NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 15, 6:03 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 6:03 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
703 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system and its associated fronts
will affect the region tonight and Monday. The low will move away
allowing high pressure to build over the area for Monday night and
through Tuesday. A low pressure system and its associated fronts
will affect the area Wednesday through Thursday. An upper low will
remain over the region into Friday. High pressure will build down
across the area from Canada beginning Friday night and remaining
into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
For the 630 PM update, continued to ramp up the PoPs associated with
an area of showers quickly lifting northward. This appears to be
associated with the arrival of a low-level jet. This becomes less
organized across portions of Delmarva however some additional
showers are expected to continue to develop from the south. A
mesoanalysis shows no instability across our area, therefore delayed
the mention of thunder across the central to southern areas. The
thunder mention may have to be delayed further with subsequent
updates. Hourly temperatures were adjusted down a little for
several areas this evening (low temperatures lowered
accordingly). The temperature difference from this time
yesterday is about 40-50 degrees for many areas! Wind gusts
were also increased some as efficient mixing continues. Mount
Pocono is down to 32 degrees however mesonet sites are pretty
much above freezing, although there still remains a low risk of
some light ice accretion this evening across the highest
terrain of the southern Poconos.
Otherwise, when the backdoor front reverses and how far it surges
north during tonight are the main forecast concerns.
Through this evening, expect the area to remain on the poleward side
of the front, with continued cloudy/cold/damp conditions with strong
east-northeast winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. However, as the front
retreats northward overnight, should see winds beginning to decrease
(at least somewhat) in closer proximity to the front. This will also
allow for a highly non-diurnal trend in temperatures, likely rising
through the night south of the I-78 corridor and staying steady or
slowly rising to the north.
Models are honing in on a solution regarding the development of
precipitation in advance of the cold front approaching the area late
tonight and tomorrow. With substantial large-scale lift via warm-air
advection aided by a strong/strengthening synoptically-forced low-
level jet stream, considerable differential cyclonic vorticity
advection downstream of a potent vort max pivoting to a more
northwest-to-southeast orientation (i.e., a trough axis becoming
negatively tilted), and improving jet coupling and attendant upper-
level divergence, precipitation continue to break out.
Hi-res models depict a rather showery look to the precip, and
elevated instability will be increasing some (aided by cooling aloft
via isentropic ascent). Some thunder may develop by later this
evening, generally along/south of the I-78 corridor. Given the
strong winds aloft, cannot rule out some gusty winds with any
showers, but the stable layer north of the boundary should preclude
much of a severe threat.
This, of course, may change as the backdoor front retreats
northward. High-resolution models place the front in portions of
Delmarva and far southern New Jersey near daybreak, but do not have
a lot of confidence on this placement. Models tend to progress these
fronts too far northward, and suspect this is the case here as well.
Did slow its progress somewhat from hi-res model consensus
(HRRR/RAP, NAM Nest, WRF-ARW/NMM, RGEM), but not a whole lot from
the previous forecast (not enough confidence to do that yet). Given
its general placement, including severe wording (damaging winds) as
a possibility along/south of the Mason-Dixon Line late tonight
(gusty winds to the north). The low-CAPE/high-shear setups are
always a challenge, and the placement of the front and the quite
marginal surface-based instability are certainly adding to the
challenge. Nevertheless, with shear profiles exceptionally good
(given the pronounced veering in the low levels downstream of the
front and resultant very large low-level SRH), sufficient
instability would lead to potential for locally severe storms.
Finally, QPF looks quite substantial during the 06Z to 12Z period,
especially near/northwest of the urban corridor, where 6-hour totals
of 0.75-1.5 inches are likely, with locally higher totals probable
with the strongest convective cores and with any training convection
that occurs. See the hydrology section below for more details.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Front moves through the area early in the day, which is not entirely
favorable for generation of surface-based instability and a more
appreciable severe threat as the strongly-forced convection moves
through. Nevertheless, the degree of shear is large (0-6 km bulk
shear in excess of 60 kts and 0-3 km SRH in excess of 300 J/kg)
near/south of the retreating warm front. Certainly cannot rule out
damaging gusts or even a tornado (though the threat of tornadoes
seems low given the marginal surface-based instability). Main
convective line should move out of the area by late morning.
