Drought in Texas, April 1 to 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over the next several hours.
Confidence is higher at CDS than PVW and LBB for low clouds.
Included 1000ft ceilings but IFR is possible. Should improve to
VFR after 15Z. Breezy northeast winds will decrease through the
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place through the first part of tonight. A cold
front is slowly pushing its way across the terminals this evening
turning winds northeast to east and increasing speeds to around
15 knots.

Overnight tonight into Sunday morning remains uncertain. Low
clouds are expected to spread over all three TAF sites well behind
the initial frontal passage. Onset of clouds will be just after
midnight at KLBB and KPVW and a few hours later at KCDS. Ceiling
heights are the main uncertainty at this time. How low they will
fall is the question. Will keep right at the IFR/MVFR crossover
for now but this could change as the clouds get closer to the
area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A non-spring day will return to the region on Easter Sunday. A cold
front was slowly moving through the southern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon. However, cooler air and low stratus were lagging well
behind the initial wind shift. But the cooler air and low status
will make their way southward overnight tonight. Stratus will not
likely budge on Sunday keeping temperatures unseasonably cool. There
will likely be a very sharp gradient in day time temperatures from
southeastern New Mexico just across the state line in West Texas.
Low stratus and the front will continue to ooze through overnight
Sunday. Some models are indicating some precipitation out of this
shallow moisture. Drizzle is the most likely outcome with very
little in the way of lift and the shallowness of the moisture. Any
areas for precipitation would be favored off the caprock.

Strong lee surface cyclogenesis will develop on Monday in eastern
Colorado under zonal flow aloft. A sharp dryline will develop with
clearing skies by the afternoon. The surface ridge will be centered
well to the east, over the lower Mississippi River valley by Monday
afternoon. This could lead to a quick turn around back to elevated
or critical fire weather conditions on the caprock for Monday
afternoon. A trough swinging across the northern Plains will send a
second cold front through on Tuesday. This front will pack some
stronger pressure rises behind it bringing strong northerly winds
during the day on Tuesday behind the front. This front will push all
the way into the Gulf of Mexico which will harm chances of
significant moisture returning for Thursday. We will still likely
see a dryline develop on Thursday but translating into convection
chances are looking less likely. The GFS continues to favor a faster
timing on a trough at 250mb with a slower speed in the ECMWF.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

99/99/08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
307 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018

TXZ021>044-012015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
307 PM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Warm temperatures and strong winds will combine to create elevated
to critical fire weather conditions on Monday afternoon for the
South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for these areas.