Heavy Snow in Nevada, November 24 to 25, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
244 PM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through
tonight and into Saturday morning as a winter storm system
progresses through the state. Precipitation is expected diminish
Saturday from north to south allowing drier conditions persisting
through Monday. An active weather pattern will return by Tuesday
as another low pressure system moves through the region.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday. Pacific moisture
streaming into the region combined with a short wave disturbance
moving into coastal OR/WA will generate precipitation through as
least Saturday morning across mainly the northern half of NV. Mid-
level warm air advection persists across the region gradually
eroding any potential for significant valley snow accumulations
through Saturday. However, travel impacts are still expected
especially early Saturday morning when surface temperatures begin
to fall below freezing as a cold front moves through northern NV.
This could lead to accumulating snow fairly quickly on higher
elevation roadways and especially summits/passes.

Snow: The event will be very elevation dependent as far as snow
accumulations are concerned. Impacts will mainly be to to
mountains and higher elevations of northern Elko county. Up to a
foot of snow is expected across northern Elko county above 7000 ft
while valleys will see maybe a couple of inches. Road surfaces are
still relatively warm but this will change early Saturday morning
as a cold front moves through the northern part of the state. This
will pose a flash freeze threat. Also, frontogenetic forcing along
with a dynamic short wave will promote narrow bands of heavier
snow from midnight into Saturday morning. Therefore, snow squall
potential exists and would affect mainly SR-225 and US-93 from
Jackpot to Wells.

Winds: Cloud cover will inhibit daytime convective mixing limiting
the strongest winds to higher mountain ranges with wind gusts of
50-60 mph common along peaks. As the cold front moves through
Saturday morning, expect downslope winds to develop and intensify
across eastern Elko county and West Wendover area. A wind advisory
remains in effect for these expected winds.

Temperatures will remain rather mild through tonight remaining
above freezing for many valley locations through at least 09Z
before the cold front ushers in sub-freezing temperatures from
north to south before sunrise.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday.

The beginning of next week will be a dry period as a ridge
translates across western CONUS. This ridge will then depart the
region on Monday to be replaced with an active weather pattern
that has multiple winter storms.

Tuesday through Friday.

The pattern for the remainder of next week will be active with
multiple winter storms moving across NV. The first system will
arrive on Tuesday bringing renewed showers across the region. This
system will arrive from the northwest and spread southeastward
through Tuesday. The system will then depart eastward on Monday.
This system will be fairly moist and can produce over half a foot
of snow in the mountains. The valleys on the other hand should
remain above freezing for the system and see mostly rainfall. The
next and more potent system will quickly follow the last storm
arriving late on Wednesday. The system will produce falling snow
level the will reach the valleys floors although fairly slowly.
This will help to mitigate some snow amounts in the valleys. The
greatest amount of showers should occur during thursday afternoon
and evening hours. This could leave a couple of inches of snow in
the valleys and half or more foot in the mountains. The system
will be departing on Friday with snow showers slowly diminishing
through the day.

Temperatures will be cold through next week with overnight lows
ranging from single digits to the positive 20s. Highs will slowly
fall through next week from the 40s on Sunday to 30s by friday.

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.AVIATION...A winter storm is moving through the region impacting
all terminals. Gusty winds will accompany the system and affect KEKO,
KWMC, KBAM, and KELY throughout today and into tomorrow. Low
clouds will accompany the system with MVFR or lower conditions
possible. Rain and possibly some snow showers will impact KEKO,
KELY, KWMC, and KBAM through today and into tomorrow. Mountain
obscurations will be present on numerous ranges throughout the
state.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Northern
Elko County-Southwestern Elko County.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Saturday for Southeastern Elko
County.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range.

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