Drought in New Mexico, April 1 to 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1129 PM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
High cirrus will continue to stream over NM tonight, with calm winds.
A backdoor front will ooze back south and west into eastern NM, with
increasing moisture behind the front lined roughly from KRTN to KROW
allowing for MVFR/IFR cigs from 09Z-15Z. Low clouds will burn off
after sunrise. Have kept mention of MVFR/IFR cigs out of KROW
thinking the frontal bdry should stay east of town. Winds turn
southerly Sunday behind the backdoor bdry at KTCC, KROW, KCVN, KCVS,
and KCAO, with breezy westerly winds elsewhere across the state.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
West flow aloft tonight and Sunday will continue to bring high clouds
to northern and central New Mexico. Despite scattered to broken high
clouds, high temperatures Sunday will be well above normal, except in
the northeast plains where a weak cold front will keep highs near to
slightly below normal. A strong surface trough in West Texas,
combined with strengthening winds aloft, will generate breezy to
locally windy west winds on Monday. High temperatures will be above
normal across the entire area Monday. Downsloping winds east of the
central mountains will push temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. A weak upper level trough will move across southern Colorado
Tuesday, and light precipitation is expected across the north central
mountains and adjacent highlands Tuesday into Tuesday night. A
Pacific cold front and a backdoor cold front will move across New
Mexico Tuesday, causing high temperatures to fall to below normal in
the northeast plains and to near normal across the rest of the area.
Weak high pressure aloft will allow temperatures to rebound
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs Thursday will be above normal across
the entire region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A flat ridge across the Desert Southwest will continue to stream
high clouds across NM tonight and Sunday. The high clouds will
prevent strong radiational cooling tonight, and low temperatures
across most northern and central NM will be 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. A cold front stalled across the far eastern plains tonight
will keep temperatures cooler in that area with low temperatures
near normal overnight. The cold front will remain nearly stationary
on Sunday, causing high temperatures to range from near normal to
slightly below normal in the far eastern plains. To the west of the
front, increasing boundary layer mixing heights and west winds 15 to
25 mph will effect low level warming with high temperatures 5 to 15
degrees above normal.

A well defined trough will move rapidly southeastward from the
Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies Monday. Height gradients
aloft will increase Monday in response to the track of the upper
level trough to the north. Strong lee side cyclogenesis is projected
to form in northeast CO Monday, and surface low pressure will likely
fall below 990 millibars. This very strong surface low in conjunction
with strengthening winds aloft will generate breezy to locally windy
west winds across northern and central NM Monday afternoon and
evening. A wind advisory may need to be issued for much of northern
and central NM for Monday afternoon and early evening. Mid level
drying Monday will create stronger insolation, which combined with
deep boundary layer mixing, will push afternoon temperatures well
above normal. High temperatures Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal west of the central mountains. To the east of the central
mountains, downsloping west winds will enhance warming, and high
temperatures will be 8 to 16 degrees above normal. A few locations
in Chaves County could reach 90 degrees Monday afternoon.

The shortwave trough to the north will race across southern CO
Tuesday. This system will be lacking deep layer moisture, and both
the GFS and ECMWF have backed off on precipitation amounts in far
north central NM and adjacent highlands. This forecast drops liquid
equivalent amounts to less than 0.05 of an inch for these areas
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The much higher probability is the
passage of a Pacific cold front in western and central NM and a
backdoor cold front in the eastern plains during the day on Tuesday.
Cold advection behind the backdoor front will be much stronger than
the cold advection behind the Pacific front. As a result, highs in
the northeast plains will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal Tuesday,
while highs across the remainder of the region will be 3 degrees
below normal to 5 degrees above normal.

Flat ridging aloft and increasingly drier mid level air will
infiltrate the region Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern will
initiate a warming trend across the area. Low level colder air in
the eastern plains will only be slowly scoured out Wednesday, and
highs will still be near normal to slightly below normal. Highs in
western NM Wednesday will rebound to 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Increasing surface west winds and higher boundary mixing layers will
scour out the cooler air in the east on Thursday, and nearly all of
northern and central NM will have high temperatures 5 to 12 degrees
above normal.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of upper level disturbances will pass north of the forecast
area over the next week resulting in at least gusty conditions and
some locally critical fire weather concerns each day. The potential
exists for critical fire weather conditions to become widespread on
Monday.

The first disturbance will exit the central Rockies onto the Great
Plains Sunday strengthening westerly flow aloft and downslope flow
across much of the east. The exception will be the far eastern
plains where the back door cold front that arrived today should
remain entrenched with higher humidities and poor ventilation.
Further west, humidities will plummet below 15% most places and
Haines will generally range from 5 to 6, as temperatures climb
around 6 to 12 degrees above normal. Readings behind the front
should range from near normal to as low as 6 degrees below normal.
Locally critical fire weather conditions on Sunday should favor the
Clines Corners region.

Strong west and southwest winds will develop areawide below
significant snowpack on Monday as the flow aloft strengthens in
response to an upper level trough crossing the central Rockies and
an impressive 988 mb surface low over southeast Colorado. Gusts from
35 to 45 mph are expected central and west, with gusts up to 55 mph
along and east of the central mountain chain. An unstable atmosphere
will also be in place with high temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above
normal areawide, Haines Indices mostly in the 5 to 6 range (except
for some 4s northwest), and strong atmospheric mixing. Humidities
will also plummet well below 15 percent, except for higher readings
at elevations above 8,000 ft in the northern mountains. The critical
conditions will start early and end late in the east, while
occurring during the afternoon until sunset in the west.

In the wake of the upper level trough a cold front will dive
southeastward through the state early Tuesday causing high
temperatures to fall around 5 to 25 degrees below Monday's readings,
and humidities to climb a few to 15 percent; except for some lower
humidities across the North Central Mountains and Northwest Plateau.
Nonetheless, humidities from Clines Corners west and northwestward
will again fall below 15 percent on Tuesday.  Northwest winds on the
Northwest Plateau should become breezy enough for locally critical
fire weather conditions around Farmington.

Locally critical fire weather conditions should favor the northeast
plains Wednesday, then the Clines Corners region Thursday and
Friday. An upper level trough in northwest flow aloft will clip
northeast NM Thursday night, when it will also send a cold front
southeastward through the state.  The front will cause temperatures
to fall a few degrees areawide from Thursday's readings, but highs
will remain a few to 10 degrees above normal.  Humidities should
rise above 15 percent north of I-40, with some sub 15% readings
along and south of I-40 Monday afternoon.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ101>109.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
332 AM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018

NMZ501>540-011100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
332 AM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and
central New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Stronger winds will return to New Mexico on Monday with occasional
gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible in some central and eastern areas of
the state. In addition to the windy conditions, low humidity and
warmer than average temperatures will combine to create critical fire
weather conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

52