Flash Flood and Hail in New Mexico, August 1, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
414 AM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will bring seasonably warm weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through early next week.
However sufficient moisture will flow into the region for a few
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms most of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large upper high was centered over central Arizona this morning
with system showing little movement through Friday. This pattern
will allow a series of weak short waves to move southward into
New Mexico and west Texas the next several days. Conversely
associated weak large scale subsidence will exist across much of
the CWA...especially areas east of the Rio Grande. At the surface
the typical large thermal heat low covering the western United
States will combine with high pressure east of the Rockies to
force moist air in the lower boundary layer with dewpoints mostly
staying above 50 F. This will keep air mass unstable with CAPE's
around 500 to 1000 J/kg and with higher values mostly high
mountains and western zones. Overall expect this situation to
result in mainly mountain area thunderstorms developing in the
afternoon with activity spreading to the lowlands in the late
afternoon and evening via outflow boundaries and passing
disturbances aloft moving north to south. With precipitable water
mostly above an inch except locally heavy rains to be primary
hazard. However DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg indicate potential
for isolated damaging downbursts with hail also possible for areas
with higher instability.

Sunday through Tuesday upper high center drifts into New Mexico
before shifting into the southern Utah vicinity. Associated
subsidence plus inflow of warmer more stable continental air aloft
from the east and northeast will inhibit convection and cause
seasonably warm mostly dry weather across the CWA early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 01/12z-02/12z.
A few areas of IFR or MVFR ceilings and visibility in showers and
thunderstorms mainly from 20z-03z. Several storms may produce
wind gusts to 60 kt. Otherwise mostly VFR conditions with skies
SCT-BKN060-100 and surface winds around 5-15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will bring seasonably warm weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through early next week.
However sufficient moisture will flow into the region for a few
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms most of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 96  74  99  74 /   0  20   0  30
Sierra Blanca           94  70  96  71 /   0  20  20  20
Las Cruces              93  69  96  69 /   0  30   0  40
Alamogordo              93  70  94  70 /  10  40  10  40
Cloudcroft              71  54  73  55 /  40  50  30  50
Truth or Consequences   92  69  94  70 /  30  40  20  50
Silver City             86  63  89  63 /  40  50  40  60
Deming                  94  69  97  69 /  10  40  10  40
Lordsburg               93  70  95  70 /  20  40  30  50
West El Paso Metro      95  73  98  73 /   0  20   0  30
Dell City               96  71  99  71 /   0  30  20  30
Fort Hancock            97  72 100  74 /   0  20  10  20
Loma Linda              92  68  93  69 /   0  20  10  30
Fabens                  96  71  99  72 /   0  20   0  30
Santa Teresa            94  72  97  72 /   0  20   0  30
White Sands HQ          93  70  95  71 /   0  40   0  40
Jornada Range           94  67  96  69 /   0  40   0  40
Hatch                   94  68  96  69 /   0  40   0  50
Columbus                95  71  97  71 /   0  20  10  30
Orogrande               94  71  96  72 /   0  40  10  40
Mayhill                 79  58  81  59 /  40  50  30  50
Mescalero               80  59  82  59 /  40  50  30  50
Timberon                79  59  80  60 /  40  50  30  50
Winston                 86  59  88  60 /  50  50  40  60
Hillsboro               88  65  93  66 /  30  50  40  60
Spaceport               92  67  95  69 /  10  40  10  50
Lake Roberts            84  57  87  58 /  50  50  50  60
Hurley                  88  64  91  64 /  40  50  30  50
Cliff                   92  63  94  65 /  40  50  40  50
Mule Creek              90  64  93  65 /  30  50  40  50
Faywood                 89  65  92  66 /  30  50  30  50
Animas                  94  70  96  69 /  20  30  30  50
Hachita                 94  69  96  69 /  10  30  20  40
Antelope Wells          93  67  95  67 /  10  30  20  40
Cloverdale              89  66  92  65 /  10  30  30  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash