conditions possible. Models are then hinting at a very cold storm system shifting across northern NM in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame with more snow possible. Guyer && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Clouds will thicken and lower today as a deep tap of subtropical moisture surges northeast ahead of an approaching upper wave. Winds will turn southwest and increase all areas with strong southwest winds likely over the high terrain and northeast NM thru 00Z. Winds will then focus over the southern high terrain and eastern NM aft 00Z as a 70-90 kt mid level jet screams across southern NM. Gusts up to 60 kt are possible around KSRR. VFR conditions thru 00Z will then trend toward MVFR for all central and western NM terminals by 03Z. Stratiform rain will favor west and southwest facing slopes with moderate to lcl heavy snow in the high terrain above 8500 feet. A slow improvement to borderline VFR/MVFR is expected aft 10Z as winds turn more westerly and drier air arrives from the northwest. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Thursday for the following zones... NMZ526-540. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Thursday for the following zones... NMZ510>514. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 417 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 NMZ501>540-151200- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 417 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A low pressure system will hover offshore of California today before moving inland over the American Southwest tonight through Thursday and Thursday night. Strong winds aloft will precede this feature with windy conditions impacting northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Even stronger, and potentially damaging winds will then shift to areas along and east of the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains tonight where occasional gusts of 55 to perhaps 65 mph will be possible. Precipitation will also increase over New Mexico late today into tonight with a few inches of snow expected over the higher elevations, mostly above 8,000 to 10,000 feet. This will include areas in the San Juan/Tusas mountains near the New Mexico-Colorado border and also very high elevation areas within the Gila and South Central mountains. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Strong to damaging winds over the South Central mountains will slowly decrease into the late morning and early afternoon Thursday, but breezy to windy conditions could redevelop along and east of the Sangre de Cristos farther north. A few more inches of snow will continue to accumulate over the higher elevations through the day Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any strong wind gusts or snowfall through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 52
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 419 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 NMZ506-508-521-151200- West Central Mountains-Southwest Mountains- Sandia/Manzano Mountains- 419 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018 A storm system over southern California will race toward the four corners area tonight and Thursday, bringing a good supply of moisture with it. This will finally bring widespread precipitation to western and central new Mexico tonight into Thursday. Snow levels will be pretty high, especially over the Sandia/Manzano Mountains and Southwest Mountains, dropping to 8000 feet by late tonight. A few inches of snow will accumulate near 9000 and several inches near 10000 feet. Across the West Central Mountains the snow level will drop to 7000 feet, with accumulations of a few inches possible above 7500 feet. Slippery and slushy road conditions will be possible in these areas through Thursday morning. This includes Interstate 40 near the Continental Divide and portions of U.S. Highways 60 and 180 in Catron County. Allow extra time to reach your destination and make alternate plans if possible. For the latest road conditions, visit nmroads.com, dial 511, or 1.800.432.4269. 40/44
3 high wind, 1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
SNOTELs and the Santa Fe Ski Basin picked up between 10 and 13 inches of heavy snow. This was a rather wet snowfall for the higher elevations as snow ratios were less than 10:1.
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport reported sustained wind speeds between 40 mph and 47 mph for nearly ten hours.
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport reported peak wind gusts between 58 mph and 66 mph for several hours.
The Dunken RAWS reported a peak wind gust to 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 731179, 730612, 730613, 730614.