Threat of training convection and locally heavy rain exists, with an
isolated instance of flash flooding plausible. Flash flood watch
continues through 6 pm, though the threat will likely be over before
then. Main threat appears to be with small streams and in urban
areas, and the timing is concerning given the Monday morning
commute. For these reasons, decided a watch was prudent despite the
somewhat marginal setup. See the hydrology section for more details.
As the surface low scoots to the northeast near/west of the I-95
corridor during the morning, cold air aloft will move into the area
as the midlevel low approaches the region. Instability showers
(perhaps even with thunder) will likely develop upstream of the
convective line by afternoon, as depicted in most all of the
guidance. Maintained chances of this along/northwest of the I-95
corridor in particular, given this area's closer proximity to the
midlevel vort max.
Temperatures will probably begin to fall during the afternoon as
colder air filters in upstream of the cold front. Used solely hi-res
guidance for temperatures during this period, as precipitation
effects, frontal placement, and potential for rapidly changing sky
conditions in the afternoon warrant little use of statistically-
derived guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The strong low which brought the significant weather in the near
and short term portions of the forecast will be N/NE of the region
Monday night. While the fronts will have passed through the area
and all organized precip will be done, there is still the possibility
for some scattered showers under the upper low. We therefore have
slgt chc or low chc pops for the much of the area Monday night and
Tuesday. This scenario is being shown by both the GFS and EC models.
Below normal temperatures are expected this period with lows in the
30s and highs Tuesday only in the mid/upper 40s (north) and low 50s
for the Delaware Valley, srn NJ and Delmarva. Gusty winds 15 to 25
mph expected.
Fair weather is expected from Tuesday night into Wednesday as high
pressure arrives across the area. It will be a bit warmer than
Monday/Tuesday, but still slightly below normal for mid-April.
Highs will generally be in the mid/upper 50s north/west and
low/mid 60s south/east. These values will be 2 o 4 degrees below
normal.
Another low pressure system will approach the area later Wednesday
and last into Thursday evening. The system will be progressive,
so even though the low is depicted by the models as being
rather strong, it will not have alot of moisture to work with.
We therefore have mostly chc pops in the fcst for Wed night/Thu
and slgt chc pops into Thu night. Temperatures will remain
mostly at or a little below normal this period. The warmest day
will be Thursday (near normal) with mid/upper 50s for highs
across the north and low/mid 60s over Delmarva and srn NJ.
High pressure from Canada builds in for late this week and into the
weekend. Mostly fair weather is expected with a continuation of below
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
This evening...MVFR/IFR (or possibly LIFR) at all terminals. Showers
will continue (lightning possible later this evening but threat
still too low for TAF mention). Winds easterly 15 to 20 knots with
higher gusts. Southeasterly low-level wind shear should develop late
this evening and will likely affect all terminals by 06Z. Low to
moderate confidence.
After midnight through Monday morning...A line of showers and storms
should move through the area between 09Z and 14Z, with LIFR
conditions, torrential rain and erratic winds likely as the heaviest
portion of the line moves through. Lightning is anticipated
near/south of PHL but less probable to the north (where the
potential is too low for TAF mention at this point). South to
southeast low-level wind shear will strengthen just in advance of
the line, potentially exceeding 55 knots near/southeast of PHL.
Conditions are expected to improve slowly to MVFR after the storms
pass. Moderate confidence.
Monday afternoon...Improvement to VFR, though scattered showers may
develop near/northwest of PHL. Winds becoming southwest or west
around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Potential for some erratic
winds/gusts around showers. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Mon night thru Wed...VFR. Few showers psbl N/W Mon night/Tue.
Wed night and Thu...Mostly VFR. Sct showers.
Thu night/Fri...VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Easterly gales are basically occurring everywhere now, except at
buoy 44009, which may be just far enough south to miss the strongest
gusts. Gale Warning continues everywhere.
Models show a relative minimum in wind gusts this evening before
winds turn southeasterly/southerly and strengthen overnight through
Monday morning. Widespread gales are expected in advance of a
line of storms moving through the area between 4 AM and noon.
Erratic/severe wind gusts and torrential downpours are possible
with these storms.
After the line of storms passes, winds should gradually diminish
from south to north, with small craft advisory conditions likely
during the afternoon on Delaware Bay and the Atlantic Delaware
coastal waters. Gale conditions may linger on the New Jersey coastal
waters for most of the afternoon before conditions improve by
evening.
Outlook...
Monday night/Tuesday morning...Low end SCA conditions.
Tuesday thru Friday...Sub-SCA most of the time. Near SCA seas
and a few showers possible Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF looks quite substantial during the 06Z to 12Z period, especially
near/northwest of the urban corridor, where 6-hour totals of 0.75-
1.5 inches are likely, with locally higher totals probable with the
strongest convective cores and with any training convection that
occurs. Flash flood guidance is high, and our thinking is that any
flash flooding threat would be isolated. However, nuisance/urban
flooding is probable, and the timing of the main line of convection
moving through the area (generally after 4 AM) means that impacts to
the morning rush may occur. In coordination with WFOs BGM/OKX,
hoisted a flash flood watch from the Philly metro northward into the
southern Poconos and northern New Jersey from 2 AM to 6 PM Monday,
with the main threat being associated with the primary convective
line moving through late tonight and Monday morning.
Flash flood guidance is on the high side (about 1-2 inches in an
hour) in most of the area (lowest in the urban corridor); however,
with anomalous precipitable water, considerable moisture convergence
via a very strong low-level jet impinging upon the approaching cold
front, and contributions from upslope flow, should any training
convection occur within the main line, 1-hr FFG could be met in
spots.
One of the primary concerns is the timing. With the main convective
line moving through just before or during the morning commute, heavy
rainfall may cause some traffic headaches. The nature of this event
suggests flood issues would be with flashy small streams and in poor-
drainage urban areas. Mainstem river flooding is not anticipated at
this time.
Total forecast rainfall accumulations in the watch area are
generally 1.5-3 inches, with 1-2 inches expected elsewhere (possibly
somewhat lower in the far southern portions of the county warning
area).
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing astronomical tides associated with the approaching
new moon in combination with increasing anomolies as the result of
an established onshore flow will be the primary drivers for minor
to moderate flooding along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Monday
afternoon. An offshore wind shift later Monday is then expected
to end the threat of coastal flooding across the area.
A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the northern NJ coast
(Middlesex, Monmouth, and Ocean Counties) for the high tide this
evening and the high tide Monday morning. It may turn out that
the inlet areas and coastal streams experience slightly higher
water levels with this system, but the ocean front areas should
approach or exceed established moderate flooding levels as well.
Heading south,anomolies are expected to decrease slightly, so
coastal sections in the southern portions of Ocean County may
only see minor flooding, depending on how all the components of
this weather system play out.
Further south, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the
remainder of the New Jersey coast (Atlantic and Cape May Counties),
the Delaware coast, and all of Delaware Bay, for the high tides
this evening and Monday morning.
There is also the potential of minor flooding along the Delaware
River and upper Chesapeake Bay. For these locals, there is a
greater concern for the Monday morning high tide cycle, given an
increasing southeasterly flow regime between now and then. We will
continue to monitor this situation and issue later Advisories, if
necessary.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Monday through Monday
afternoon for PAZ054-055-061-062-070-071-103>106.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Monday through Monday
afternoon for NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for NJZ021>025-
027.
Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT Monday for NJZ012>014-020-
026.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for NJZ016.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for DEZ002>004.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ450>453.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ430-431-454-455.
&&
Synopsis...O'Hara
Near Term...CMS/Gorse
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...CMS/Gorse/O'Hara
Marine...CMS/O'Hara
Hydrology...CMS
Tides/Coastal Flooding...JJM